2050 superpower

Chapter 19 The Cursor's Return to Russia (3)
Although Russia's naval power is still not comparable in size to the heyday of the Soviet Union, it is still a formidable and powerful force after technological updates.Now Russia's Northern Fleet will serve as the main construction part of the Russian Navy due to its proximity to its economic and political center; the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Sea Squadron will also be strengthened.Proceeding from the pursuit of the "offshore defense" strategy, the Russian Pacific Fleet will gradually shrink the defense line of troops.But regardless, from the Baltic to the Pacific, the Russian Navy remains the world's second-strongest naval power.

§§§ Section [-] The revival of the oil empire
After entering the 21st century, mankind has ended the barbaric economic era in the past. No matter how powerful a country is, it is impossible to use power to establish colonies and support its own economy through plunder.At the same time, the military is no longer used for aggression, but for self-defense and deterrence.This is especially true among major countries.We can see that from the beginning of the Cold War to the present, the world no longer has the danger of wars between major powers, only the "wars" between superpowers and superweak countries that are not called wars.

After the end of the Cold War, the United States became the world's military monopoly. It crushed "small sampans" with huge "battleships".The raid on Panama, the invasion of Liberia, the first Gulf War, the military intervention in Somalia, the invasion of Port-au-Prince, the Kosovo War, the attack on Sudan and Afghanistan, the bombing of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the air strikes on Yugoslavia, the second Gulf War, these impressive "records" of the United States, They were all obtained when the opponent had no ability to resist.For other big and powerful countries, the United States can at most fiddle with the weapons in its hands at the door of others, not daring to make real moves.

As mentioned above, the role of the military has taken a backseat in the world. Except for the United States, which is still keen on force, other countries rarely mention military issues.In the dance of the United States, the word "military" often appears in anti-terrorism activities. The United States is fighting terrorism everywhere, making terrorist organizations "emerge in endlessly."In any case, the world has entered an era of economic competition, not an era of military competition.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia decided to follow the Western path.In order to establish a market economic system and adapt to the requirements of international economic integration, Russia has promulgated a series of laws and decrees to abolish the state monopoly system and establish a foreign trade liberalization system to gradually bring itself in line with international standards in all aspects.In order to transform the national system from socialism to capitalism, Russia adopted a painful "shock therapy" and abruptly diverted its own economic train to another lane.After this debilitating "treatment" ended, Russia's economy regressed for more than ten years.Throughout the 20s, the Russian economy was in a prolonged recession.In this regard, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his article entitled "Russia at the Turn of the Millennium": "Russia is currently facing very complicated economic and social problems. Throughout the 90s, Russia's GDP dropped by almost 90%. Its total volume is only equivalent to 50/1 of that of the United States and 10/1 of that of China." Now Russia's economic composition is so monotonous that it loses its flavor.Russia's foreign trade has declined from being the sixth largest trading country in the world during the Soviet period to No. 5 today, which is only 20% of the past trade volume.In Russia's foreign trade, only oil and gas exports and arms exports are left to attract attention.

Russia is a resource-rich country, whose output value accounts for 30% of industrial output value, creates 54% of fiscal revenue and 45% of foreign exchange income for the government, and contributes 3% to GDP growth.In terms of international trade, the export of oil, natural gas and other resources accounted for 68% of Russia's exports, making Russia a major exporter of resources.The oil and gas industry is not only the pillar industry of Russia, but also an indispensable trump card in Russia's diplomatic activities.

Energy is the blood of the world economy, an important factor to ensure the safe operation of the national economy and military, and also one of the factors that affect the changes in the international political and economic situation.For any country, especially a big economy, ensuring its own energy security is already an important part of national strategic decision-making.We have seen that the Middle East, known as the world's fuel reservoir, has attracted international attention because it has become a base for countries around the world to obtain oil. In order to seize control of the Middle East, countries are fighting openly and secretly in politics and military affairs. , making it a "powder keg" in the modern sense.Russia is also an important oil-producing country in the world, but no one dares to salivate over its huge body.In this sense, Russia's oil supply will not be affected by international politics and military affairs, and it is a stable source of oil and natural gas for all countries.

Now Europe's natural gas is supplied by Russia. If Russia stops the supply, the winters in European countries will be cold and the political situation will be chaotic.Now, China is negotiating with Russia to build an oil pipeline from Russia's Angarsk to China's Daqing to ensure China's oil demand.

As soon as this news came out, it immediately became a hot topic around the world, and it touched the "nerves" of many countries.

After Japan heard about this, it immediately sent a secret letter to the Minister of Energy and Economic Development of Russia, implying that if Moscow agrees to build the oil pipeline from Angarsk to Nakhodka proposed by Japan first, Japan will not only provide loans, And guaranteed to buy 100 million barrels of Siberian oil per day.Under the "favor" of China and Japan, Russia is full of air. In 2003, Russia issued the "Russia Energy Strategy until 2020", which clarified the status of "energy is the foundation of Russia's economic development and a tool for implementing internal and external policies".Facing the world energy crisis, Russia uses its oil policy to show its national strength through coercion.It can be said that the United States uses its invincible military power to obtain benefits, while Russia uses its status as an energy supplier to obtain benefits.

Russia not only has resource advantages, but also geographical advantages.Russia's territory straddles two economic hot spots in the world, one is Europe and the other is Asia.Facing Europe, Russia is supplied with oil and gas from the Caspian Sea region; facing Asia, it is supplied with oil and gas from Siberia.No matter who it is for, Russia will fully tap the value of its energy advantages.

On October 2004, 10, Putin made it clear in an interview with a Chinese reporter: “Russia will first consider the national interests of Russia and the interests of partner countries when it comes to the direction of the eastern pipeline.” So, how did Putin What about using oil and gas trade to consider national interests?His thinking is this: if the "Anda" line or "Anna" line is built, the customers are only China and Japan, and there is no choice. It is easy to be controlled by China and Japan; "Oil pipeline, so that "the east is not bright and the west is bright", so that in addition to China and Japan, its customers can also have other countries around the Pacific Rim. At that time, even if China and Japan do not buy Russian oil, they will still There are other clients.

We don't know whether Russia will have hope if it continues to insist that the Soviet Union will not fall, but if the Soviet Union is lost, Russia will lose hope.What it lost was its status as a core member of the Soviet Union, its status as a world superpower, and the possibility of a showdown with the United States in the economic and technological fields.Now Russia can only rely on oil and gas to realize its imperial dream.

Since the wave of economic globalization has swept the world, the engine of the economy needs more power.Perhaps the financial economy is too aggressive, leading to successive financial crises. When the world has become a little numb to the Asian financial turmoil and the US subprime mortgage crisis, the sovereign debt crisis within the European Union followed one after another.It can be said that the world economy is suffering in a bear market.In sharp contrast to this, although the world crude oil price fluctuates under the manipulation of the oligarchs, no one can stop its firm rise.

Facing the fiery and skyrocketing energy market, Russia is like a duck to water, showing its strengths. In 2002, Russia made a plan to compete with Middle East oil and occupy 2010% of the U.S. crude oil market share in 13, thus starting the energy hegemony battle between Russia and Saudi Arabia.In order to win the battle for hegemony, Russia has increased its crude oil production all the way, from the highest daily output before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which accounted for 5/1 of the world's total output, to the highest daily output, which accounted for 3/2005 of the world's total output. On April 4, 26, Russian Energy Minister Viktor Khrystenko issued the "Order on the Construction Steps of the Pipeline System from East Siberia to the Pacific Ocean", officially announcing that the "Tyna" line will be constructed in stages, and crude oil will first flow to China.

Since the demand for oil and gas energy in the world is always greater than the supply, Russia can obtain benefits and benefits other than oil and gas.As far as the construction of oil pipelines is concerned, Japan is ready to provide Russia with US$50 billion in concessional loans and US$20 billion in loans directly for oil exploration.Since Russia's independence, economic cooperation between him and the United States has not made much progress, and energy diplomacy has given Russia new opportunities.The United States is the world's largest oil importer, and about 60% of its oil depends on imports.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's forecast, by 2010, 70% of the oil needed in the United States will depend on imports.Therefore, the economic cooperation between the United States and Russia will be inevitable, which is what Russia expects.

(End of this chapter)