War Palace and Knee Pillow, Austria’s Destiny

For the sake of the long-term stability of Austria's eastern frontier, Franz deliberately created an east-west division in Bosnia, and he thought that his clever design allowed it to maintain a tripartite internal situation.

Of course, he has never ignored how important the two major Near Eastern powers, Ottoman and Russia, are in maintaining the fragile balance of the Balkan Peninsula. This is why Austria made concessions and compromises to the two countries at the five-nation meeting and in the previous secret talks in Istanbul.

But the direction of history is always so elusive and full of charm. For example, Miloš Obrenovich I, who should have withdrawn from the stage of history, completed the task of punching the Parliament of Seventeen with the help of the British. , kicked off the difficult task of defeating the Russian puppet Vucic, and successfully suppressed the Bosnian uprising supported by the Ottomans, reunifying Serbia.

In fact, it is not difficult to understand after careful analysis. Historically, although the Serbian region continued the excellent matching mechanism of the Balkans, its political situation was relatively stable, and the Seventeen-member Parliament also dealt a thorough blow to the Miloš faction, which caused him to remain until 1859. It was restored only in the year.

But at this time, due to Franz's east-west division policy, the relocation of the Serbian capital from Belgrade to Sarajevo, and the previous battles, the strength and influence of the Seventeen-member Parliament were greatly reduced.

And the new Grand Duke Mikhail they elected to power was Miloš's son, so the former who thought he had the last laugh turned out to be the weakest link.

Vucic, who is supported by the Russians, should have been the biggest winner in this spoils-sharing shuffle. However, in view of the major differences between Britain and Russia on the Strait issue, which has intensified the conflicts between the two countries, coupled with the sharp increase in internal and external pressure on the tsarist government, it is difficult for him to continue. It is difficult to provide effective support.

As for the Bosnians who were supported by the Ottoman Empire, their interests were even less cared about. Although Canning left Istanbul on the front foot, the British later sent a new emperor, Earl Mariel Taylor.

Earl Taylor didn't like his job, let alone the Ottomans. His request was simple, and everything was based on British strategy. Although Sultan Mejid was reluctant and helpless, he could only do it.

The Bosnians also became the biggest losers in this game. They went directly from being a first-class person who oppressed all living beings to becoming a pariah who was trampled on at will. Moreover, how can the grievances accumulated over hundreds of years be settled in just one or two sentences?

Miloš Obrenovi, who refuses to be left alone, seems to be born for troubled times. This chaotic situation full of complicated back-room games made him like a fish in water, and it took only two years to return to his loyal Belgrade, oh disloyal Sarajevo.

Of course, Britain, which has experience in communicating with various ruling classes and leaders around the world, is very clear about Miloš's personal current situation.

His so-called Greater Serbia is completely whimsical, but even with the help of Britain, it is still whimsical. Whether it is Austria, the Ottomans, or Russia, whose mission is to "rescue the Slavic brothers", they cannot accommodate a Balkan power.

But the British experience told them that this big Serbist was a person who could be exploited.

Nowadays, Austria's series of actions in Italy have been considered by the British Prime Minister to have destroyed the so-called "continental balance of power." Like his predecessors, Viscount Melbourne also does not allow any signs of breaking the balance of power on the European continent.

Although the Stitch Monster is still far from powerful enough to shake Europe, its recovering national economy is enough to arouse London's vigilance.

Of course, the politicians in Whitehall do not think that Serbia will be a rival to the Austrian Empire. Moreover, it is not a wise move for Britain to conduct land operations in the Balkans, a quagmire surrounded by powerful neighbors. Its proud Royal Navy is also not wise. It is difficult to play an effective role.

(WhiteHall is a street in London, England. It connects the Houses of Parliament and Downing Street. In and around this street, some British government agencies such as the Ministry of Defence, Foreign Affairs, Home Office, and Admiralty are located here. . Therefore people use Whitehall as a proxy for the British executive branch.)

Unless they choose to make a desperate move and assemble a transport fleet to seize control of the Adriatic Sea with the cooperation of warships with quantitative and qualitative advantages, and launch a beach landing on a weak coast, there may be a slight chance of winning.

But this is totally worth the loss, and British taxpayers will never agree that the government will waste all their money on this meaningless war.

On the contrary, the Austrians' newly expanded overseas colonies were an easier breakthrough point for the British. After all, the other party is not a maritime power at all, and it is also extremely dependent on important overseas strategic materials such as cotton.

As long as occupation can bring benefits and meet the need for war to support war, there will be people who support the war.

But after all, war still pays attention to the so-called rationality. Even before Japan and Prussia started fighting, they had to find a "reasonable" excuse, so a "reasonable" fig leaf was necessary.

The "fig leaf" chosen by Canning this time happened to be the excuse of supporting the Serbian independence movement. But when he put forward this crazy suggestion, as expected, he was immediately unanimously opposed by his cabinet colleagues.

"Idiot! Do you want to give up the entire Balkans to those greedy Russians? Support the independence of the Serbians. Think about it carefully with your head. What an unrealistic fantasy this is.

At that time, the Russians will naturally 'liberate' the entire Balkan Peninsula in the name of God of all Slavs, but you are still the Minister of Foreign Affairs. "

The Marquis of Normandy, the colonial secretary, said angrily. Since Britain has participated in too many wars in the world, not to mention the lengthening of the front line, various urgent letters regarding logistics and personnel consumption are constantly being sent to London. At this time, it is definitely not possible to start a war with Austria, one of the five major powers. Smart move.

Moreover, once a war is declared against the Austrian Empire, which is the leader of the Holy Alliance and chairman of the German Confederation, it is equivalent to going to war with the entire Germany and Russia. Even France is likely to stand against Britain for its own interests.

For the British, this was a war with more losses than gains, and it was also an act that violated the mainland's balance of power policy.

"Marquis, please open your eyes. If you have read the confidential reports sent by our ambassadors in Vienna and the German region, you should have an understanding of the Austrians' actions in recent years.

While they are vigorously promoting the German Customs Union in the north, they are actively establishing an Apennine Customs Union in the south. This is a shameless challenge to the great free trade norms!

So I can’t imagine what will happen next. If they create another Balkan Customs Union in the east, how should we face it? "