American Fortune Life

The US stock market has rebounded since the mid-March, when Andy began to buy a US stock. Although there are many b-folds in the process, it still counts out of a strong b-bounce. But after entering June, the US stock market began to Go down again.

Some analysts have even begun to expect the stock market to decline for a long time, especially as the performance disclosure period moves forward, the results announced by companies have disappointed investors.

U.S. and European stock markets closed lower on Friday as consumer confidence fell short of expectations. So far, the US and European stock markets have fallen for 4 weeks.

The performance warnings of listed companies and the declining consumer confidence in the United States have highlighted concerns about the economic recovery and possible weak second-quarter results. In addition, oil prices continued to fall, and US crude oil futures fell below $ 60, triggering investors to sell some energy stocks.

"Although there is some positive news, the main concern is that we are still in recession." Alvet's list calmly explained to Andy the problems currently facing the US financial market.

"According to some deflationary data obtained by think tanks, although commodity prices have fallen, demand has not picked up, inventory has gradually decreased and unemployment has continued to rise.

The S & P 500 index closed at a twelve-year low in mid-March and rose by about 40 percent at one point, but the index fell by 7 percent from the high on June 12, and the stock market is expected to continue to fall for a period of time, especially With the progress of the performance disclosure period, the results announced by enterprises have disappointed investors.

Last Friday's trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange could also explain some problems. It is very light, with only more than 900 million shares, which is much lower than the daily average estimated volume of 1.5 billion shares last year. NYSE rising and falling shares The number of homes is. "

Listening to Arvitelli introducing various data and analysis to himself, Andy roughly browsed the financial data in his hand and nodded with satisfaction. Compared with the money he made, he didn't care about it. Besides, the funds invested in stock index futures have long been withdrawn. Now most of his holdings are blue chip stocks, and he is not prepared to move in a short period of time, so he is not concerned about short-term fluctuations.

"Since the shock is coming down, let's change things as they are." Andy closed the documents in his hand and left them on the desk beside him. These financial data need to go back and look carefully, which is about his assets. He can't be sloppy, even if he is very convinced that his think tank will not eat him inside and out, but he has to know something.

"By the way, just to take advantage of the opportunity to adjust and continue to repurchase Starbucks stock, my ultimate idea is to complete the ownership of more than 50% of Starbucks shares and take complete control. I value the future of Starbucks."

"I have never stopped the repurchase of Starbucks stock. I gave this job to Bardstone. After all, they can use short-term operations for laundering, they can well control the price of attracting funds, and prevent the stock price from appearing too large. Movement, causing some unnecessary trouble. "Alvitede reported.

Andy nodded and groaned. He looked at Al seriously and asked, "Al, what do you think of the retail industry? It's a supermarket, a convenience store."

Hearing his own boss asking about the industry, Alwitt frowned and began to think quickly. Andy didn't bother to say anything in a hurry, but quietly waited for his answer.

"The retail industry is very competitive, especially the barriers to entry are not high. Therefore, there are actually not many high-revenue companies with very high profits. In particular, the rise of e-commerce has caused a huge impact on the traditional retail industry. The third largest retailer er, large department store chain jpeey, Macy's financial crisis, the stock price was cut. In response, the rapid development of e-commerce giant Amazon.

In the context of the impact of e-commerce and the transformation of traditional retail stores, I don't think that entering the retail industry can bring much benefit to the boss. Instead, it will release funds, time and energy because of increasingly fierce market competition. It's a little bit worthy, after all, the retail industry is not an industry that can see profits in the short term. "

After hearing Al's analysis and opposition to the suggestion, the expression on Andy's face has not changed. It seems that he has been mentally prepared and guessed Al's attitude towards this matter.

In fact, when he entered the retail industry, he had this idea when he stayed in the foot basin. The long-term prosperity of 7-11 convenience stores really made him a little jealous. Although the memories of previous life stayed in the heyday of e-commerce, But as his vision and insights grew, he also came up with a different idea.

The current stage of Internet e-commerce prosperity will be followed by the era of mobile Internet. The online + offline model is bound to be the future trend, and offline sales must return.

In fact, this is the inevitable of commercial development. When the e-commerce industry breaks away from the barbarous era and begins to develop steadily, after the competition between e-commerce enterprises has also become normal, the e-commerce market will inevitably be partially saturated. The most direct impact of the e-commerce market is the decline in market profitability, coupled with the increase in consumer willingness and offline profitability, offline sales will also become a general trend.

In fact, the retail industry has not actually undergone substantial changes so far. The distinction between new and old retail is actually the retail carrier and the retail target is constantly evolving.

To put it plainly, the online and offline mode of the e-commerce model mainly depends on price and traffic dividends. With the huge Internet demographic dividend, the cost of traffic has been greatly reduced, and online platforms cannibalize users at the expense of gross profit. But over time, when one day, merchants and consumers tend to be saturated, the dividends of traffic no longer exist. The cost and gross profit of online e-commerce are almost the same as those of offline stores. When the online and offline prices are similar, the advantages of e-commerce are no longer, and humans will once again dominate the transaction experience completed in person.

Do n’t blow anything from accurate recommendations to user analysis, what Internet thinking is used to run e-commerce, armed with data, to be honest, when the price is the same, nothing is useless, and any data is useless. When the price is almost the same, offline Experience consumption is the most fundamentally familiar consumption mode. Instead of cumbersome waiting, unknown quality and troublesome returns, people will be more willing to see and feel the goods, and more happy!

Of course, the premise of everything is that there is not much difference in price.

The core of the retail industry is nothing more than cost and efficiency. When the cost of online and offline comes to the same starting line, when the offline exhausts all means to improve efficiency and break the game, the online life will be sad.

Well, it ’s still a little too far to say that it will take at least ten to fifteen years before the return of offline sales. After all, there is still a mobile internet era just beginning, and the cold winter of offline sales is the current reality. From a macro perspective, the current retail industry is indeed quite depressed, and physical brick-and-mortar stores around the world have encountered a wave of store closures.

"The stock market investment ratio that the think tank took out at the beginning, ww. Has 3% of the market value and 1% of Wal-Mart. I understand that Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the United States after all. The introduction at the time was that it relied on membership fees to make money, and the difference in selling goods could be very low, and even some goods were sold at a loss. Right? "Andy asked, looking at Alvitre.

"Yes, Costco is the world ’s largest sales chain-member warehouse-type mass merchandiser. It also became the third-ranked retailer in the United States this year. Than fewer items of goods, while charging members an annual fee.

Costco initially only provided services to small businesses, but later found that it would be more profitable for companies to selectively provide services to non-corporate individual members.

At present, Costco operates more than 452 stores in the world, spreading across seven countries. There is no doubt that Costco is the leader of warehouse and wholesale stores.

What our think tank values ​​is that membership is the foundation of Costco's business logic. Whether it is using member fees to support operations, or large purchases to reduce costs, a considerable number of members is required. This is a long process to accumulate members and cultivate brands. A large and highly loyal membership group is the strongest barrier for Costco.

That's why we decided to recommend to the boss to buy its shares. Its growth space is very large ... "

"Then buy it!" Andy said with bright eyes, his eyes became extremely sharp.

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