Xinshun 1730

Chapter 1482 Parting Warning ([-])

After coming out of Li Yan's palace, Liu Yu didn't go home directly, but wandered around the capital casually.

It's not because of any nostalgia, or any feelings of turning his hometown into his hometown, but just wanting to see or guess what will happen to Dashun's future.

Now it seems that everything is as usual, and the capital city is still full of traffic and rushing around.

It's just that everything is as usual now, and compared with three or 40 years ago, it is after all different.

The transformation of Dashun is spontaneous and slow, not that drastic.

Not to mention that when I opened my eyes, I found an incomprehensible black-smoky steamboat running on the river outside; iron birds were about to fly in the sky; giant ships in the harbor could sail against the wind...

no.

It was more like that Dashun ate a "sustained-release capsule" containing the future, which was slow-release and not so violent.

Every young person is used to glass, steam, black smoke, wide cotton cloth, sugar from Nanyang, and coal trains in the rumbling West City.

If you are younger, you may feel that it has been like this since birth, so the world should be like this.

Even if it is said that those who have been run over by the wheels of the times during these years of change, they don't have much hatred now.

Or, dead.

And if it is not dead, since it can live up to now, it is obviously a "transformation".

For example, the camel bell that swayed from Xishan to the capital; for example, the Haichai people who sold Nanyuan firewood in Nanyuan.

Either died, or did something else, or "committed a crime" and were exiled to a distant frontier—the reason for the crime was because they wanted to live, and Liu Yu's reform made the things they depended on for survival Professions are wiped out, and they are not compensated, that's all.

In any case, the capital is a consumption-based city at this time, and it is also a city whose main economic core revolves around the needs of bureaucrats, nobles, army, forbidden army, royal family, yamen, etc.

In this kind of consumption-oriented city, in this transformation, for the time being, it has realized that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

Food prices stabilized.

Cotton has dropped in price.

The price of coal has dropped.

The price of iron has dropped.

Sugar has dropped in price.

The price of tea has dropped.

Every year, the taxes collected by the empire from all over the world flow into thousands of households here as military pay, rewards, salaries, annual salaries of nobles, capital profits, etc.

The grain, cloth, sugar, spices, etc. shipped from Tianjin were exchanged for silver here.However, it is impossible for these grains and cloth to fly to thousands of households by themselves, so many people are engaged in similar jobs.

In recent years, Dashun's reforms must be viewed separately.

For the past, the old production system, the old transportation system, they are victims of reform.

And for those consumers, they are actually the beneficiaries of the reform.

It should be said that from this point of view, it is impossible for the capital to resemble Paris in the French revolution.

Because the capital is not the core production area of ​​Dashun.

But it's also the same, which also means that if something happens in the future, the capital is likely to survive in a peaceful and bloodless way.

To some extent, because of the characteristics of the "consumer city" in the capital, Liu Yu's reforms in recent years have not encountered huge resistance.

Bureaucrats, aristocrats, royal families, and soldiers living in consumer cities look at problems from a consumer perspective.

Because coal is expensive, there is a railway in Xishan.

Because grain is expensive, there is abandoned water transportation.

Because cloth is expensive, they support the innovation of new technologies.

Overseas silver has increased the salaries of officials and the salaries of soldiers.

Changes in the mode of production have lowered the basic price of living. At least for the "natives" in the capital, they don't need to worry about housing prices caused by these changes over the years.

Undoubtedly, this has reduced the resistance of Dashun to change over the years.

Perhaps many civil servants were promoted from the local area and had local experience.But Yu Dashun's other force, the military aristocrats...

They themselves are the group of people to be maintained in Malthusian economics, that is, the "effective demand" people who "only consume, not produce".

Adam Smith said that England pursued a philosophy of production, not consumption.For consumers, there is no doubt that a more complete domestic unified market, better logistics, cancellation of tariffs and customs between various regions, and the exchange of goods in various regions according to their absolute advantages and relative advantages are undoubtedly good things.

Dashun is too big.

Therefore, in these years of changes, some people have suffered, some have benefited, some have rebelled, and some have made a fortune.

Even if it is said that inside the capital, there are benefits and losses.

But as far as the capital is concerned, after all, the benefits are more and the losses are less.

As for who is damaged.

In history, the year when the Boxer Rebellion broke out, and the elderly in Northwest Shandong later recalled that year in this way:

Drought, food prices soared.

After the Yellow River burst, the canals were silted up, and grain could not be transported in.

The rise of shipping and unemployment along the river.

The capital ran away, and the capital of Shanxi and Shanxi in the canal era all withdrew their capital.

The foreign cloth is squeezed, and the native cloth of Luxi is a living, and there is no way to maintain it.

The industry is depressed, the transportation industry is depressed, and a large number of people can't make a living at all.Skilled workers like masons can only exchange 3 catties of sorghum rice a day-masons, in the old society, were standard skilled workers, not labor workers.

And this place is Linqing, known as [the largest textile trading center in the north, the grain distribution center, and Yangzhou north of the Huaihe River] since the construction of the Grand Canal.

That is to say, the area where the Boxer Rebellion broke out first, and Linqing, which is still a state-level poverty-stricken county a hundred years later.

To some extent, Liu Yu brought this matter ahead of schedule.And instead of continuing to accumulate conflicts, they chose to detonate conflicts in batches and suppress them in batches, suppressing the resistance movement here in advance.

Even so, he still used coercive administrative means to divide the share of Indian cotton cloth through external expansion, and forcibly distributed it here to ease the contradiction.

People in the capital, especially "consumers" in the sense of Malthusian economics, including bureaucrats, nobles, and the army, really can't understand the meaning of change for the "destruction" of the old era.

The Enlightenment Movement can solve the problem of anti-feudal "social consciousness".

So, can the Enlightenment solve the problem of industry’s impact on the small peasant economy and traditional cottage industries?

Enlightenment, can small farmers and handicraftsmen be enlightened to the point that they feel that "they have hindered the turning of the wheel of history", so they are happy to close their eyes and wait for death?
The world is physical.

And the consciousness of private ownership, because of factors such as the iron ridge of the blast furnace, the Dharma wheel, and the curved shaft plow, was shaped very early on this land.

What Dashun needs now is a reform of "substance outweighing rhetoric".

And this change, in fact, has not really appeared in Dashun so far.

Liu Yu was already old, and he knew that it was impossible for him to do anything anymore.

The foundation has been laid, the important thing is, how can we suppress the severe pain in the real change and complete the change and transformation?
His ideas for the future are based on billions of acres of overseas and frontier land, and he hopes to use these lands to ease the pain of transformation.

And this requires great skill.

Very high skill.

Very tall wrists.

It is more necessary to understand the pros and cons of things.

Like steamships.

This is the key to Fusang immigration, land reclamation, and pain relief.

Similarly, this is also the key to the collapse of the handicraft industry along the Yangtze River, the collapse of the small peasant economy, and the unsustainable uprising of traditional handicraft industries.

same.

railway.

It is to solve the internal transportation cost and migration cost of Dashun, and to make the frontier land have the conditions to integrate into the capitalist market.

But at the same time, this also means that capital and industrial products will pour into the inland from the first-developed areas at a speed of a hundred times or a thousand times, destroying everything old.

This is not a simple question of "progress".

This involves a problem that many economists have overlooked-in fact, people will resist if they cannot survive.

Struggle, struggle, win and lose, life and death.Small farmers and handicraftsmen would rather follow the emperor, or even Hong Xiuquan, a foreign religious person, than the bourgeoisie.

Who is dead and who is alive is really uncertain.

In Dashun, if you don’t understand what is a small farmer and what is a developed handicraft industry, you simply don’t have the ability to achieve great things in this era.

Liu Yu gambled his real future on the European revolution and the awakening of India, which led to the crisis in Dashun.In order for this crisis to truly create opportunities for the future, the premise must be that Dashun's economic activities around world trade and capitalism have reached a level where once they become turbulent, they will shake the entire empire.

Right now, it's not enough.

Li Yan is actually not the best candidate Liu Yu recognizes.In essence, Liu Yu has someone he really approves of in the real school.

It's just that, in the current situation, among the many princes, there is only one person who can grasp a little bit of capitalist thinking to solve the contradiction between man and earth.

However, his knowledge of reversing old horses is still a bit weak. He still cannot understand the means of primitive accumulation, and he still lacks the understanding that capital is a social relationship.

It should be said that this is the biggest problem of blood inheritance.

Among the crowd of the Yunyunshi School, Li Yan is just like a man, and his understanding of many things is quite different.

But among the few people who are likely to engage in coups and mutinies, this is the highest level among those few goods.

In the past, Liu Yu could rely on the imperial power to carry out reforms under the guise of safeguarding the imperial power and wearing a feudal cloak for the interests of the nobility and the royal family.

But now, at this point, the bourgeoisie must step onto the political stage.

In other words, the bourgeoisie is going to play the leading role in this future transformation of relocation and resolving internal conflicts.

Liu Yu determined that it is impossible to rely on the spontaneous migration of small farmers, or the way of bankrupt farmers to go east and west.

Of course, Liu Yu is also very clear that if Li Yan really succeeds at this point.The binding and marriage of the military nobles and the bourgeoisie is inevitable.

In fact, this is a very simple thought experiment.

What is the purpose of the imperialists using strong boats and guns to pry open the door of China, control tariffs, and cancel import taxes?
It is to open up the market and dump goods.

Then.

If the bourgeoisie in the pioneering areas, Dashun's own industrial capital and financial capital, take power.The law is the ruling tool of the ruling class. If they become the ruling class, what kind of attitude will they have towards the inland market?
Can it be considered that they have saved a series of steps such as controlling the customs, forcibly canceling the sub-export tax, the right of inland waterway, etc.?
Is it possible to think that the use of Indian cotton yarn, Javan indigo, cheap labor force in Sulu, and cotton cloth produced in Songsu large-scale steam textile factory are more likely to kill the small peasant economy than the cotton cloth produced in Manchester and shipped here in history?
In the face of a huge domestic market, European imperialist capitals can travel thousands of miles to switch gunboats.

So, is Dashun's local capital made of any special material?Will they not be envious of this big market with one-third of the world's population?

It is one thing for national capital to be suppressed, suppressed, and destroyed by imperialism.

The disintegration of the small peasant economy, the total collapse of the old economic order, and thus the complete disintegration of the old superstructure are another matter.

The complete disintegration of the old superstructure does not mean that the sun will change immediately, but it is more likely to lead to the overall gentrification of the countryside and the complete collapse of the grassroots.

Historically, the Manchu Qing made a vain preparatory constitution, but this vain thing immediately led to "an unprecedented expansion of the power of the gentry"; "the so-called local autonomy is nothing but the rule of the gentry." ; "The power of the gentry is too heavy, and officials have been placed under the gentry for a long time"...

Many people think that "gentry power", "gentlemen", and "gentry power to suppress officials" are outstanding local figures who stand up and lead everyone to a better future.

But in reality, it is often a group of Huang masters.

Fortunately, now Dashun does have vast land and billions of acres of arable wasteland in the frontiers and overseas.

So, who can artificially promote migration, emigration, and reclamation during this shocking process?
And how to ensure that there will be no intense self-reliance until the completion of "equal field" in the sense of the earth's scale to relieve stress?

such as Australia and North America.There are mines and lots of land. If the local tycoons grow up, will the first and second generation immigrants feel that such a good place should be theirs, so why should they sell it to later generations in the form of state-owned land? immigrants?

And those minerals, if there are only 800 million people, sitting on such a large mine, isn't it popular and spicy?Why should the benefits of these minerals be distributed to the more than one-third of the world's population, so that everyone can become rich together?
Therefore, it is inevitable to draw a strange conclusion:

If Dashun wants to move forward, the bourgeoisie has to be on the stage of history, and they may be needed to play the leading role in the economic force of this great migration.

However, Dashun must not allow the bourgeoisie to truly take power, or to truly become the purest profit-seeking rulers, a force is needed to suppress them.And this principle is often referred to as "emphasizing agriculture and suppressing business".

At the same time, a powerful state machine is needed to ensure the final completion of immigration, instead of the immigrant stories of the second generation of Spain, the second generation of Britain, and the second generation of France in those immigration areas before it is completed.

The real core of this force is the fierce resistance in the process of disintegrating the small peasant economy.

This fierce resistance forced the ruling class to choose a slightly more relaxed approach.

Of course, it doesn't have to be too fierce resistance to understand.

Because, the predecessors have done it, and taking history as a mirror, if you have a clear head, you should know how to make restrictions-Newton discovered gravity, but it doesn't mean that everyone needs to "discover" it again after accepting it all.

This is the advantage of a long history, there are enough stories that can "learn from history", as long as you don't ask for swords.

The disintegration of the small-scale peasant economy can basically be seen as the disintegration of the "men farming and women weaving" model.

In the future, the focus of disintegration will be on "women weaving".

But before, it is not that the disintegration of "Nan Geng" has happened. There is a word called merger.

Therefore, it can be regarded as that similar things have happened before.History can be used as a mirror. If one really knows how to use history as a mirror instead of becoming a ruler who is eager for swords, he should understand that the key point is to control all these processes and make them basically controllable.

Therefore, it can be deduced again: Dashun will continue to move forward, and most likely there will be someone under the guise of "the emperor of the small farmers" to propose some solutions to the plight of the small farmers, but in fact the real source of strength and dominance is the army and financial capital. , the people of industrial capital.

The subject here is Dashun.

If Dashun continues to move forward, it will roughly be like this.

Instead of China continuing to move forward, roughly so.

If Dashun can continue to move forward, the biggest prerequisite is the existence of Dashun, otherwise it would be impossible for Dashun to move forward.Because Dashun is gone, how can Dashun move forward?China going forward, is it about the Dashun Dynasty?

And the other way around.

If the emperor did not rely on financial capital and industrial capital, then Dashun would not be able to move forward, at least on the issues of road construction and relocation.

If the emperor cannot play the guise of "emperor of small farmers", propose some solutions to the plight of small farmers, and impose appropriate restrictions on capital.Then, there is basically no Dashun.

Such is the case.

Therefore, at this time, if you want to continue to rehearse, then the three rehearsal articles, the first two are "The Eighteenth Brumaire" and "French Real Estate Mortgage Bank", and the other one should be "The Revolution and Rebellion in Germany". leather".

In the first two articles, retraining is to learn how to summon heroic spirits, how to summon them, the problem of small peasants, and peasants in small peasant countries would rather believe in the emperor than follow the bourgeoisie to bring about another legal revolution.And how to use Saint-Simonism's industrial thought and the idea of ​​a bank as a baton to fix hot money for industrial development and rapid industrial development.

And the next one.

Engels said:

[...to study the reasons why this revolution is bound to break out and inevitably fail]

[These causes should not be sought in the accidental motives, merits, defects, errors or apostasies of a few leaders, but in the general social and living conditions of each country which has undergone shocks]

[...But when you ask the reason for the success of the counter-revolution, you hear a ready-made answer everywhere: because someone A or B "betrayed" the people]

[From the specific situation, this answer may be correct or wrong, but in any case, it cannot explain anything...], in short, this is correct nonsense, useless nonsense.

[I can't even explain how the "people" let others betray themselves. 】

And Lao Ma said in another article:
[The bourgeoisie is now blatantly calling out that the masses are stupid, saying that these vile multitudes (despicable mobs), as if these masses, mobs, and stupid small peasants, betrayed it to the emperor]

[However, it was they themselves who strengthened the trust of the peasantry in the Empire...]

In short, there is no difference between reverse training or regular training, when [discovering problems] and [analyzing problems].

It is necessary to discover and analyze problems from the perspective of class and the general social situation and living conditions of the country as Engels said.

It is nothing more than that the difference between regular training and back training lies in the final [problem solving].

For example, boil water.

After analyzing the problem, you come to a conclusion that if you want to boil the water, you have to add fire.

Therefore, to solve the problem, the difference between regular practice and reverse practice lies in "do you want to boil the water" or "do you not want to boil the water"?

You don't want to boil the water. After analyzing the problem before, you choose to remove the firewood.

You want to boil the water, and after analyzing the problem before, you choose to continue adding firewood.

Therefore, in Liu Yu's view, what Li Yan really needs now is a small volume based on the current reality, the situation in Dashun at this time, the background of Dashun's victory in World War I, and the first industrial revolution. "Analysis of the Social Strategies of Dashun" under the realistic background that Dashun is about to grow explosively and Dashun is a first-mover country and there is no imperialist invasion of Dashun.

Who is "our" enemy and who is "our" friend, this is the first question.

The key is, who is "we".

To write to Li Yan, of course it is counter-practice.

It is necessary to analyze the mentality of small farmers and what causes their plight.

It is necessary to analyze the demands of the bourgeoisie in the advanced areas and their attitude towards private ownership and private ownership of small estates.

It is necessary to analyze the mentality of the military nobles and their interests.

It is necessary to analyze the different attitudes of consumer cities like Beijing, production and export trade cities like pioneering areas, and old producer handicraft areas in inland areas where the small-scale peasant economy may be impacted in the face of technological progress, change, and development.

Therefore, according to different purposes, we can distinguish who is "our" enemy, who is "our" friend, who is "us" must appease, and who is "us" must suppress...

In the end, from the perspective of your class, through rehearsal, let Li Yan do the task that Liu Yu "arranged" for him: the dual mission.

Complete the rapid development of the industry and alleviate the pain of transformation.

To break the people's superstition about all the old things of the past—Of course there are two ways to break this superstition about all the old things of the past.

One is spontaneous, active, and guided, a breaking of old things.

The second type is similar to Nasan, who completely destroyed the illusions of French peasants about Napoleon; the imperial cabinet of the Qing dynasty broke the last illusion of imperial reform; The illusion that the ruler should pay taxes and pay taxes.

Obviously, Li Yan is the second type.

The premise of reverse practice is to know the methodology, and then discover and analyze problems, and Li Yan obviously does not have this ability.

Before leaving, Liu Yu also needs to give Li Yan a copy of "Analysis of Various Classes at the Present Stage of the Dynasty".

Of course, this pamphlet needs to be written after Liu Yu left the Dashun court and "traveled from Chisongzi", and it was confirmed that Li Yan would send him some "about the future, industry and commerce, and solving human and land issues, Small Peasant Poverty" pamphlets will not be sent over until they sign their names.

So, later, many incredible stories happened in Dashun.

(End of this chapter)