2050 superpower

Chapter 12 India: We will copy everything in China (1)
§§§ Section [-] India, the "elephant" floating in the universe

India is a country that pursues art. In its world view, the universe, the "big dry world", is full of orderly beauty.When we talk about dance, we always talk about the so-called most elegant dances such as ballet, rumba, jazz, Latin, national standard, etc., but there is one dance that we ignore, that is Indian dance.Indian dance is the dance with the highest cultural content in the world, and it is unparalleled in the world.Dancers of Indian dance express and interpret everything in the universe with rich facial expressions and body movements.Although the dances of many countries in the world are popular all over the world, in terms of background, they are not at the same level as Indian dances.In India, although its dance is full of beautiful connotations of human beings, the secular reality in reality flies beyond the beauty.India's "good" culture has not been reflected in politics, just like China's traditional culture, there is always a gap between reality and vision, and it is full of turmoil.This phenomenon is not unique to India, it can be said to be commonplace in the world.Faced with the disappointing reality, many people no longer believe in "truth, goodness and beauty", and even blockbuster blockbusters around the world are full of desolation and tragedy.Even so, you don't have to believe in the existence of truth, goodness, and beauty, but you must not desecrate them.

We don't know much about Hinduism, but we should have more say in Buddhism than Indians, because Buddhism has declined in India, and there is only one Nalanda Temple maintained by overseas Buddhists.Buddhism, after countless generations of development and perfection, has formed a perfect closed system and has become one of the national religions of China.In fact, for Buddhism, Japan has more say.In Japan, Buddhism is the only state religion, so their devotion to Buddhism is the first in the world.In Southeast Asia, many ideas come from Buddhism in a subtle way, and Buddhist culture occupies half of the country.Buddhism is very powerful in Southeast Asia. Some people say that if Buddhism is restored in India, it will be stronger than it is now.

It is a pity that India, as a big country with a dream of being a big country and a strong cultural heritage, does not know how to adapt to the world and always tortures itself in pain.In the eyes of the world, both India and China have huge territories in Asia, both have ancient civilizations, and are comparable in many ways.But after digging deeper, we found that there are many fundamental differences between the two.India is an open system and a closed mind; China is just the opposite, a closed system and an open mind.

The world has a deep misunderstanding of India, thinking that India has been domesticated without any wildness after a long history of colonization.When evaluating India, Marx said: "The entire history of India is a history of being conquered again and again. These conquerors built their empire on the negative basis of such a society with no resistance and no change." Therefore, the former President of the United States Bush named one of his kittens "India".After the Indians knew that the scars were exposed, the whole country was outraged. They not only protested verbally, but even stormed the US consulate in Mumbai.Indians to Bush: "Mr. President, make no mistake. Indians are lions, not cats."

In fact, India is neither a "cat" nor a "lion", but an "elephant" floating in the universe. India has not become a "carnivore" in the world.Although India has been conquered time and time again throughout history, Indian nationalism remains strong.Speaking of the history of India, it is a headache.We can only start from the beginning with the term "Ancient India".In ancient times, the geographical scope of ancient India was not the current Indian territory, but the entire subcontinent, including today's Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and other countries; its ethnic composition is very complex, including dwarf blacks, primitive Australians, and Dravids. Tu people, Aryans, Persians, Greeks, Da Yuezhi people, White Huns, etc., in short, including the three major races of yellow, black, and white, there are more than 200 kinds of languages ​​and dialects.When China was unified by Qin Shihuang, ancient India was still falling apart.

In fact, ancient India did not become a unified country until 324 BC - the Maurya Empire. During the time of King Ashoka, ancient India reached the peak of its power.In 30 BC, the Maurya Empire fell, and ancient India was once again in a state of more divisions and less unity.Therefore, except for the Maurya Empire which lasted 137 years and the Guishuang Empire which lasted nearly 100 years, ancient India was in a state of division. Some people say that the history of India is a vague history.

In 1857, in order to resist the oppression of the British colonists, a national uprising broke out in the Indian region, until August 1947, 8, India officially declared its independence.Because of India's peculiarly ambiguous history, there have been many major issues that are also unclear, that is, the issue of territory.This problem has led to many border disputes between India and surrounding countries, which are "constantly cut and chaotic". This has led to a state of hostility between India and China, Pakistan, and Nepal on the borders.The culprit behind this state of hostility between India and China, Pakistan and Nepal is Britain.During the period when India was under British colonial rule, the British included parts of India, China, Pakistan, and Nepal within the sphere of influence of the colony according to its influence.After India became independent, it wanted to take all the colonies designated by the United Kingdom as its own territory and bring them into India.in their own territory.This behavior of India was naturally opposed by China, Pakistan and Nepal.For this reason, India had a military conflict with China, and now India and Pakistan are in a state of military confrontation. Nepal launched the "Great Nepal Movement" to demand that India return the occupied Nepalese territory.

India is a big country, but it is on the fringes of world politics; India is a pious religious country, but it ignores the poverty of its people and spends huge sums of money to expand its armaments.India is ambitious. He seeks permanent membership in the Security Council and implements its policies in South Asia.However, while India is pursuing the status of a big and powerful country, it neither participates in the security alliance led by the United States, nor does it participate in Asian regional organizations such as ASEAN, nor does it form strategic partnerships with China and ASEAN, which are Asian entities.India's "desire for a great power" and "behavior alone" coexist. In this nondescript contradiction, it is difficult for countries in the world to grasp its pulse.

India has many innate conditions that make it a superpower.For example, India is the second largest country in the Indian Ocean region, its market size is second only to China, and its huge cheap labor force can make it occupy a favorable position in import and export trade.In addition, India is also a cultural powerhouse in Asia, and it can have more communication with many countries in Asia.It is a pity that India has so many advantages, but it is abandoned or used inefficiently.

No matter how vague India's image is, one thing can be recognized, that is, the face of a world power that wants to be, because this face is too big to be invisible. In the 20s, India established a maritime command in the Strait of Malacca where it joins the Indian Ocean.This move by India is actually tantamount to setting up a checkpoint between the Strait of Malacca and the Indian Ocean.The Strait of Malacca is a very important waterway, which is almost the main artery of trade between East Asia, Europe and the Middle East.Although India's current naval power is not enough to completely control the entire Indian Ocean, the intention is obvious, that is, to use this illusory hegemony as a bargaining chip in games with other countries.

India's stubborn adherence to the principle of "non-alignment" will not only make it difficult to realize its dream of becoming a powerful country, but will also be threatened by external forces.If India and China join forces, relying on the unique advantages of the two countries' "world workshop" and "world office", they can put aside their previous suspicions and cooperate fully like France and Germany, breaking the Western balance policy's control of Asia and conducting a second cooperation .However, the scars in India's heart are still hurting, and the national policy of "non-alignment" has not changed. It is not easy to realize this cooperation.In fact, there are many cooperations of great significance in Asia that cannot be realized due to mutual suspicion.For example, the China-Russia-India triangular alliance advocated by Russia cannot be realized in the midst of jealousy; China's "one Japan, one China, one India" axial economic model cannot be established due to mutual suspicion.India is always a bit confusing.

We have talked about many problems of India's backward ideology, narrow-mindedness, and lack of a big picture, but the flaws do not conceal the advantages, and India is still an excellent country that is rapidly rising.At present, India is gradually maturing and has begun to abandon the "non-alignment" national policy that kept it isolated, making the space for development more and more large.At the same time, India let go of its arrogance as an ancient civilization and realized that it cannot rely on ancient philosophy and religion to make the world recognize India's greatness, nor can it rely on India's population to become a major country in the world, so it began to accept the civilizations of other countries and seriously Think about the full range of diplomatic issues.

These changes in India have made it on the fringes of world politics, and it has begun to receive attention from other countries in the world.India's economic development model is to emphasize consumption instead of investment, domestic demand instead of export, service industry instead of manufacturing, and high-tech industries instead of labor-intensive and low-tech industries. The economic crisis and recession are more resistant than China, and its economic growth is more resilient, and its economic growth is more balanced and lasts longer.

Although India's GDP ranks only 1th in the world with a scale of 6 trillion US dollars, according to foreign media's forecast, India's economic growth rate may surpass that of China in 12, and its economic scale will surpass that of Japan in 2011 years. .

India now has both the ambition and the conditions to become a superpower, the rest is just a matter of time.As long as India realizes that in order to build a strong India, it must have real strength and form alliances through vertical and horizontal diplomatic means.Any country needs allies. Even if the United States is strong enough to "lonely seek defeat", it is not so strong that it can completely ignore its allies and the existence of the world.Another point that India should pay attention to is that even if it wants to fight a decisive battle with China, it is not what it should do now, because "the mantis catches the cicada, and the oriole is behind", no matter who wins, India or China, it will be eaten by the United States in the end.China is not India's enemy, the real threat to India is the mighty US.Therefore, India should unite with China to fight against the United States; otherwise, if China is really defeated by the United States, India can only fight the United States single-handedly.By then, it will be too late for India to regret.

§§§Second Section 1 Future Global No.[-] Largest Population Country
The population issue is a topic of common concern in the world.From an economic point of view, population is an important resource; from a political point of view, population is an indicator that determines the status of the world; from a military point of view, population is the basic guarantee of a country's military strength.In short, the population issue is a major event for a country.For example, Japan, in the early days of World War II, formulated a population policy in 1940 in order to meet the needs of military expansion, and proposed that the total population should reach 1960 million by 1.If Japan's population does not reach a certain size, it will not dare to launch a war easily.The same is true for China.After World War II, civil war and other natural and man-made disasters, the population of China has decreased a lot.After the founding of New China, China first had to face the threat of the United States, and then increased the threat of the Soviet Union. China had to implement a policy of increasing population.

Population growth has both advantages and disadvantages.The disadvantage is that as the population grows, the resources per capita will decrease.It is for this reason that China implemented a strict one-child policy in the 20s.However, the reduction in fertility rate has brought another problem, which is the emergence of "empty nest" countries, that is, aging societies.This dilemma has always been an insoluble contradiction.

Since it is an insoluble contradiction, we can only make a flexible choice in this contradiction according to the actual situation of a country.Countries with a low economic level generally favor population growth in order to prevent the arrival of an aging society and reduce the burden on the country; countries with a high economic level can control population growth and use their high-level economy to solve the aging problem. problem.However, the land area suitable for human survival is always limited on the earth, so controlling the growth of population is a general trend.

The ideal population status is to keep the population constant. Under normal circumstances, it is most suitable for a couple to have two children.However, in some countries with a low economic level, they will not pursue this ideal state of population, and there will be an abnormal situation where the lower the economic level, the more hopeful the population will increase.The reason for this situation is that as long as the resources are acceptable, the larger the population, the greater the "demographic dividend" and the larger the economic scale.The so-called "demographic dividend" means that a country's working-age population accounts for a relatively large proportion of the total population, and the dependency ratio is relatively low, which creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development and makes the entire country's economy in a state of high savings, high investment and high investment. growth situation.

That is to say, the larger the population, the total economic output can only increase, not decrease. "Dividend" corresponds to "debt" in many cases. Therefore, when a country is enjoying the rich return of "demographic dividend", it also needs to face possible future population "debt".Population "debt" means that because the population cannot grow without limit, when the population reaches a certain limit, the growth of the population must be restricted, and the problem of social aging will gradually appear.Due to the existence of the "demographic dividend", the poorer the country, the more the demand for increasing the population. In addition, increasing the population is also a means for countries with low economic levels to improve their world status.

On November 2008, 11, the United Nations Population Fund released a report on the state of world population in 12.

In the report, based on India's average population growth rate of 2005% from 2010 to 1, after calculation, it is predicted that India's population will reach 5 billion by 2050, while China's population in the same period will be 16. 58 million, India will become the most populous country in the world.

India, like most countries, has the idea of ​​"more sons, more blessings". Although it also implements the family planning policy like China, Hindus believe that having no sons is the greatest misfortune for a family.The family concept of passing on the family line exists in China, and it also exists in India, and it is even more deeply rooted.In the past, in a family in China, if there were only girls and no boys, then under certain conditions, a son-in-law would be recruited "on the door" and the children born would follow the woman's family name.In India, not only the issue of family succession must be considered, but the son also has special religious significance.In Indian religion, cremation must be carried out after death, and the son must hold the fire to burn the body and preside over the funeral.They believe that only in this way can the dead escape from hell and ascend to heaven.Therefore, among these believers, it is a vow not to give up if they do not have a son.In addition to Indian traditional culture affecting the effective implementation of the family planning policy, India's low level of reproductive health care is also one of the reasons.Like China, India is still a poor country on the whole. Among the rural population, 74% live in places with inconvenient transportation, and the level of reproductive health care is very low, which has almost become a blank area of ​​the family planning policy.In addition, India's population policy is based on voluntary and voluntary basis, unlike China's legalized family planning policy, so there is no restriction on anyone. The existence of this situation is tantamount to ruining the family planning policy.

(End of this chapter)