2050 superpower

Chapter 32 Germany and Japan's Injuries (4)
The debt crisis in Europe is not accidental, but inevitable.Indebtedness is a hallmark of capitalism.In all countries in the world, it can be said that there are very few companies without debt. This is because there is no great development without "big debt".It can be said that without large-scale borrowing, there would be no past, no present, and no future of capitalist countries.Borrowing is in some sense a loan.Loans are the driving force for the operation of capital, but if the fire burns too much, not only will the economy fail to develop, but wealth will be wiped out.

It is impossible for established capitalist countries, especially European countries, not to understand this truth.

The United States is naturally elated when the euro crisis emerges.American financiers and the media have spoken out against the euro with one voice.American "speculative predator" George Sauros gloated that the challenges facing the euro surpassed the Greek debt crisis, and the structural flaws in the design of the euro would make the euro face even greater difficulties in the future.The New York Times of the United States published a comment and put forward the "original sin theory". The "New York Times" believes that the designer had forced the Nordic countries with better economic, fiscal and monetary conditions and the southern European countries with poorer conditions to establish a regional currency union beyond sovereign countries. A wrong start will only lead to one tragic end.The US "Time" magazine even believes that the days of the demise of the euro zone may be numbered.

What American experts and media say is not unreasonable.Germany, which understands this well, is worried about the future of Europe.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: "On the one hand we should remember that the euro is our common currency, but on the other hand we must also recognize that the crisis should be dealt with at the root of the problem, which is Greece's huge fiscal deficit and its credibility. Lost." Regarding this crisis, Germany's attitude is that there is no provision for emergency assistance to other countries in the EU treaty, and the best way to help Greece at present is that Greece must "do its own homework."At the same time, Germany proposes to amend the "Constitution" and implement the measure of temporarily expelling the EU for countries in debt crisis, so as to ensure the safety of the EU and the euro.This German proposal was immediately opposed by France.France's reason is of course high-sounding, but its essence is out of its own considerations. His economic performance is not very good, and he is afraid that this measure will be used on his own head in the future.

Due to opposition from France and others, Germany had to drop this proposal.As mentioned earlier, the EU finance ministers meeting reached a rescue agreement of 7500 million euros, but Germany set harsh conditions for the activation of the rescue agreement, that is, the agreement can only be activated in particularly serious cases, and at the same time, it needs to be approved by the euro zone. Unanimous consent of all countries.However, due to the inability of the countries in the euro zone to solve the problem of huge funds, French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed that 2/3 of the loans should be borne by the economies in the euro zone, and the rest should be provided by the International Monetary Fund.

Facing a common crisis requires the concerted efforts of EU members.The reason is simple, but the 27 member states of the European Union are not monolithic, and it is difficult to do so in the struggle for power and profit.Britain is extremely sensitive to the expansion or strengthening of Germany and France in the European Union or the euro area, and smaller countries are particularly worried about losing their sovereignty or political independence.In this regard, Otmar Ising, one of the founders of the euro, said: "Creating a currency union without establishing a political union is an act of putting the cart before the horse." Although Merkel insisted that the International Monetary Fund should A stance to play a major role in the Greek aid package, but she could still pay a heavy price by agreeing that euro zone countries will raise most of the money.France and the European Central Bank had opposed turning to the IMF, fearing it would damage the euro's credibility.

Facing the double crisis of debt and the euro, people in the EU are fluctuating and each is doing his own thing. On March 2010, 3, Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned Europe in a speech in Bucharest:
“While the U.S. and Asian economies emerge from the global recession, Europe is in danger of being relegated to the second tier of the world economy. … If the Europeans don’t act quickly, then perhaps in 10 or 20 years the competition will be between the U.S. and Asia Europe will be left aside." Hearing Kahn's words, Germany's heart was cold.

§§§Section [-] requires more than ambition

The formation of a superpower requires both subjective and objective conditions.A country can become a great power, but not necessarily a superpower.Japan and Germany are such countries.

Japan can defeat all of its Asian opponents in World War II, but it is impossible for it to become a superpower in Asia.

The same is true for Germany, but unlike Japan, it can become a superpower in Europe. If it wants to become a superpower in the world, it can only be achieved indirectly through the European Union.This is especially true for Japan, which has no hope of becoming a world superpower if it separates from Asia.However, Japan's current mentality is that it does not regard itself as an Asian country, which is a tragedy for Japan.

To be a superpower, there must be hardware conditions, that is, a large territory and a large population.Looking at the world, except for the United States, only a few countries have the possibility of becoming a superpower, and they are China, India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia.You may not be clear about the situation in Indonesia, so here we give a brief introduction.

With a land area of ​​190 million square kilometers and a population of 2 million, Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world.Due to the large number of islands in Indonesia, there are 17508 islands, making it the largest archipelagic country in the world.Although Indonesia is a large country, its population composition is complex. There are more than 100 ethnic groups, of which Javanese accounted for 47%, Sundanese accounted for 14%, Madura accounted for 7%, Indonesian Chinese accounted for 5%, and Indonesian Chinese accounted for 27%. There are 200% of other small ethnic groups with more than [-] ethnic languages.Due to Indonesia's national conditions like loose sand, countries around the world are not optimistic about him, and it is impossible to become attached to the status of a superpower.Judging by the hardware, although both Germany and Japan have the ambition to become the world's superpowers and have strong economic strength, their hardware is far from meeting the requirements.

First of all, Germany.With a population of 8190 million, Germany is the country with the largest population in the European Union; its land area is 35 square kilometers, which is only 7% ​​of the area of ​​France. If Russia and Turkey are not counted, it is the fifth largest country in Europe; its population consists mainly of Is German.Although its land area only ranks fifth in Europe, its population ranks first. In terms of hardware, Germany can become a superpower in Europe.

Let's talk about Japan.Japan has a population of 1 million, ranking 28th in Asia and 6th in the world; with a land area of ​​10 square kilometers, it only ranks 37th in Asia, and it is an island country; its population composition is single , only the Japanese nation.No matter how you look at it, it is impossible for Japan to become a superpower in Asia.

Whether it is a regional superpower or a global superpower, in addition to hardware conditions, software is equally important.To become a superpower requires at least three aspects of soft power: first, it must be an economic power and powerful; second, it must have a unified culture and strong national cohesion; , military, cultural and so on have great influence.

From the perspective of soft power, both Germany and Japan can or have already met the requirements.It is precisely because both Germany and Japan have strong soft power that they have the ambition to become a world superpower.However, God's will tricks people, and their congenital insufficiency makes them can only look at the ocean and sigh.

Is there really no hope for Germany and Japan?Not entirely hopeless, just keep your expectations low.It cannot become a world superpower, but it can also play the role of a superpower.Germany is working hard in this direction, while Japan is still pursuing the dream of a superpower alone.

The topic of this book is a superpower, so what is a superpower?A superpower is one that can play a decisive role in a certain geographical area without being influenced by regional forces. Such a country is a superpower.For example, the United States, a world-class superpower, economically, because of its large land area, large population, and abundant resources, can become a large independent market and operate completely independently of the world; in terms of military affairs, the United States can It attacks most of the countries in the world, but it is difficult for it to be broken by the military forces of other countries or regions; in terms of technology, the United States, as a technological power, leads the development of world technology in many aspects; in politics, due to the above Strong comprehensive strength gives him a strong voice, and his every move has a great impact on the world.

In contrast to Germany and Japan, it is impossible to achieve the comprehensive strength of the United States.Although Japan can compete with the United States in terms of soft power, as a small island country, it is like Antai in Western mythology, with all its power but no use for it.

Zeus had a son called Alcides, who was the greatest hero in Greek mythology. He was named Hercules by the prophetess Pythia, which means "the one who has made great achievements because of being persecuted by Hera." .One day, Hercules came to Antai's territory and competed with Antaeus.In the contest, both sides are surprised by the strength of the opponent.Although Hercules kept knocking Antaeus to the ground, each time Gaia brought Antaeus back to strength.Hercules discovered this secret, so he lifted Antaeus high, let his feet off the ground, and then strangled him tightly in his arms, and finally strangled Antaeus to death.

Japan, with its strong comprehensive strength, is like Antai, based on a small island.If the world locks up Japan, its life will be lost.In the past, when the "body" was still slender, Japan's sense of crisis was not strong, but in order to dominate the world, although the land cannot be expanded, the population can reproduce freely, so the population has grown from tens of millions in the past to 1 million now , the density reached 28 people per square kilometer, and the government is still encouraging births.The small island of Japan cannot support this behemoth. In order to obtain resources for survival, he has to conduct trade exchanges with other regions to maintain his livelihood.Therefore, Japan is both a developed country and a very fragile country. No matter what happens to the world economy, it will be a stormy sea for Japan.Such a fragile country should maintain good relations with neighboring countries, especially China, so that it can get a good living environment, but Japan is not like this. After "World War II", Japan still did not think about repenting and continued its dream of dominating the world.

The shrewd Japan always does stupid things on matters of principle, and Germany has learned a lesson.Germany understands the truth that with its own land area and population, it can only become a superpower in Europe, and it is impossible to realize the dream of a world superpower by going it alone.Based on this principle, Germany does not want to be a superpower in the world, but to play the role of a superpower in the world through the growth of the European Union. This is why Germany strives to promote European integration.Facing Japan, the most developed country in the world, Germany secretly laughed. Japan is far more powerful than Germany, and it is still in Asia, the world's largest, most populous, and economically developing country. resource.

From the bottom of its heart, Germany hopes that Japan will always carry on for "honor".

There is such a saying in the futures market: "There is no one who is hacked to death, only the one who is carried to death." , As long as the set stop loss line is passed, the stop loss should be closed as soon as possible, so as to minimize the loss, which is called "cutting" in the industry.However, some futures speculators do not abide by this discipline, insist on sticking to the end, and do not want to suffer losses, so with the mentality of possible rebound, they insist on not cutting their positions, and finally they are beaten out by their opponents, losing all their money. It's called "carrying".Germany knows that if it does not make a confession to the world, it will never make it to the top, so there is a scene of apologizing to the world.But Japan wants to save face and suffer, and insists on not pleading guilty. As a result, the world only allows Japan to participate in the economy, not politics, making it an economic giant and a political dwarf. As long as Japan does not plead guilty, this state cannot be changed.

(End of this chapter)