Xinshun 1730

Chapter 1448 Three Mountains in One

It is impossible for the emperor at this time to think about the edict of abdication.

After all, the current Dashun seems to be in the heyday of burning oil, not to mention the scary-sounding edict of abdication, and even the emperor is still thinking about the 800-year dream of Xingzhou.

As for the idea of ​​continuing the reform and developing industry and commerce.

For the Dashun court, according to the traditional way of thinking, a line was drawn to separate the inside and the outside, with small-scale farming traditions and coastal industry and commerce on the other.

It is nothing more than to keep a clear head and know which one is the basic market and which one is just a financial tool; which one can overturn the boat with skills, and which one may be too big to lose, or even kidnap the court.

As for what is called the basic disk.

It's not that these people are screaming, firmly supporting the Dashun court, and being able to defend Dashun by themselves at the end of the dynasty is called the basic plan.

Rather, taxation, stability, labor, soldiers, and labor, which can contribute to power under the rule, are called the basic disk.

For a few hundred years, as long as the self-cultivating farmers can survive, the imperial court will be prosperous; as long as the self-cultivating farmers cannot survive, the imperial court will be complete. In terms of history, the imperial court knows who is the basic board of the imperial court.

It can be said that regarding the issue of small farmers, what the emperor was worried about and what Liu Yu had were not the same thing in essence.

But in terms of form, the two sides have a certain common language.

At the juncture of currency reform in Dashun, how to prevent the "currency easy-to-get zone" and lead to major events through a unified internal market, unified currency, and free trade of cultivated land, both sides generally agree that for financial control.

Regarding the currency reform and the subsequent banking industrial ideas of Saint-Simonism, it can certainly be interpreted from various angles.

From the perspective of future economics, there is a so-called "impossible triangle of financial policy".

Namely, the free flow of capital, the independence of monetary policy, and the stability of exchange rate.

Among the three, you can only choose two at most, and it is impossible to have all three.

Before Dashun’s currency reform, Dashun actually had only one thing in this impossible triangle, and that was the free flow of capital.

Historically, a group of Shaanxi people who sold salt in Yangzhou could return to Shaanxi with their capital, entered Sichuan, controlled the salt industry in southern Sichuan, and opened a pawn shop in Sichuan to lend usury. north of...

In history, a group of people who earned silver in coastal trade or salt trade returned to their ancestral home and bought land frantically, which can directly increase the local low price by [-] to [-]%...

Historically, a group of people who controlled the right to issue silver notes through foreign trade took the silver and directly manipulated the copper-silver exchange in tea-producing areas, thus obtaining a large amount of tea at a very low silver price...

If you want to say that this is not capital flow, it is definitely wrong.

As for the other two triangles, the independence of monetary policy and exchange rate stability.

It can only be said that for hundreds of years, from the issuance of currency to the recycling of copper coins and melting them into copper and then selling them, there is actually some ability to "issue" currency. In fact, there is no monetary policy at all.

And the exchange rate is stable... It is easy to cause such big fluctuations as "money is expensive and silver is cheap" and "silver is expensive and money is cheap"; wars in Europe and even uprisings in South America can directly affect the status quo of currency exchange in the country. Not to mention the stability of the exchange rate.

From the perspective of the "impossible triangle" of economics in later generations, the currency reform of Dashun, and the subsequent restrictions on inward circulation, household registration and land purchase, and banking policies are actually equivalent to monetary policy. You have to make big moves.

To throw away the original liquidity of capital.

Instead, relying on currency reform, we must get back "exchange rate stability" and "monetary policy independence."

Of course, this is not the first time that the imperial court has tried to touch the "seigniorage" thing in the past few hundred years.

Whether there is seigniorage on copper coins is really hard to say.I have never heard of a seigniorage, and I have never heard of a seigniorage that can be earned by melting copper coins into copper and selling them for money. I have also never heard of a seigniorage that needs to be paid to large merchants to sell copper in Japan in order to stabilize the currency.

Treasure banknotes can probably be counted as seigniorage, but the tax is a bit high, and the tax collapsed.

Therefore, Dashun learned a lesson this time. Before that, Spanish silver dollars had already circulated in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian on a large scale. ——Under the current situation, many people of insight in the court proposed to abolish the two and change the yuan, and suggested minting coins.

But in the end, considering that there were not enough gold and silver plates in his hand, he was afraid that it would not be possible, so he kept pressing down.

Until now, the gold and silver plates are sufficient, and this is considered to be ready for currency reform.

Since it is said that currency reform, from the perspective of future generations of economics, Dashun’s idea is to reconstruct the impossible triangle of financial and monetary policy, throw away the original corner and strengthen the two corners that did not exist.

Then, I have to say that the industrial bank thinking of Saint-Simonism is just very suitable.

Lao Ma commented at the beginning, saying [(The purpose of the chattel bank under the banner of Saint-Simon Industrial Co., Ltd.) is obviously to use a method that is completely opposite to the operation of a commercial bank to affect capital]

[Commercial banks ... make fixed capital temporarily free to employ]

[And (this set of things) actually fixes hot money and restricts the free use of capital]

[For example, normal stocks can circulate very freely, but the capital represented by these stocks, that is, the capital invested in railway construction is fixed... Almost every commercial crisis in modern times is the same as the relationship between hot money and fixed capital. The proper proportional relationship between them is destroyed]

[...but the direct purpose of such an institution is to fix as much domestic loan capital as possible and invest it in railways, canals, mines, docks, ships, ironworks, and other industrial enterprises...]

Of course, when the joint stock system is used in industrial development, on the one hand, it shows the combined production capacity that was unexpected in the past, and makes industrial enterprises have a scale beyond the reach of individual capitalists; on the other hand, it slides into what Fourier called industrial feudalism.

It should be noted that industrial feudalism is a historical process.

This is not something anyone can invent.

And this set of things did not invent industrial feudalism, but cleverly used industrial feudalism as a tool, a tool for "paying tribute" to the real controller.

Whether it is Saint-Simon, Nasan, Brother Biliera, etc., these people who engage in this kind of business have no ability to "invent" industrial feudalism, because this thing is a historical process, just like gravity. of.But they invented a way to use industrial feudalism as their tribute tool.

This is of course very important. It is related to whether the feudal rulers of Dashun can develop basic industrial development under the tradition of feudalism, instead of fearing, fearing or directly destroying this kind of germination.

In addition to this key factor, there is still this set of things [actually fixing hot money and restricting the free use of capital... to invest in railways, canals, mines, docks, ships, ironworks and other industrial enterprises]

For the Dashun court, based on their traditional thinking, what they are afraid of is precisely "massive hot money".

This kind of hot money originated from gold mining in North America and Australia, from Dashun's foreign trade, from Dashun's current sphere of influence and the producers who directly took over the Atlantic Triangle trade.

These hot money, according to the traditional experience... will swish to buy land, hoard land, usury, and pawnshops.

As a traditional dynasty, from the most traditional point of view of "emphasizing agriculture and despising business", it is precisely these massive hot money that are afraid of running to these places.

Therefore, in the end, the set of [actually fixing hot money and restricting the free use of capital...into railways, canals, mines, docks, ships, ironworks and other industrial enterprises] is crucial of.

And this set of things is afraid of two things.

One is "regardless of the country's production capacity", or in other words, how much potential does this kind of high-speed industrial investment and production have, and how long can it last before it collapses?

The other is the financial crisis, and there are problems with currencies and precious metals.Since it is the era of precious metal currency, it is basically caused by the shortage of precious metals.

Dashun is not special.

There is no Dashun exception.

Obviously, since you choose to do this, once you encounter these two problems, you will collapse immediately.

The question is, how long does it take?How long can it last?

After three years, the bubble burst and collapsed, like a John Law story?

Or will it last for ten years, until the Yellow River channel is repaired and the Beijing-Han Railway is connected, and then it collapses?

Or, it can sustain 20 or 30 years of high-speed development, such as the old story in France, where the annual industrial growth rate is over 8%, tens of thousands of kilometers of railways are supported, the amount of coal mining and iron smelting has increased tenfold, and hundreds of large-scale Will the steam engine factory collapse later?
For the Dashun Dynasty, there may be no difference.

Death today, death tomorrow, and death the day after tomorrow are all death, and early death and late death are all death.

But for China, the difference is big.

It collapsed in three years, or the Beijing-Hanzhou Railway along the Yellow River was completed, or it collapsed after the rapid industrial development in the coastal steam era, the difference is as big as heaven and earth.

These two problems that lead to the disintegration of this set of things can definitely be encountered.

The former refers to how long can the period of rapid industrial development last?As long as it lasts long enough, this set of things will not collapse for the time being.Relying on the "return rate", "interest spread", or "profit" and "dividend" of the rapid industrial development, it will not collapse in a while.

The latter refers to this set of things. To play this way in the precious metal era, you have to consider whether your surplus, exports, precious metal stock, and precious metals can keep up with the speed of industrial value-added.

That is to say, if you engage in this set of things, it is essentially the integration of the three mountains of "feudalism", "capitalism" and "emperor".

Then, if Dashun wants to maintain this set of things so that it does not collapse so quickly, or last for a few more years, and leave more industrial heritage, it must rely on the "emperor" of one of the three mountains.

Obviously, the first battle was won—before Dashun officially entered the war, it could only be called the Second Silesian War, the Anglo-French Indian War; and the moment Dashun marched into India from Ceylon and defeated the British colonial army , it can be called the First World War, and it won—the Dashun is fully capable of sustaining it for a few more years.

(End of this chapter)