The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide.

Chapter 325 Seriously Underestimated!

Shan Junbao fell into deep thought for a while, because Xinxin's photolithography machine was launched and no specific news was released to the outside world.

Valuation, the amount to be raised, the use of raised funds, the ratio of tradable shares to non-tradable shares, etc., are all black box conditions.

Because CICC is well-informed and well-connected, it can find the right person to communicate with immediately.

Relationships are one thing, but finding the right person is another. Everyone in the financial circle knows that Xinxin’s lithography machine business is going to be listed, but there are no more than five people who can accurately know that the person responsible for the listing of the lithography machine business is Guan Jianying. indivual.

CICC's sources are more accurate than those of its peers.

Sometimes when doing things, the higher the rank, the better. The bigger the position, the better. It is more effective to find the corresponding section chief than to find the deputy mayor who is not in charge of this business.

Shan Junbao knows Xinxin's business, and CICC's relationship can only help them to this point. Xinxin does not need to buy CICC's face at all, and CICC's investment banking department has no more relationship with Xinxin.

For example, have they investigated whether the children of Xinxin executives work in the investment banking department of CICC?

However, they also knew that other colleagues did not have similar relationships, so Shan Junbao knew that his answer was crucial.

This test is how well CICC is doing its internal work.

Guan Jianying didn't press. He was curious about the young man's answer. He had heard of CICC, and he had also heard of the famous cases mentioned by the other party.

As a 20-year veteran of Silicon Valley who has worked in large companies and started his own business, Guan Jianying knows that there will be no fundamental difference in which brokerage firm to choose, and the final results will be very similar.

When high-quality assets like Xinxin lithography machines are listed on the market, there is no shortage of investors to pay for them. Just for the Newman concept, there is no shortage of investors.

Therefore, Xinxin does not need powerful brokers to serve as sponsors. They need them to underpin the stock price trend of Xinxin after its listing.

Therefore, Guan Jianying only wants to choose an institution that knows something about the semiconductor business and can give an accurate valuation.

He believes that since the lithography machine business will be listed, more businesses of Xinxin will be launched into the capital market in the future, so they are looking for long-term partners. At this time, understanding the semiconductor business is very important.

“According to the announcement on Xinxin’s official website last year, Xinxin only had one product last year and sold a total of 54 units. The price of Xinxin’s lithography machine was around 4000 million yuan.

According to Nikon's full-year financial report last year, they sold a total of more than 100 photolithography machines, with a profit of about US$1 million.

Considering that the number of Xinxin lithography machines is one-third that of Nikon, to expand the market, the profit will be even lower than one-third that of Nikon, which is about US$3000 million.

Considering that Xinxin's lithography machine has achieved a historic breakthrough this year, it is expected that profits will grow explosively starting next year. A price-to-earnings ratio of 100 times is not excessive, which means a valuation of US$30 billion.

If 30.00% of the funds are raised, it will be 9 million US dollars and 80 billion RMB. It can also be regarded as a rare large-scale IPO project for A-shares. "Shan Junbao was thinking in his mind.

He must have done his homework before coming here and checked the information of various competitors.

Take Nikon as an example. Nikon's 2006 financial report shows that their main sources of profit are the Imaging Division and Precision Instrument Division.

Among them, the Imaging Division sells cameras, and the Precision Instrument Division sells photolithography machines. The annual profit was 133 billion yen, and the exchange rate between the yen and the U.S. dollar in 2006 was 116.

After Shan Junbao told him his answer, Guan Jianying asked him how he calculated it.

Shan Junbao spoke briefly, and then Guan Jianying asked: "Did you know that Intel's chairman Barrett came to Shenhai not long ago to talk to Newman about Intel's acquisition of Xinxin lithography machines.

What's the price they quoted? "Shan Junbao knew that Barrett had come to Zhangjiang, and Barrett and Zhou Xin each signed a strategic cooperation agreement on behalf of their own companies.

But he really didn't know that Intel wanted to acquire Xinxin's lithography machine business. His heart skipped a beat. The other party asked back, obviously not satisfied with his offer.

"I don't know, Mr. Guan, just tell me." Shan Junbao was a little shy.

Guan Jianying said: "200 billion US dollars, half of which is cash and half of Intel's shares."

Shan Junbao thought to himself, it’s screwed, I’ve offended someone, and the price he gave me was more than twice as low as Intel’s.

He immediately lowered his stance: "Mr. Guan, please give me some pointers as to where there are problems with my algorithm and where I didn't take into account."

Guan Jianying said: "If you give a PE of 100 times for Xinxin's technological breakthrough, it is still underestimated.

In the past, Xinxin's lithography machine could only sell for 4000 million RMB per unit. Our latest immersion lithography machine can sell for 4 million RMB per unit.

Moreover, there is a price but no market. If you want to buy it, you have to look at the relationship with Xinxin. "

The price of the immersion lithography machine here is based on the original time when SMIC imported the immersion lithography machine with the 45nm process from ASML. The price of a single lithography machine was about 5 million RMB.

At that time, 45nm had been launched for some time, and both Nikon and Canon had launched their own 45nm dry lithography machines.

Simply because AMSL's immersion lithography machine has better process and higher yield rate, the price is so high.

Now Xinxin monopolizes the 40nm lithography machine market, 4 million yuan is still conservative for Xinxin, because Xinxin is an unknown player in the field of lithography machines.

For Nikon, he dared to offer 10 billion yuan.

Guan Jianying continued: “The first 20 units of Xinxin’s lithography machines were ordered by the company responsible for chip production within Xinxin, and Intel ordered 10 units.

In addition to Samsung, Texas Instruments, and TSMC currently waiting in line at Xinxin's headquarters, Xinxin's lithography machine business will be at full capacity from now to the next two years. "

Shan Junbao secretly took a breath of air. MD knew that technological innovation made money, but he never expected that technological innovation could be so profitable.

"Mr. Guan, I am not very knowledgeable in this field. I did not expect that Xinxin's technological breakthrough in the field of lithography machines can bring such great benefits and influence.

My previous valuation was undervalued, and if this is the case, I think the $200 billion valuation is undervalued.

Because Xinxin has clearly demonstrated its absolute advantage in the field of lithography machines, we should not value Xinxin according to ordinary companies.

We will go back and analyze the new situation carefully, and CICC’s professional team will provide you with the latest valuation.

The investment banking department I am responsible for also has colleagues from New Core, as well as colleagues from other chip companies. When the time comes, we will organize a professional team and combine it with CICC’s project experience to give you the most favorable valuation for New Core. "

After listening to Guan Jianying's analysis, Shan Junbao felt that the IPO was even more attractive.

If it is valued at US$200 billion, 20% of the equity is US$40 billion, RMB 320 billion. This scale is considered the largest IPO project among private enterprises.

　Let’s briefly talk about Crow’s logic. Data Crow will try to find evidence. If there is no basis, Crow will try to find data close to the year to make an estimate.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)