2050 superpower

Chapter 31 Germany and Japan's Injuries (3)
Faced with this complicated situation, how Germany, which is already strong enough to shoulder international responsibilities, will face its own repentance will be a difficult question to answer.

§§§ Section 20 What Japan has lost is not only [-] years
From 1955 to 1991, Japan's economy has developed rapidly, and its GDP has increased by 52 times.This "Japanese miracle" of doubling annual growth has planted the seeds of crisis for the Japanese economy.It can be said that the "Japanese Miracle" was blown up by real estate.The sharp rise in land prices has seriously restricted Japan's infrastructure construction and limited the further improvement of Japan's competitiveness.For this reason, the Japanese government carried out two major reforms on the land system in 9: one was to introduce a land tax, that is, the landholder tax. Compared with the previous municipal fixed asset tax, the nominal increase was 1991%, and the actual increase was More than 100%; the second is to promote the 200-year fixed-term leasehold right, and re-trade after the expiration.After this system was implemented in 50, land prices in Japan began to fall, and the long-term land price bubble based on chaebol monopoly and land financing finally burst.

The bursting of the land price bubble led to the bursting of the entire Japanese bubble economy, leading to a long period of economic depression, so people called the 20s the "lost decade".This state of malaise has continued until now, and many Japanese have doubled the "lost 90 years" to "10 years".

After the "bubble" was punctured, although Japan was still one of the largest economies, its per capita GDP fell from No. 1993 in 2 to No. 23 now like a "roller coaster".The serious consequences did not stop there, with Japan's total national debt reaching 2009 trillion yen in 882.Japan's industrial competitiveness also had problems, and it fell from the top position in the world's home appliance industry in the past, ending the Japanese economic era. '

During the bubble economy period, the Japanese enjoyed the benefits of economic growth, and bonuses were higher than wages, so everyone regarded spending money as a task that must be completed.Every day after get off work, people get together to drink and party.A face-saving man, even if he has nowhere to go, is unwilling to go home early, for fear that his wife will laugh at him for having too little social life and being unpopular, so he can only waste time in restaurants with money in his pocket.And women are crazier than men, they can't wait to go shopping with their wallets on their backs, and the crazy purchases make the big Japanese shopping malls so hot that no one slips through the net.

As if everything was a dream, the bursting sound of the "bubble" woke people up.Now, the Japanese have less and less money in their pockets, and the business of major shopping malls is in a mess.In this indifference, Japan's most famous "Mitsukoshi" supermarket had to merge with "Isetan" because it couldn't sustain itself, and "Takashimaya" was also bleak and lost popularity. It is said that Japan will have ll in 2010. A department store is closing.Because the Japanese locked their wallets tightly, Japan's domestic demand was seriously insufficient. The long-term insufficient domestic demand in turn seriously affected the recovery of the Japanese economy.

In addition to the problem of economic recovery in Japan, there is a more serious problem - the aging of society.In 1965, the unmarried rate of men aged 30 to 35 was 14%, and it soared to 3% in 2005; It soared to 47% in 1, and it is estimated that this rate will be even higher in 1965.Because the Japanese often work long hours, they have no time to find a marriage partner, especially the "grass-eating men" born in the 25s, who neither want to fall in love nor take on any family responsibilities.Statistics show that one fifth of college graduates in the spring of 29 cannot find a job.

In 20, Japan's population over the age of 65 accounted for 23% of the total population, and it has entered an aging society.Since 2010, Japan's annual population has decreased by 20 to 6071'. According to this forecast, the elderly population will rise to 2020% by 29.The increase of the elderly population not only increases the burden of social security, but also creates a series of social problems.Many Japanese are pessimistic about the prospects, thinking that not only 20 years have been lost, but that Japan may lose even more if major changes do not take place.

On April 2010, 4, a well-known Japanese writer published a novel titled "Young People Find Jobs in China" on the headline of "Yomiuri Shimbun".In the novel, the author gave a pessimistic description of Japan in 27, saying that the salary of Chinese college students was many times higher than that of Japan at that time.Although it is only a novel, and it is a future novel, it reflects the disappointment of the Japanese people about the future from one aspect.In disappointment, the Japanese look at China, which is separated by a strip of water, with sympathy, hoping that China can contain the economic bubble and not repeat the mistakes of Japan.The reason why Japan is so concerned about China's economy is because the stable development of China's economy can give Japan a life-saving straw in times of crisis.

The Japanese have given up hope in politics, because the realization of political promises requires a huge price. In 2009, Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama promised to increase social security expenses during the election of the House of Representatives. Although he had promised, the government had no money.In order to realize this promise, Japan issued national debts as high as 53 trillion yen, which exceeded tax revenues: in 5, 2010 trillion yen of national debt was issued according to the preliminary budget, and at least 44 yen of national debt will be issued in 3. billion yen.Although Japan's Finance Minister Naoto Kan said that we should do our best to control it, it is difficult to predict what the future results will be.Due to the economic downturn, the throne of the Japanese Prime Minister has also become cold. Before Hatoyama could warm up his chair, he replaced the new Prime Minister Naoto Kan.If the Japanese economy continues to slump, the Japanese government will have to implement austerity fiscal policy, otherwise the national debt will soon exceed the 2011/'billion yen mark, and some experts even predict that Japan will go bankrupt in 44.Such a pessimistic prediction has made Japan's "lost 3 years" a trend towards 10007 years.In fact, Japan's loss in international politics is much longer than 2018 years.

Both Japan and Germany initiated the "World War II", but after the defeat, the two governments' attitudes towards the war were completely different.The vast majority of people in Germany believe that Germany committed crimes in World War II and have made deep introspection; while the Japanese government does not recognize Japan's war crimes.As the same Axis powers back then, how could there be such a big difference in people?This may be caused by cultural differences.

There are different opinions on why Japan did not plead guilty.One way of saying is: In Eastern culture, pleading guilty and surrendering are both a kind of humiliation, and reputation is more important than life, so there is a saying "I would rather die than surrender".For example, after Japan was defeated in World War II, the real name of the "Japanese Surrender Document" issued by it was "Declaration of the Empire of Japan"; now they use the word "End War" instead of surrender.

Therefore, if you look at it literally, Japan's "surrender" is actually an armistice agreement.The reason why the Emperor of Japan, the first criminal of the war, was not prosecuted in the international court is because the Emperor is the soul idol of the Japanese nation, and prosecuting the Emperor is an insult to the Japanese nation.The second argument is: Japanese people believe in Shintoism and believe that the emperor is a god, and gods cannot make mistakes.Therefore, Japan deduces from this logic that Japan is not guilty.The third argument is that Japan believes that the "World War II" they launched was just.No matter what reason Japan refuses to plead guilty, it will make its "honor mistaken for 'honor'" and Japan will lose its international political status for at least 60 years.

It is precisely because Japan refuses to recognize the crimes committed during the "World War II", even though its economic level and technological level are second only to the United States, it is impossible for it to obtain the corresponding international status.Japan does not seem to be aware of the seriousness of this problem, and is still obsessed with striving for international political status for itself.For example, in order to gain international political status, Japan, like China's Taiwan, has engaged in money diplomacy.In order to gain international political status, Japan has undertaken 19% of the membership dues of the United Nations, which is more than the total dues paid by China, Britain, France and Russia, and second only to the United States. On September 5, 4, Japanese Foreign Minister Machimura said in a speech at the United Nations: "I hope that the status and responsibilities of each member state can be properly considered to the greatest extent through the sharing of funds." How much to arrange the status of various countries in the United Nations, that is, euphemistically requesting that Japan be granted "permanent" status.In order to gain international political status, Japan clings to the thigh of the United States. In response to the call of the United States, Japan promised to provide 2005 billion US dollars in aid for the reconstruction of Iraq after the end of the second Gulf. In May 9, Japan, Germany, Brazil and India formed a group of four countries, advocating the expansion of permanent members of the Security Council. This proposal was opposed by Italy, Mexico, South Korea and Pakistan.Why has Japan proposed "permanent admission" since 17, but it has not been realized until today?One of the most important reasons is that Japan did not pass the international community's "political review" of him.There are three reasons why Japan did not pass the "political review":

One is that Japan has not yet conducted a deep reflection on the "World War II" issue, and has not apologized to the governments and people of the countries and regions that were harmed by its invasion.Second, the Japanese government dignitaries, including the prime minister, pay homage every year to the Yasukuni Shrine where the war criminals of World War II are placed. This has greatly hurt the feelings of the people of East Asian countries.Third, Japan has repeatedly revised its history textbooks to beautify its history of aggression.

Therefore, we say that if Japan does not face its past correctly, its "political review" will never be passed. often".Japan without repentance will lose the days to come forever, not just 20 years.

§§§[-] Europe that makes Germany sad

After the revival of Germany, together with France, it wants to lead the European Union to a greater Europe.But when Germany, with its revived freshness, was ready to do a great job, it was discovered that what he was facing was an old Europe.Looking at these European countries, they are all over [-] years old and are in another type of "aging".Seeing this scene, Germany, like Liu Bei in the Three Kingdoms period of China, led a group of old, weak, sick and disabled with their families on the battlefield, and couldn't help but sigh to the sky.These "old, weak, sick and disabled" are not only unable to charge forward, but are a heavy burden; not only a burden, but also an unstable factor in the "poor is thinking of change" in the EU.Originally, the European Union is an organization of supranational sovereignty, but although some member states have joined the European Union, they are unwilling to give up their national sovereignty at all.Are you really unwilling to give up?no.In some countries, as long as the United States hands over a piece of meat, they will ignore everything.For example, the United States proposed to provide economic assistance to countries such as the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, and Poland, but the additional condition was to agree to deploy missile defense systems in their countries.Since there is money, let's put sovereignty aside first, so the wish of the United States was successfully realized.In this regard, French President Jacques Chirac warned Eastern European countries not to follow the United States and not to play with fire when Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic applied to join the European Union.But Chirac's warning did not work. Soon the leaders of ten Central and Eastern European countries, including Bulgaria and Romania, issued the "Ten-Nation Declaration", expressing their support for the US position in the Iraqi crisis.

Faced with this situation, Germany looked helpless.Not only that, but France, which is fighting side by side with itself for the great cause of the European Union, also makes Germany feel sad.The contradiction between Germany and France is also a question of sovereignty and a question of the United States.French President Sarkozy once said that he himself is a pro-American faction, so after taking office, he began to mend the stalemate between France and the United States after 2003.At the same time, Sarkozy will not give up the principle of "independence". On some substantive issues, such as environmental protection and the clash of civilizations, France does not care about the opinions of the EU, and only sticks to its own views and positions.While Germany was running for European unity, France, governed by Chirac, rejected the "EU Constitutional Treaty" through a referendum.

This German comrade-in-arms and France, which is also the engine of European integration, has become the main obstacle to the further integration of Europe.In order not to bankrupt European integration, Sarkozy proposed to "shrink" the existing draft treaty and formulate a "pocket constitution" that only needs to be approved by the parliaments of various countries.Sarkozy's proposal let Germany breathe a sigh of relief, and European integration was saved from bankruptcy. In October 2007, under the impetus of Germany, France and other countries, the "Constitutional Treaty on the European Union" was adopted in its "simplified version" of the "Lisbon Treaty", which further promoted European integration.

Although the difficulties have been overcome, the situation of "being in Cao Ying and heart in Han" in Eastern Europe still makes Germany sleepless.This angered Russia because Britain and some countries in Eastern Europe agreed with the United States to deploy a missile defense system in their countries.Russia threatened to withdraw from the INF Treaty and the Treaty on Conventional Weapons in Europe, and at the same time threatened to point Russia's nuclear missiles at Europe.For a while, Europe became a powder keg in the US-Russia confrontation.Former French President Chirac once pointed out that the "anti-missile program" may cause division in the European continent.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States implemented a policy of openly suppressing Russia, while Europe hoped to establish a partnership with Russia in order to achieve a stable Europe.It now appears that how to face Russia, how to adjust relations with Russia, and what position the EU should take in the face of the sharp confrontation between Russia and the United States have become major issues that Europe must face.Facing these major problems, Britain and those countries in Eastern Europe are chomping on the "meat" sent to their mouths by the United States with their eyes closed, and they don't care about Europe's life or death.

In 1999, the long-awaited euro mechanism was launched, and in 2002, the euro officially replaced the original national currency in the euro zone.Since then, the idea of ​​cross-sovereign currency has become a reality, and the euro has quickly become the most important international currency besides the US dollar.In fact, as early as 1944, British economist Keynes proposed the idea of ​​creating a cross-sovereign currency at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in Leyton Woods.However, the "World War II" was not completely over at that time, and the weak Europe had to rely on the United States, a powerful country, for protection. Under the strong suppression of the United States, this proposal could not be adopted.

A few years after the birth of the euro, it was devastated by the Greek debt crisis.Since then, there have been debt warnings for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. The total debt of these five countries exceeds 38000 trillion euros, of which Greece is 2360 billion euros, Ireland is 8670 billion euros, Spain is 11000 trillion euros, Portugal is 2860 billion euros, and Italy is 14000 trillion euros. .The debt crisis of these euro zone countries has shaken the overall stability of the euro zone and affected its position in the global monetary system.The euro crisis broke out with the debt crisis of the five countries. In May 2010, the EU finance ministers meeting was held in Brussels, the capital of Belgium. After more than 5 hours of negotiations, the finance ministers of the EU member states reached a rescue agreement with a total of 10 billion euros to help the euro zone member states that may be in debt crisis , to prevent the spread of the Greek debt crisis, to defend the status of the euro.

(End of this chapter)