Xinshun 1730

Chapter 1463 The Last Farce ([-])

Liu Yu was basically satisfied with Li Yan's answer.

Li Yan felt that Liu Yu was trying to teach him.

In fact, it is really trying to teach him.

On the whole, Liu Yu is not very optimistic about the prince who caused the rice ban in Hubei.

In this era of change, Dashun needs someone who "understands that the difference between Dong Shi and Xi Shi is not to frown, but to look different; Dong Shi can easily learn Xi Shi's movements, but it is impossible to learn Xi Shi's appearance." shifting" people.

This truth seems to be the same as what a fool should know.

However, in reality, there are not many people in Dashun who can really understand this truth.

At the very least, the crown prince didn't know that Liu Yu's many radical policies in Songsu were based on shipping and Nanyang rice, northeast sorghum, and Yezo wheat.

Know its beauty, know why it is beautiful.

Know it, know why.

Food is actually quite amazing.

If we talk about the concept of "per capita"—for Dashun as a whole, the concept of "per capita" is actually a bullshit concept. Per capita per capita, when the logistics, infrastructure, transportation and other capabilities are not up to standard, Nanyang's rice , and the concept of per capita cannot be compared with Henan's wheat.

But if we talk about it in terms of a province, the concept of per capita is very important and very meaningful.

The prince carried out radical reforms in Hubei, although, perhaps from the perspective of later generations, they were not very radical.It is nothing more than allowing or encouraging farmers to grow cotton and sesame.But in fact, in this day and age, allowing farmers to change rice into mulberry, wheat into cotton, and bean into sesame is a very radical reform.

In short, the crown prince's reforms in Hubei touched the bottom line of Hubei's "per capita grain possession".As a result, the grain output in Hubei is completely unable to reach the red line of 450 catties per person per year.

Food is too amazing.

For other things, it may be said that if it is missing today, then I don’t use it today, and I will use it when the goods arrive.

As for food, it cannot be said that it is scarce or expensive today, so if I don’t eat it today, can I get it?
Using Malthusian economics to explain, that is, a 10% shortage of food does not mean that food prices will increase by 12%, so as to achieve the same sales as before; rise.

Malthus said, if you use the set of "orthodox economics" to explain food, you will definitely cry.A 10% shortage of food is definitely not a 12% increase in food prices, but definitely a 10% increase in food prices to starve to death.

This is one of the most basic "economics" things.Obviously, the prince did not have the most basic common sense of "economics" in carrying out reforms.

According to what the prince thinks, farmers who plant cotton and sesame seeds in exchange for money, counting it as "money", are definitely more cost-effective than growing grain, and then using money to buy grain, wouldn't it be beautiful?
The reality is that growing cotton and sesame in Hubei directly led to a food shortage in Hubei, forcing the prince to issue a "rice ban" policy, prohibiting the export of Hunan and Sichuan rice passing through the Yangtze River, and all of them were detained in Hubei.

For Dashun.

The real logic of the traditional "emphasis on agriculture over business" does not lie in "finding ways to make farmers change rice to mulberry".

In fact, the real problem faced by the traditional logic of "emphasizing agriculture over business" is always: farmers want to, and want very much, and actively want to change rice into mulberry, but the imperial court must first find a way to force farmers not to change rice into mulberry , Tobacco is not allowed, and even poppies are not allowed.

Farmers are not fools, they need the court to tell them, is it actually more profitable to grow cash crops?
On the contrary, many people regard farmers as fools, so they have the illusion that farmers are fools, so they don’t know how to grow cash crops—on the contrary, the reality is that farmers are not fools, and they don’t need to be “guided” by superiors. Farmers will spontaneously Choose to grow cash crops.On the contrary, the government has always had to find a way to let farmers not grow cash crops, but to grow food in this era when "the world's yield of 150 catties per mu is considered high yield".

Apparently, the crown prince didn't even understand the most basic logical core of "emphasizing agriculture over commerce".It is completely useless to count on him to carry out reforms.

As Li Yan and Liu Yu said, people come later, things come later.

In this era of change, everything is changing.Only later people can use the basic, even possibly crooked, and wrong methodology based on the reality of the economic foundation of the later society to come up with a method that conforms to the "Tao" instead of copying the "art".

The story that Liu Yu told Li Yan was a metaphor of taking three.

Compare transpiration to a tax.

The state power must act as the rain on behalf of the sky.

Let the rain fall where it is needed, instead of dying from drought or flooding, and eventually the cycle of transpiration and rainfall collapses.

This point, Li Yan is recognized.

And the next one, the idea of ​​relying on investment immigration, and then collecting taxes from cultivation to feed back the migration of immigrants, this is another issue of "seeking a sword in a boat" and "imitating a mere trick".

Apparently, Li Yan sensed something was wrong when he heard it, and pointed out sharply that this set can only be justified under the premise that there are still billions of acres of uncultivated land in Jianghan, Henan, and other places in the Central Plains. .

The actual situation in Dashun is that there are billions of acres of land that can be cultivated, in Fusang and the Southern Ocean.

Therefore, this set of ideas of increasing value through cultivation does not apply to Dashun.

But only in reverse.

Reclamation is not regarded as a method that can increase value by itself, but as a kind of "leftover material" of industry and commerce.

Many theories should be combined with reality, specific situations, and specific analysis. Don't use "Tao" as a cost-based copying of "skills".

Even if we say that Saint-Simonism and Bonapartism are themselves problematic.But even these problematic things don't need to be combined with reality and localized.

Take its core, not imitate its skin.

Dashun's most feared problem is to beg for the sword and imitate others.

For example, the enclosure movement in the UK must understand the three major benefits and the three small advantages of the enclosure movement:

Three benefits: the determination of exclusive land ownership, the population stripped of the means of production required for industrial and commercial development, and the increase in grain production of the agricultural revolution are the basis for industrial and commercial development.

Three small benefits: convenient taxation, sufficient raw materials during the woolen war, and capital accumulation in the country gentry, which facilitated investment in national debt and industry and commerce.

For Dashun at this time, these three major benefits and three small benefits are all useless.

Exclusive ownership had been established as early as the end of the Tang Dynasty, and the population needed for industrial and commercial development was not lacking at all, to the extent that day laborers needed a few catties of stick noodles a day. At this time the crown of the world.Not to mention the remaining three small profits.

Unless it arrives, the development of Dashun has reached the next round of industrial revolution, the yield per mu has been greatly improved, and the level of mechanization is in place. The key is that without an industrial population of [-] billion to [-] billion, it is impossible to complete further development. This set of things can only be considered at the level of development.

Another example is the collapse of the French East India Company.

It must also be clear that the reason why the French East India Company has been half-dead is because of the local industrial substitution policy left by Colbert, which made the French East India Company "on the road of comprador, being constrained by the local everywhere."

Importing a few extra pieces of lacquerware would affect the country's joiners, so the Minister of Exchequer would talk to him; if he imported three extra pieces of cotton cloth, the Minister of State would impose a policy on fines for wearing cotton cloth.If this is not half dead, it is really unreasonable.

And because of this, Duplex thought of a way to collect land tax in India to increase the company's profits.

To collect land tax, you have to raise soldiers.

India is too far away from France to raise a French army, so Duplex wants to engage Indian soldiers.

As for Dashun, due to various reasons, "wanted to be a comprador but could not".At the same time, Dashun has no shortage of people, and it is not as far away from India as France. It even relied on the previous Trojan horse scheme to immigrate more than [-] people in Ceylon. Shun the loyal Guiyi army.

So, is Dashun going to fully inherit Duplex’s thinking in India, relying entirely on collecting land taxes and raising Indian soldiers to supplement soldiers?
These are all problems that, if you are not careful, you will be asked for a sword and imitated.

Now Liu Yu took the practical assumptions of Nasan's utopian theory and asked Li Yan if he thought it would work.The purpose is to see if Li Yan can understand that the utopian methodology is acceptable, but the practical assumptions must be combined with the actual situation of Dashun.

The so-called method of taking three sets, or the general idea of ​​making XX great again, Lao Ma made it very clear: use the youth version of the idea to solve the real problems of the aging version.Use the methods of the past to solve the problems of the present.

This is the methodology.

And in the big cakes painted, at least the interests of small farmers, workers, labor-management relations, and the solution to widespread poverty are the goals.

Never mind, did Nasan slap himself in the face in the end? It is said that increasing the wealth of the country is the only way to solve the problem. After taking office, it fought Crimea and the second Opium War; it is said here To solve the problem of widespread poverty and to develop industry, industry and agriculture is the foundation of the country. Over there, there was a carnival of French speculative capital for 20 years, and finally it became usury capitalism.

The key point is that using this methodology of "solving new problems with old ideas" has led to a set of practical solutions that at least sound plausible for "for the well-being of the whole people".

This, which is what Liu Yu said, is quite an enhanced version of Nasan. If you want to take on this historically unconscious tool that breaks all superstitions of old things, you must at least have a certain ability.

Have the ability to "discover problems".

There must be a crooked methodology of "analyzing problems". Although it is crooked, it at least recognizes the material world.

And to come up with a "problem solving" idea that is actually bullshit, but sounds acceptable to everyone and seems to be achievable in the future.

Of course, it seems that this type of person can only have one-third of the three things of discovering problems, analyzing problems, and solving problems.

But, this has been quite difficult.

Among the people in the Dashun court, those who can "discover problems" are rare.

As for those who claim to have crooked methodology of "analyzing problems" instead of just talking about it at the step of "analyzing problems", there are even fewer people among the already rare ones.

Li Yan can understand the story of "Dongshi imitates the frown" that Zhuangzi said back then, and can understand that "you can shift your eyebrows and hold your heart, but you can't shift your appearance."

At least, compared with the mainstream disputes before Dashun, that is, the "orthodoxy" dispute of "from the inside to the outside" or "from the outside to the inside", I don't know how high it is.

And since it's Dashun's business.

Then, it is impossible not to take the world as the perspective, not to take the huge unified country as the perspective, and it is even more impossible to ignore the existence of [-] million small farmers.

Regardless of these three points, in Dashun, any plan to move forward can be directly regarded as bullshit.

But now, since Liu Yu and Li Yan talked about a "distinguished learning" today.

In fact, that is to say, when the era has come to this point, when Dashun has come to this step, how to continue to move forward, or where the future is in terms of "construction of the future", this "excellent learning", at least It can be regarded as a "theoretically plausible" solution.

Regardless of whether it is realistic or not in practice.

Just to say, if it is impossible to do something in theory, it is even more impossible in practice.

And Liu Yu, under the subtle influence of these years, put forward a vision for the future.

This vision of the future is based on the concrete goal of "developing industry and commerce, accommodating a large population, and finally getting rid of absolute poverty for small farmers".

However, the goal is there, the destination is there, it is certain.

Road, how to go?
This "explicit learning" can be regarded as a road that "seems to be able to reach that goal theoretically" considering the world, the great unification, and the [-] million small farmers.

But, obviously, this path may work.But relying on improvement and reform will definitely not work.

To some extent, a coup d'état can be regarded as a special kind of "improvement" or "reform", and it cannot be an earth-shaking revolution.

Li Yan's conditions may be able to calm the difficulties and clear the emperor's side.But if you want to ask Li Yan to issue a call to action, rebel soldiers, eighteen cavalry dormant in Shangluo, Juntian, Yongdian, etc., then he certainly does not have the conditions and ability.

He saw the unreliability of the reclamation and self-circulation plan, and he also understood whether Liu Yu's migration to Fusang depended on reclamation or industrial and commercial mines. So in this regard, Liu Yu felt that Li Yan had some skills.

Before Liu Yu could continue to ask, Li Yan took the initiative to say: "Actually, the policy of the Duke of Fusang to immigrate to Fusang is essentially to recognize the invisible hand. Taishi Gong said: The prosperity of the world is for profit, and the world's hustle and bustle is for profit. .”

"The Duke of the state uses the benefits of the Fusang gold and silver mines to let this invisible hand control the capital and flow it to shipbuilding, immigration, and migration. This is the way."

"And mergers, land purchases, rent collection, and loan lending are actually controlled by invisible hands."

"If this is the case, if you want capital to flow to industry and commerce... can you restore the king's land law, where the tiller gets the land and cannot be bought or sold?"

"In addition, Yan Xizhai's '30-year redemption and purchase' method made money in the hands of the gentry and landlord. But first, he could not buy land and merge it with rent collection, and second, the origin of lending was mostly from renting. In this way, the money in his hand Silver grain and rice, if not invested in industry and commerce, where should they be invested?"

"The bustle and bustle of the world is all for profit, and the hustle and bustle of the world is for profit. This is the so-called invisible hand. It is nature. Since this way is natural, why not use means to prevent land from being bought and sold?"

"And force capital to flow to industry and commerce. And strictly control it, so that capital cannot flow back from industry and commerce back to agriculture for at least 30 to [-] years?"

"I think so. Small farmers cultivate, and the yield per mu is not too low. If industrial and commercial capital flows back to agriculture, it will not increase the yield per mu. That is to say, the total national wealth will not increase as the Duke said."

"On the contrary, if the industrial and commercial capital flows back to the farmland, it is more like...this farmland is more like the financial industry in Amsterdam? Nowadays, people who buy land, store land, and collect rent rarely improve the land, but use the land to earn interest .”

"Because of the high interest rate, if you rent 4 taels of silver per mu of land and rent 15 taels, and the yield per mu is one stone, the annual rate of return will be at least [-]%."

"And the land will always be there, and it won't be wiped out like industrial and commercial bankruptcy, so the principal will never change."

"In addition, in the past few years, the inflow of silver, the reduction of taxes by the imperial court, and the reduction of local labor due to the reform of water transport have caused land prices to rise and grain prices to rise. In this way, not only the interest is generated, but the principal is actually also increasing. .”

"Such a high rate of return is really appalling. The most profitable business for the British is to do plantations, and the annual rate of return is only 10% at best. And this dynasty's debt in Amsterdam can even be borrowed at 3%. Therefore, it would be strange if this capital did not flow to the cultivated land."

"The Duke of the State said that the total national wealth is not gold and silver, but grain, rice, iron, etc. So, now that capital uses cultivated land for financial speculation and interest generation, it is not an increase in the total national wealth."

"Based on the theory of "The Wealth of Nations", I think that banning land transactions may be a solution."

"Of course, this also hinders the flow of capital to the land, and hinders those who really want to improve the land and build water conservancy."

"However, let me tell you that in North China, there are three crops in two years. If there is no catastrophe, the yield per mu is more than [-] to [-] catties. Even if the capital is not purely for speculation, but for the development of land production, then I think the yield per mu is not purely for speculation. Production may not increase much."

"On the contrary, a few people improve the land, while the majority speculates on the land."

"This kind of thing is difficult to manage, and it is impossible to distinguish."

"No, one size fits all!"

"Such a cut, of course, there may be no possibility for large capital to improve the land. But more, capital cannot speculate on land, and has to invest in factories, mining, iron smelting, infrastructure, canals, roads, shipping, shipbuilding , glass, cement, textile and other industries."

"That is to say, the profit of agriculture is reduced by three points, but the profit of industry is very high. At the same time, because there is no investment with a return rate of 15% such as buying land and collecting rent, capital has nowhere to go. When the time comes , and its interest rate is falling day by day."

"When the interest rate drops, you can issue a large amount of national debt. It will be much more convenient to build roads, cultivate land, set up large factories, or open large mines."

"Otherwise, the gentry and landlords, with money in their hands, are thinking about lending and annexing. Even if they issue national debts to build roads and only pay 5% interest, they will definitely refuse."

"As for the public opinion in the market, the theory that the taxation of the land equalization leads to immigration and reclamation, if it is moved, it will cause a great disturbance in the world, which may lead to the establishment of a new policy. Second, the gentry will definitely not agree. If the world is moved, the obstruction will be great. Third, if Going ahead in one place, only relying on those agricultural taxes, has no effect; if it is to be effective, the whole world must be moved."

"Therefore, the compromise strategy is not to first develop areas, first to force redemption, and to develop industry and commerce. Hire workers to get money, and then sail across the ocean by themselves."

(End of this chapter)