2050 superpower

Chapter 9 China's Choice, G4 or G27 (3)
In September 2006, at the Chinese Enterprises Summit jointly organized by the China Enterprise Confederation and the World Federation of Finance and Economics, Naoichi Takemoto, the Deputy Finance Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, said: "The cooperation between the two countries (China and Japan) also includes cooperation with India. Cooperation is extremely important to us." At the same time, he also said: "In a sense, China's support has enabled Japan's economy to recover." Sibal, Minister of Science, Technology and Earth Sciences of India, said at the meeting that the two countries When talking about trade between countries, he said: "We are now almost at 9 billion US dollars in trade volume, and it will reach 187 billion at the end of this year. Next year, China may become India's second largest trading country and almost become the largest trading partner. "At the same time, Sibal believes that China and India should become cooperative partnerships, and they can also become partnerships.Richard, Minister of Trade and Industry of Egypt, said at the meeting: "The United States is Egypt's largest trading partner, but now in terms of trade growth, our trading partnership with China is constantly growing... Now we are sure to ask for more Consider China and Asia, and consider our share in these markets in the future.” When talking about the failure of the Doha round of negotiations, the only European representative present at the meeting, a professor of international political economy at the International School of Management Development in Lausanne, Switzerland Rahman said: "I think with the failure of the Doha round, we have seen the clash of civilizations and so on, which is what we are worried about... A few months ago, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, these people were talking about China. They believe that China’s influence is very large, and the influence not only promotes their growth on investment and trade, but also has other influences.” Regarding the reasons for the Doha round of negotiations, Rahman asked : "Last month, the U.S. trade representative came to China and accused the Chinese government of saying that China should play a more active role in the Doha talks, but in fact, who is killing the Doha talks? What?...The double standards they adopt, whether they are Americans, Europeans, or Japanese, their attitudes are thought-provoking.” Regarding the issue of taking responsibility for the world, Wu Jianmin, president of China’s Foreign Affairs University, said: “Japanese China's economy is actually much larger than China's economy, but now China's economy contributes much more to world growth than Japan's. What does this mean? In other words, China's rise is sharing the results of this growth with the world .”

Facing the predicament of the "post-crisis era", when countries around the world are discussing economic issues, the United States is concerned about its own military hegemony.When the United States withdrew its troops from Iraq, countries all over the world thought that the world could calm down from now on.Everyone is wrong.The United States has started a new round of military stimulation in the Yellow Sea and South China Sea in Asia with a "pre-emptive strike".Although the United States used the "North Korean threat" as an excuse to dance the sword, it actually meant China.The reason why the United States wants to do this is because China has not become a global responsibility bearer that "conforms to the interests of the United States"; moreover, China has not followed the will of the United States in decision-making on important world affairs.In order to maintain its status as the "one word" in the world, the United States began to contain China and engage in open confrontation.If the United States wants to compete with China, it feels that its IQ is not enough; if it uses force directly, it will not find a reason, and it will not dare to act rashly.So the United States can only wave its sword in front of China, and dance solo with the help of a few "children".

All countries in the world now understand that, judging from the comparison of military strength between China and the United States, although it is impossible for China to challenge the military of the United States, it is impossible for the United States to defeat China at China's doorstep.Then why does the United States still want to show off its power in front of China?Its intention is very clear, it is nothing more than repeating the same old tune, continuing to follow the path of the Cold War and blocking China.So why is the United States blocking China?This is because China has become the second largest economy in the world, and has a very important discourse power in the world, and the hegemony of discourse power has affected the hegemony of the United States.China is the largest trading partner of the United States, and the collapse of China's economy will also seriously hurt the United States; and if the Chinese economy declines, the world economy will suffer even worse.These unfavorable consequences can be seen by everyone.So why does the United States still do such immoral things?This is because in the era of "virtual capitalism", how much foreign exchange reserves a country has determines the size of its power in the world economy.China now holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and the United States is worried about this, making it feel that its control over the world economy has been divided up by China.The political logic of the United States is: the interests of the United States are above all else.It is this kind of hegemonic logic that the United States has conducted more than 1000 nuclear explosion tests by itself, and has not allowed other countries to conduct nuclear tests; it has more than 5000 nuclear warheads, but requires other countries not to have nuclear weapons; its own army is spread all over The whole world is controlled, and other countries are not allowed to have overseas military presence; they abuse force against other countries, but shout that other countries threaten them, and so on, and their hegemonic behaviors are countless.However, the United States is "inexpensive and old", and the domestic economic recession makes him only able to support the facade.

Paul Kennedy said in his book "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers": "A country's ability to exercise and maintain global hegemony ultimately depends on its productivity." Therefore, we can say that a country's military strength and political strength are determined by Backed by economic strength.The current economic situation of the United States simply cannot support its ambition to dominate and control the world. If it insists on going its own way, the final result will be that the United States will decline to the end.

China is different from America.The world needs China's presence and status in the world. Only in this way can we achieve multilateral win-win results instead of single-win US hegemony.Since China's reform and opening up in 1978, China has gradually revised its domestic laws to integrate with the world, and has become the most law-abiding member of the international community.China has proved to the world that it is a "responsible major country" with its own efforts.It is precisely because China is a "responsible big country" that the French "Le Monde" published an article entitled "What would we do without China" on January 2008, 1, acknowledging that "China's economy has made significant The achievements have brought vitality to the world economy", and said that "the West should thank China"; at the 4 Beijing Summit of Global Think Tanks, with the topic of "finding countermeasures under the world financial crisis", "asking for China".China is a peace-loving country, and China's rise will always be a blessing to the world.In Asia, through APEC, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China-ASEAN cooperation, ASEAN-China-Japan-Korea cooperation, and Greater Mekong sub-regional cooperation, China is connected to other Asian countries to jointly create an Asia of peace, stability, equality, mutual trust, and win-win cooperation. The environment has contributed to the prosperity of Asia.Internationally, China has signed more than 2009 international conventions, participated in more than 300 international organizations, and played an important role in international mechanisms such as arms control, trade and investment.

When China is working hard for world peace and prosperity, what is the United States thinking? On August 2006, 8, at a hearing held by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Thomas Christensen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said: "China is using its growing influence Whether the approach taken at that time will be consistent with the interests of the United States... This is a question at stake for American 3st century diplomacy, and the answer to this question will have a large bearing on what we will see in the next few decades. What kind of world."

Unlike the U.S. government, which only cares about the security of its own hegemony, the world's media are more concerned about China's impact on the world economy.The Wall Street Journal of the United States believes that China is a major factor that prevents the world economy from falling into the "abyss".The US "Time" magazine said: "China is the fastest growing major economy in the world - it has stimulated the economic growth of all other economies." The French "Le Figaro" said: "Thanks to China. The economy The recovery has been confirmed and spread to all developed countries, thanks in part to the vitality of the Chinese economy." According to the British "Financial Times", the Chinese economy has become one of the most important sources of hope in the world.Mexico's "Supreme" believes that whether South American countries can get out of the crisis depends largely on the continued development of China's economy.

China needs the world, and the world needs China.So, what would the world be like without China's participation?To this question, we answer this question with a quote from the Los Angeles Times: “Today’s issues, including Iran and North Korea’s nuclear issues, climate change, and global economic recovery, rarely succeed without China’s participation. Solve it in a timely manner.” In fact, at this stage, if the United States wants to make its own economy prosperous, it must first make China’s economy prosperous.China is the largest trading country of the United States, which is the helplessness of the United States.

§§§ Section [-] New understanding of "Hide your strengths and bide your time"

In Chapter 1, we told the story of "cooking wine and talking about heroes".This story doesn't end there.Liu Bei has two sworn brothers, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei.They were very dissatisfied with Liu Bei's "no ambition" performance, so they said: "Brother doesn't pay attention to the world's major affairs, but learns from villains, why?" Liu Bei replied: "This is not what the second brother knows." Therefore, the author of "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms" explained: "Xuande (that is, Liu Bei - author's note) also guarded against Cao Cao's murder, so he planted vegetables in the back garden and watered it himself, thinking it was a way to hide."

The word "Tao Hui" originally came from "Old Tang Book·Xuan Zong Ji", which records: "In the Taihe Huichang Dynasty, things became more and more hidden, and people lived and traveled in groups. There is nothing to say." A novel "Dang Kou Zhi" from the Qing Dynasty in China.In the 76th chapter of this book, when Yun Wei warned Xizhen, he said: "Nephew, don't blame the old man for saying that for a person like you, if you don't fight, let it go. If you go here, you have to hide your strength and bide your time, and wait for the time."

Today's China implements the strategic policy of "keeping a low profile".This strategic approach started with a speech by Deng Xiaoping.

On September 1989, 9, when Deng Xiaoping analyzed the international situation with several leaders of the central government, he said:
"For the international situation, it can be summed up in three sentences: the first sentence is to observe calmly; the second sentence is to hold our ground; the third sentence is to deal with it calmly." A fundamental national policy." Then Deng Xiaoping clarified the "three forever" principles: "China will always stand on the side of the third world, China will never seek hegemony, and China will never be the leader." Later, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China summarized Deng Xiaoping's speech To "keep a low profile".

Since then, in the "Report on China's Military Power" released by the U.S. Department of Defense for the first time in 2002, Deng Xiaoping's strategic guidelines such as "observe calmly, deal with it calmly, hold our ground, hide our strengths and bide our time, never take the lead, and make a difference" were given. Special attention.The United States interprets "hide your strengths and bide your time" as: "hide OUI'capabilities and bide OUI'time. "It means in Chinese: "Hide one's ability and wait for the opportunity to make a comeback." In addition, some foreign books or articles translate "hide your strengths and bide your time" as:
"Hide one's ability and pretend to weak." Chinese means: "Hide one's ability and pretend to be weak."

Political language has always been sensitive.The Chinese government felt that the United States had misunderstood the meaning of the term "hide your strength and bide your time", so it began to make a special explanation. In 2006, a delegation from the China Institute of Foreign Affairs visited the United States.During the visit, the delegation made a special correction to the US government's translation of "hide your strength and bide your time" in the "Report on China's Military Power".While explaining, the delegation asked the United States to pay attention to this issue, so as to avoid strategic misjudgment by both sides and affect the overall situation of the stable development of Sino-US relations.

What is the meaning of "keeping a low profile"?Due to the political sensitivity, there has been confusion in the interpretation of this idiom at home and abroad.The "New Century Chinese-English Dictionary" published by Foreign Language Teaching and Research Press in 2006 translated "hide one's capabilities and bide one's time" into "hide one's capabilities and bide one's time".This English explanation is almost the same as the translation in the US "China Military Power Report".

For this reason, in September 2009, the entry "Hide your strengths and bide your time" was added to the sixth edition of "Ci Hai" published by Shanghai Dictionary Publishing House.The "Ci Hai" interprets "keep a low profile" as "hide your talents and keep them from being exposed".In addition, the "Ci Hai" also explained related words, such as: "Tao" means "bow bag", and has the meaning of "hiding"; "; "Taohui" refers to "restraining the edge and hiding the whereabouts of talent".

The explanations of "keeping a low profile" are so complicated, in order to unify the concept, we define what Deng Xiaoping said "keeping a low profile" in a political sense: don't show off yourself too much, don't stimulate others, and in the process of recognizing and correcting your own shortcomings, use Self Zhou Zheng, balanced development.This explanation is consistent with Deng Xiaoping's thinking.Here we quote some quotations from Deng Xiaoping for correction.

Deng Xiaoping once said: "We must not be the leader, this is a fundamental national policy"; "China will never seek hegemony, and China will never be the leader"; Criticize and accuse others casually, don't say anything that is too much, don't do things that are too much"; "We are not afraid of anyone, but we will not offend anyone."Perhaps Deng Xiaoping felt that these words made people sound weak, so he added: "We must maintain our image of being independent, not believing in evil, and not afraid of ghosts. We must not show weakness.

The more afraid you are and the more you show weakness, the more aggressive you will be.It's not that people treat you better when you are soft, on the contrary, people look down on you if you are soft. "

Therefore, some scholars have flexibly dealt with the "Deng Xiaoping-style" meaning of the term "keep a low profile", saying that "keeping a low profile and making a difference" is not static, but should keep pace with the times, constantly develop and improve.

Beginning in 1989, Eastern Europe underwent drastic changes, the Berlin Wall fell, and regimes in one Eastern European country after another changed hands.Not only did Eastern Europe change, but political turmoil also occurred in China and the Soviet Union.Under this situation, in September 1989, Deng Xiaoping made a speech on how to deal with this international situation during discussions with several central leaders.Deng Xiaoping's speech was summed up in three sentences: observe calmly;Deng Xiaoping asked other leaders of the Central Committee not to rush, but to calm down, calm down, calm down again, concentrate on hard work, and do our own things well.

With the rapid development of the economy, China seems to be reluctantly "being" displayed in front of the world, and "keeping a low profile" has become a leaf in front of itself, which only serves as a psychological comfort.Probably China believes that as long as you follow the rules of "melon fields and plums", you can avoid getting angry.But the fact is that you hold the world's largest foreign exchange reserves and at the same time the world's second largest economic power, your every move has already begun to affect the world.Therefore, the world can't see you or pay attention to you.Under such circumstances, China's excessive self-effacing will only attract more suspicion from the world.

The question for China now is whether it dares to stand among the world's great powers.

(End of this chapter)