2050 superpower

Chapter 3 During the Warring States Period, the BRIC countries were born (2)
In 1914, the First World War broke out in Europe, forming two opposing groups, one was the Allied Powers consisting of the German Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the other was the Entente Powers consisting of Britain, France, Italy, the Russian Empire, and Serbia.As the intensity of the war intensified, both sides became tired and began to be in a stalemate.At this time, the United States, which was watching coldly, provided 30 billion US dollars in loans and 60 billion US dollars in exports to the Allies. If the Allies were defeated, the United States might lose everything.Therefore, when the two sides were in a stalemate, in 1917, the United States, as a new force, joined the camp of the Allied Powers, which made the balance of power between the two sides seriously tilted towards the Allied Powers.Seeing that the situation was over, the Allies asked the Allied Powers for peace in 1918, and the First World War came to an end.Through this war, European countries began to look at the United States, an American country, differently, and the status of the United States rose sharply.

In 1929 there was a global economic depression.The Great Depression brought economic panic to all capitalist countries in the world, the unemployment rate of workers rose sharply, and farmers were forced to give up farming.The United States was also seriously affected by the Great Depression. For this reason, US President Roosevelt launched the "Hundred Days New Deal", which improved the economic situation, but it could not fundamentally reverse the economic decline.When the United States was at a loss, on September 1939, 9, Germany suddenly attacked Poland. Britain and France declared war on Germany on September 1, and the United States repeated its old tricks and issued the "Declaration of Neutrality" on September 9. On September 3, Germany, Italy, and Japan signed the "Germany, Italy, and Japan Triple Alliance Treaty" in Berlin, forming the Axis Powers. As a sequel to "World War I", World War II broke out.

Germany, Italy and Japan launched the Second World War, the essence of which was a struggle for world hegemony.

For this point, it was clearly expressed in the alliance treaty they signed.In the alliance treaty, the three countries agreed: "Japan recognizes and respects Germany and Italy's leadership in establishing a new order in Europe"; "Germany and Italy recognizes and respects Japan's leadership in establishing a new order in Greater East Asia."

The outbreak of World War II saved the U.S. economy. At the beginning of World War II, the United States maintained a neutral position by "keeping a low profile"; however, in June 1940, Germany occupied France and then launched an attack on Britain, which changed the attitude of the United States. On December 6, 1940, U.S. President Roosevelt delivered a speech, proposing that the United States could lend arms to anti-fascist countries, and said that "the United States must become the arsenal of democratic countries." In 12, the U.S. Congress passed an important act of providing assistance to anti-fascist countries - the "Lend-Lease Act". vital national government".According to this, the United States has provided more than 17 billion U.S. dollars in supplies to dozens of anti-fascist countries such as Britain, the Soviet Union, France, and China. Although it is not a cash transaction, it is enough for the United States to make money on the books. On December 1941, 500, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in the United States, inflicting heavy damage on the U.S. Navy.Under these circumstances, the United States declared war on Japan on December 1941.On the same day that the United States declared war on Japan, Germany and Italy, allies of Japan, declared war on the United States, and the United States also declared war on Germany and Italy tit for tat.So far, the United States, which has been hovering outside the "World War II", has been dragged into the war.

After the United States joined the "World War II", in 1944, it formed an anti-fascist alliance with other countries to jointly attack the Axis military bloc headed by Germany and Italy.Under the attack of the Allied Forces, the Axis Powers began to disintegrate, and many member states withdrew from the Axis Powers organization, and even fought back.On the battlefield, the German army retreated repeatedly on the east and west fronts, and finally led the war to the mainland, and finally ended the war with Germany's unconditional surrender.On the eve of the end of "World War II", the United States began to plan for things after the war.During the entire process of "World War II", the United States was basically not affected by the flames of war except for the Pearl Harbor incident. Moreover, "World War II" overloaded all American industries and stimulated economic prosperity.In stark contrast to the United States, the other warring countries have suffered greatly from the war, their economies have already collapsed, and they all rely on the support of the United States.The United States, which was "fattened" by the Second World War, has greatly increased its vitality and bullishness at this time, arbitrarily planning for itself the future of the world.The United States has this strength because it is the largest and only creditor of the "World War II", with a lot of money and power, and its right to speak is so important that no country dare not ignore it. In July 1944, as the world's largest creditor, the United States convened representatives of 7 countries or governments in the world to gather in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, and reached the "International Monetary Fund Agreement" and established the International Monetary Fund.

On December 1945, 12, the Bretton Woods Conference was held again. At this meeting, under the leadership of the United States, countries reached the "Bretton Woods Agreement." The signing of the "Bretton Woods Agreement" made the U.S. sovereign currency, the U.S. dollar, the status of the world's settlement currency. The currencies of other countries use the U.S. dollar as the benchmark and implement a fixed exchange rate system. At the same time, a fixed ratio between gold and the U.S. dollar is also implemented. .

After the United States gained the dominance of the world economy, it began to seek military control of the world.In order to make the "friendship" between the United States and Europe established in "World War II" last forever, on April 1949, 4, the United States signed the "North Atlantic Treaty" with Western European countries, and established NATO, which only the United States led.The purpose of establishing NATO is to compete with the Eastern European bloc headed by the Soviet Union.

The "Convention" stipulates that once a member state is attacked, other member states can respond in time and jointly launch a counterattack.

So far, the formation of the Bretton Woods system ended the chaotic situation in the monetary and financial fields before the war, and effectively maintained the normal operation of the post-war world currency system; the establishment of NATO created a situation of confrontation with the Warsaw Pact, and thus A stable situation with tension has been formed.Both the United States and the Soviet Union won the battle for world status, but the Soviet Union was inferior to the United States in terms of economic status.

As one of the greatest philosophical books in China, "Book of Changes" has a hexagram like "the dragon has regrets, and it will not last long".Whether it is the United States or the Soviet Union, after reaching its peak, it must be prosperous and decline.

Since the late 20s, the victimized countries in World War II have gradually risen in economic recovery. In contrast, the economic competitiveness of the United States has been weakening day by day, and a global "dollar surplus" has emerged.The status of sovereign currencies in the world is determined by the economic conditions of sovereign countries.Economic growth can increase the status of a country's sovereign currency in the world, and vice versa.The weakening of the U.S. economy has begun to melt the strength of the U.S. dollar.When the credibility of the US dollar began to decline, countries began to sell US dollars and exchange them for gold in the United States.With the large outflow of gold, in 50, the gold reserves of the United States could no longer support the exchange of dollars against the United States. Under the run, the United States was forced to announce the implementation of a free floating mechanism for the comparison between gold and the dollar.Based on this move by the United States, the European Economic Community, Japan, Canada and other countries confronted each other and announced the implementation of a floating exchange rate system.Beginning in 1971, the hegemony of the U.S. dollar was shaken, and the Bretton Woods system carefully constructed by the United States completely collapsed.

Although the United States' control over the world economy is gradually weakening, its military suzerainty in NATO has not been shaken. On December 1991, 12, the Soviet Union disintegrated and the Warsaw Pact was dissolved.A 26-year-old rival has finally collapsed, making America's supremacy in the world seem even more unshakable.British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said: "I have a huge Russian bear on one side, a huge bison on the other side, and a poor little British donkey in the middle." With the threat in his throat, he can finally let out a long breath of relief.

After the United States became the world's hegemon, it was naturally overjoyed, but he did not expect that the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact would make it lose a lot of meaning in life.First of all, as a product of the Cold War, NATO, the stage where the United States uses to demonstrate its military strength, has lost its existence value.

Although NATO has lost its value, the United States will not allow NATO to disband along with the Warsaw Pact.Value is created, so in the "creation" of the United States, NATO not only did not disband, but continued to grow in the eastward expansion.At a time when the ambitions of the United States were growing, NATO's elder brother, the European Union, had a different heart. On December 1999, 12, at the EU Summit in Helsinki, a plan was drawn up. By 11, the EU would form a rapid reaction force.As soon as this move came out, some non-EU countries also expressed their willingness to participate in this rapid reaction force.Faced with this situation, the United States expressed great concern, fearing that the foundation of NATO would be shaken, so it warned the European Union "not to go too far."Although the United States has exerted pressure on the EU, the reality has not changed because of this. Some countries in the EU that are unwilling to follow suit with the United States have begun to make their own voices. On January 2003, 2003, the European Parliament passed a resolution against the US unilateral military action against Saddam Hussein in Iraq. On February 1, France, Belgium and Germany objected to the US request for NATO to provide military assistance to Turkey.The EU's behavior made the United States very angry. It considered it a "disgrace" and "put NATO into crisis."

Although the control of the United States in the world has been relatively weakened, its military supremacy has not been shaken.After the end of the Cold War, the mainstream of the world is to pursue peace, pursue economic growth, and strengthen cooperation and exchanges among countries.A non-violent world economy is not the living environment of the United States. What it needs is a turbulent world, and only in a turbulent world can we show our talents.The direction of development of the world runs counter to America's aspirations.After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the strength of the US dollar was challenged.The wealth accumulated by the United States during World War II has been wiped out after 30 years of extravagance, and it has reached a point where it is difficult to maintain without borrowing.Under the circumstances of "three highs" of deficit, trade deficit and unemployment rate, the economic situation of the United States began to deteriorate, and the outbreak of the subprime mortgage financial crisis made the situation worse, dealing a fatal blow to its fragile bubble economy.The United States, once the world's largest creditor country, has become the world's largest debtor country. Its economy is suffering from "disease" in the intersection of "diarrhea" and "constipation".Regarding the poor economic situation in the United States, on August 2010, 8, Lawrence Ketrikoff, a professor of economics at Boston University, published an article on the Bloomberg website. I don't know".

Faced with the new changes in the world, the United States still clings to the "old seasons" and sleeps in the glory of the past dominance;At this time, the big man of the United States has lost the wisdom he once had. In the declining situation, the only thing he can do is to show the world his abnormally developed "muscles".The weakness of the United States is an indisputable fact. Under this situation, countries around the world, international economic organizations, and political organizations began to resist the oppression of the United States and compete with the United States.The United States will not easily give up its dominance of the world. It will use military power to let the countries of the world know that what is burning in its own life is a scorching sun. If it is not happy, it can dry up everything in the world.

§§§ Section [-] Declaration of future power struggle
Although the disintegration of the Soviet Union was expected, the world-class "earthquake" it triggered was still unexpected.After the "earthquake", the world order was left with incomplete "ruins" and unbalanced tension, so rebuilding the world order became a top priority. As the only political, economic, and military superpower in the world, the United States will be responsible for it. The responsibility to rebuild the world order is a matter of course. However, the European Union, a friend in the past, is now hard to share; Want to occupy a place in the new world.

The nations of old Europe formed a union without the United States.Not only are they political and economic alliances, but they have also taken a step forward that the United States does not want to see, that is, military alliances.Although the quick reaction force formed by the EU is only used for joint self-defense among member states and has no conflicts or conflicts with NATO, as a regional military group, it is inevitable that there will be risks of turning against each other in the future.

In Asia, besides Japan, a developed country, there are two major countries, China and India. Although Russia is located in Asia, its heart belongs to Europe. This nondescript intercontinental status can only temporarily exclude it from Asia. outside.In Asia, although China has no intention of competing for hegemony, it is inevitable that other countries have worries; India, as an ancient civilization, has suffered from foreign ravages. After nearly 150 years of unremitting efforts, it finally forced Britain to agree to India and Pakistan in 1947. independent.Both China and India are world-class big countries, but they are not powerful countries, and both belong to the third world countries.After India's independence, the East imitated and copied the political systems of Western countries, but "the head wants to move but the body can't." Although it has a dream of strengthening the country, it is always entangled in the confrontation between traditional culture and modern politics.Some other small countries in Asia, in order to avoid being disturbed by the breath of big powers, formed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to strengthen their resistance. In December 1998, the Sixth ASEAN Summit adopted three documents, the Hanoi Declaration, the Hanoi Action Plan and the Statement on Bold Measures, and decided to speed up the process of ASEAN Free Trade and ASEAN Investment Zone.In addition to ASEAN, there is also an alliance in Asia that is bound by religion, namely the League of Arab States. After the end of World War II, the United Nations assigned the Jews who had no country to establish a state in the Middle East and named it Israel.The establishment of Israel in the Middle East aroused the anger of the Arab countries, so for various reasons, five large-scale wars broke out between the Arab countries and Israel, and Israel won five battles and five victories. interest.The Gulf region of the Middle East is the world's oil depot, embodies the common interests of all countries in the world, and has always been the focus of the international community.Under this kind of focus, the Gulf region has become a powder keg, and there are always wars and chaos.Although they belong to the same religion, the Arab countries have not been harmonious because of this, and frequent internal strife has allowed foreign forces to drive in.For this reason, in 12, the 2001th summit meeting of the Arab League issued the "Amman Declaration" and the final statement, calling on the Arab countries to realize national reconciliation, accelerate the pace of economic integration, and fully support Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon in recovering their territories and striving for national rights. struggle.

(End of this chapter)