Rebirth of the Military Industrial Overlord

If you only look at the data on the balance sheet, the economies of Southeast Asian countries seem to be very healthy, but ah, these countries are basically labor-intensive industries that overflow from the Japanese countries, even the electronics industry, these countries The role played in the entire industrial chain is only the final assembly process, which belongs to the link with the lowest added value. Therefore, the prosperity of these countries is actually based on the prosperity of the country. From this point of view, the country is The so-called "flying geese" and "head geese" theories put forward by some economists are also quite reasonable.

But the problem is, what should I do if even the "head goose" is caught blind?

Throughout the mid to late 1980s, whether it was the Japanese people who shouted "Waukoku can say no" with full confidence, or other countries in Southeast Asia, I am afraid that no one has seriously considered this issue. Everyone was motivated and considered by the immediate prosperity. What is investment, reinvestment, expansion and expansion, to earn more money!

However, disaster struck suddenly one day...

A well-known fact is that since the beginning of the 1990s, with the bursting of the real estate and stock market bubbles, the economy of the country fell from its peak to the bottom almost instantly.

The sudden economic downturn from the boom period will inevitably lead to debt defaults or even bankruptcies in a large number of companies, and banks and financial institutions have many unrecoverable loans. The accumulation of these non-performing assets in turn makes it difficult for some over-speculative financial institutions...

Otherwise, when Tan Zhenhua went to Japan, how could he successfully acquire a stake in Fuji Bank, the core company of the "Furong Club" so easily? It was because the second young master who was holding a large sum of cash at the time, in the eyes of the "Furonghui", was the messenger sent by the Rizhao God to save them!

So far, the "head goose" leading the economic development of Southeast Asia has shown a decline.

However, in the early 90s in the past few years, the Japanese country was a bit depressed, but it could barely move. In any case, the production capacity transferred from the Japanese country to Southeast Asia was mainly labor-intensive industries and manufacturing. The prosperity of the manufacturing industry is mainly determined by market demand. Although the domestic economy of the country is terrible, the total demand of the world is growing. Therefore, Southeast Asians did not immediately feel the economic collapse of the country. Impact.

A study of human sociology once came to the conclusion that the closer the human beings live in the tropics, the more optimistic they are. This research deduced that the reason for this phenomenon is that the closer to the tropics, the more materials nature can provide to meet the basic needs of human survival, and the less the human society as a whole lacks the motivation to struggle-so there is a The possibility of an influential country is also lower.

Well, the results of this research, Huaxia actually summarized it as early as 2,000 years ago. Mencius said: Isn't that what it means to be born in sorrow and die in happiness?

As a result, when the dull Southeast Asian countries were still in the feast of "singing, singing, dancing, dancing", Huaxia has quietly grown into the world's preferred investment location for manufacturing. Southeast Asia once had the comparative advantages of low-cost labor and land. , Huaxia not only has it, but it is also more significant. Moreover, its workers are more hard-working, have a higher education level, and are more disciplined and better managed than those in Southeast Asia. Therefore, the Huaxia factory has higher production efficiency.

And it's not limited to this.

Southeast Asian countries, in the process of undertaking the industrial transfer from Japan, have never consciously upgraded their own basic industries, and have never thought of building their own supply chain supporting capabilities. They trust all technologies and supply chains from outside sources. For enterprises, therefore, they can only do what the Japanese country transfers, and the country will accept it.

But China is different.

From the very beginning, Huaxia has made it very clear that upgrading the country’s basic industries and the supply chain supporting capabilities of the entire industry chain has been the core issue of industry introduction. Under the guidance of this kind of thinking, after more than ten years of development, Huaxia has already A middleware supply network of the entire industry chain with a fairly modern level has been formed.

For any company, the allure of this network is huge, which means that investing in factories in China can solve most of the supply problems of purchased raw materials and parts locally, and this will undoubtedly greatly improve The efficiency of commodity production also saves the production cost of commodities.

What's more, Huaxia also has the largest population in the world, which means that Huaxia is likely to be the last blue star worthy of large-scale development and investment in the future market!

Under this trend, the foreign investment capital flowing into Southeast Asian countries began to transfer to China, but this transfer is slow and gradual. Therefore, before quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes, few people realize this.

Until 1995.

In this year, the Japanese economy, which has been in a downturn for many years, finally couldn't stand it. The government began to consciously cut interest rates while intervening in the exchange rate, pushing the yen to depreciate against the dollar to stimulate exports, hoping to save the economy.

Everyone should remember how the real estate and stock market bubbles in the Wa country suddenly burst back then-it originated from Mie Yeyasu's takeover of the central bank of the country and took tough measures to raise interest rates for six consecutive times. The central bank of the country raised the discount rate from 2.5%. Starting at 6%, this is a typical case of serious illness and then using tiger-and-wolf medicine, which immediately smashed the economic bubble of the country and triggered a serious financial crisis. Now, the country that has not learned the lesson has made the same mistake again. Reduced the interest rate from 6% to 0.5% in one breath!

The 0.5% interest rate is much lower than the interest rates of western developed countries and emerging markets. Therefore, as long as it can hedge the risk of yen appreciation and make a yen loan to invest in high-interest-rate countries, it is a good business that makes a profit without losing money. If the yen can depreciate during the investment period, there will be more room for arbitrage!

As a result, the hedge funds on Wall Street took action. They got loans from the Japanese countries one after another, and then flooded into Southeast Asian countries in droves.

At this time, the Southeast Asian countries, guided by the "advanced experience" of the Japanese country, mostly imitated the country's development model, using banks as the main engine of development, attracting foreign capital inflows with high interest rates of more than 10%, and pooling funds to develop their own economies. , And under the "education" of Western finance and various "economic experts", adopted a set of financial models that conform to Western theories.

They never thought that this was actually done by the so-called "economic experts" in the West represented by Wall Street.

To harvest the most tender leeks, you first need to plant the "leeks", so proper fertilization is also necessary, right?