From to 1935 2020

Option Three: Wait for Hitler to launch Barbarossa as in history.

And the fourth option is what China and the Soviet Union most want to see: After the Germans defeated Britain and France as in history, they then tried to delay the outbreak of the Soviet-German war until 1942. At this time, the Soviet Red Army was 100% After the preparations are complete, plus the CCP's reinforcements, there will be no need for Germany to fight at that time, and the Chinese and Soviet armies themselves plan to push over.

After referring to the history of the future, both leaders understand one thing: the capitalist society has not yet developed to the extreme of "financial capitalism", and they still have great correction power at this time.On the contrary, the socialist system is a "premature baby" whose productivity has not yet reached.

Historically, after World War II, the European and American capitalist world was forced to start self-improvement after facing the impact of the red wave that swept the world from the socialist camp.

They began to actively restrain the indiscriminate harvesting of capital, did not dare to de-industrialize, and actively distributed part of the profits to the bottom to reduce the proportion of exploitation——"They will build schools and hospitals for you (working people), and will improve your This is not because of their conscience, nor because they have become good people, but because we (the Communist Party) have been here!"

During the long Cold War period, although the capitalist powers continued to corrupt, during the Cold War, productivity developed at a high speed.

Although the countries in the socialist camp have also made great progress, various problems and internal self-degeneration are also growing.

In the end, in this war of comparing good and bad at the same time, the self collapses and perishes.

"Use World War II to dye more European countries red."

"We can't get it, and we definitely can't let the enemy (Europe and the United States) get it!"

"Draw the bottom of the pot and get rid of as many Asian, African and Latin countries as possible from the colonial blood-sucking system established by European and American countries!"

When the British and French delegations came to Moscow for negotiations in 1939, the starting point for the top leaders of the two red regimes was no longer to "defeat Nazi" Germany, but to put it after the Cold War in the next few decades .

Under this premise, many "politically incorrect" things have been put aside by the leaders of both sides.

To paraphrase Huang Ke's words: Even if it is to drive ducks to the sedan chair and forcefully twist melons, it will dye certain countries red.

Of course, this kind of "imperialism" is very heavy, the top leaders of China and the Soviet Union only "understand" each other and did not say it directly.

In February 1939, the territories of the Soviet Union and Germany were not directly bordered. Except for Poland in the south, the Baltic Sea was in the north, and the three Baltic countries were also separated.

At the beginning of the eighteenth century, Russia was in the era of Tsarist Russia, an era of rapid expansion, and because Russia's geographical location was inland, Russia needed a port city as a springboard, and at this time controlled the outlet of the Baltic Sea In the hands of the Swedes, after years of fighting with Sweden, the Baltic coast was slowly occupied by Russia, and the hatred between the three Baltic countries and Russia began at that time.

China and the Soviet Union completely defeated Japan in 1938, ending the Far East Campaign earlier than planned. This was Stalin's biggest surprise. This allowed him to concentrate all his strength in 1939 to recover the territory lost during the October Revolution.

In this matter, the CCP can only support the request of the Soviet Union - the reason is also from ancient times.

When Britain and France came to Moscow, in order to seduce the Soviet Union to attack Germany together, the three Baltic countries were first carried out and sold out. (This is also true in history.) What is more interesting is that at the same time, Hitler, who quietly offered an olive branch to the Soviet Union, also sold the three Baltic countries generously.

What's more interesting is that Britain, France and Germany do not support Germany's expansion towards Romania and Bulgaria, as well as southern Europe.But Hitler was smarter than Churchill Daladdi in that he knew that the most important thing was to stabilize the Soviet Union. The latter saw that the Soviet Union refused to agree, but he did not force it. In history, he signed the "Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact" with the Soviet Union very quickly. . (Hitler's idea is to settle accounts after the fall after defeating France)

And in this plane, the "olive branches" sent by Britain, France, and Germany to the Soviet Union did not receive a timely response.

In order to achieve the fourth goal, Stalin's method is the word "drag".

The later the "Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact" was signed, Hitler was afraid of launching the Polish campaign easily because he was afraid of the threat of war from the Soviet Union.As for the three Baltic countries, with the support of the Chinese younger brother for the Soviet Union to recover the "lost land since ancient times", Stalin has full confidence in this matter.

Then Stalin stepped on the two boats like a donkey with a carrot hanging in front of him. He saw Britain and France talking about the war threat of German fascism, seeing Germany talking about Britain and France’s troubles causing bad conscience, and facing the international community, he talked about the crisis of war in Europe. , the biggest behind-the-scenes conspirator is the United States on the other side of the earth.

The negotiations between several companies were not finished after two months. Stalin said in private: Germany has just annexed Czechoslovakia, and it will take time to digest it. It is impossible to start a war before 1940. Let's talk slowly...

Chairman Li Runshi was dragged by Stalin in Moscow, and after two days of grinding his mouth between the British and French representatives, he completed the task of "taking up the space for him", and left Moscow to go to Stalingrad with Huang Ke for "investigation".

Since 1937, the newly built factories in the Soviet Union were mainly concentrated in Stalingrad. Accompanied by Huang Ke, he visited the famous local tank factory (it was called a tractor factory at this time, but it was actually a tank factory), steel factory, machinery factory, etc. Looking at the densely packed chimneys and rows of T50 tanks produced on the assembly line, Li Runshi felt the shock of modern industry for the first time.

Walking in the workshop of the Dzerzhinsky Tractor Factory, looking at the rows of T50 tanks that had just rolled off the assembly line, Li Runshi asked Huang Ke, "How long will it take for China to achieve this step?"

Huang Ke replied: "It will take about ten years for China and the Soviet Union to remain friendly and receive continuous assistance similar to Project 156."

Then he said cautiously: "The ten years I'm talking about can only reach the level of watching and doing. If you want to expand production, you still need to rely on a large number of imports. But to achieve self-upgrade and self-creation, Self-replication, division, and regeneration will take about 30 to 40 years, but the industrial level of self-replication and regeneration I mentioned above can produce only second-level backward products. To be like European and American countries That way, it will take about 50 to [-] years without downgrading, or even an evolutionary upgrade!"

"How long does it take?"

"What I said above is the result of the most ideal state. Industrialization is not the introduction of a few factories and a few advanced technologies. It is called industrialization. It is to make the whole country, from production tools to production methods, production habits, production Culture, from machines to human thoughts, has been renovated and upgraded from the inside to the outside once, to be exact, several times before it can be considered industrialized.”

"How's that?"

When Huang Ke and Li Runshi were talking, they were accompanied by a large number of cadres from China. Among them, Huang Ke saw Liu Xiuyang, Ren Piaoshi and a bunch of future big shots.What Li Runshi asked Huang Ke was actually taking this opportunity to let the comrades around him listen.

Huang Ke pointed to the workers who were welding the tank not far away and said: "What we see here is only the machinery factory. The machinery factory is relatively simple, and it is purely based on the workers' skill. But this kind of skill, Without [-] years of education, [-] years of hard work in practical operation can’t be achieved. To work in such a factory, the minimum level of education must be a junior high school student, so that you can understand those complicated drawings. I When I was in Taiyuan, I took apprentices, most of them could not read a few characters, I could only ask them to help me, I reported the data, and let them imitate it, all of them knew what happened and didn’t know why ..."

Speaking of this, Huang Ke sighed and shook his head.

"At that time, there was no way. We taught apprentices in Taiyuan. I call it the most primitive experience teaching. They were all stragglers. They only used the "simple" mechanical cutting and milling. It’s just a few gear parts. The Westernization Movement in the Qing Dynasty in history was actually at this level for decades. There were very few experts in China who really mastered the key technologies, and at that time all foreigners mastered the core technologies.”

"This is still a machinery factory that seems to be easy to produce safely. The workers are not skilled enough. If there is an accident, it will probably cut off a finger, or produce a lot of waste parts. If it is replaced by a chemical factory next to it, if the workers operate If something goes wrong, the whole factory will be blown up to the sky, and everything will be gone..."

"To build such a large factory, there are three most difficult aspects."

"The first is how to acquire technology and how to accumulate capital. Chairman, you have all read Marxism-Leninism and know what's going on."

"The second is people. We have obtained a large number of cooperative workers and technicians who have basic cultural education and technical training. Everyone knows this, the current situation of our country, and we really need the help of the big brother of the Soviet Union."

"The so-called ten-year tree, one-hundred-year-old man. With the help of the big brothers of the Soviet Union, they helped us establish a complete talent training system in ten years. But this is only the first step in the preparation of people." step."

"It is actually quite troublesome to train a cooperative worker who meets industrial standards. Take the standard for working in this factory as an example: first, five years of primary school education, three years of junior high school education , plus three years of technical school apprenticeship training, this is considered to have completed the initial training of workers."

"But at this time these young people who have just left school..."

Speaking of this, Huang Ke pointed to a young Soviet apprentice who was pressing the button on the tank production line to help the master: "These students who have just left school can only do odd jobs in the factory at this time. To do auxiliary work, they have to be led by the master for two or three years before they have completed the task of being a teacher. Add up, it takes about 13 years of training time to train a child into a child who can work in this tank factory. Skilled workers who operate independently. If you want to train a qualified engineer, it will take a longer period.”

Liu Xiuyang interjected: "Can't we let a student follow the teacher's instructions since he was a child, learn only one technique, and only do one job for a long time..."

"It can be done like this. This method is called assembly line monkey work. Ford invented this method. But this method cultivates workers who are basically useless without this position. This method can only be used On simple projects that don’t require a lot of culture and work operations are not complicated.”

Huang Ke recalled: "In the chemical plant we visited yesterday, the technical operation of the production in it requires much higher fault tolerance than the tank factory, and requires more knowledge. The tank factory mainly depends on the hands-on skills of the workers. As long as people who know nothing are skilled enough, they can do it with foolish teaching and watching operations. In the chemical plant, if you know how to read instruments and analyze, the knowledge content will increase. Operation errors will occur. A little accident, if you are unlucky, the whole factory will blow up..."

Chapter 310 The Pain of Industrialization (Part [-])

"We have seen it for many days in the Soviet Union. In fact, the technology in the factories of the Soviet comrades is not the best compared with Europe and the United States. The capitalists are very wicked. The technology they are willing to sell to the outside world is often second-rate that has been eliminated in their own country. Teach the apprentices the truth of starving the master to death, and they also understand-this goes back to the point I mentioned above, if we just train a bunch of workers who can only operate the machine without knowing why. , our industrial equipment can only be controlled by others forever, and we can never improve and upgrade ourselves.”

The Chair concluded:

"It is not enough to have a factory, there are also qualified workers, and these workers must not only know how to operate, but also understand why they operate in this way. This is a normal factory."

"Yes, that's what it means"

When Huang Ke said this, he rationalized and said: "But the above-mentioned funds, machines, and the training of workers and engineers, we can all solve it, it just takes time. The real biggest dilemma is not here."

"Oh, where is it?" asked the chairman.

"As I said above, it is limited by technology and the quality of workers. When a factory is built, the biggest embarrassment faced by a late-developing country like China is: because the technology is a generation behind foreign counterparts, the workers are all newbies. The products produced, the finished product rate, and the high-quality rate are all much lower than foreign counterparts. From the first day of production, the factory will be embarrassed to find that our cost price is naturally higher than similar foreign products. Big cut!"

"Some products whose technology gap and cost are not much different from similar foreign products, at this time, in the market, they will be suppressed by foreign counterparts maliciously dumping at low prices. That is what I said in the past, the embarrassment that self-made is not as good as imported, That is, the more you make, the more you lose!"

Li Runshi replied: "That is not a real loss. In this process, we have gained skilled workers, and the cost we paid is that the meat is rotten in the pot, and the loss is also our own family. It is not really a loss. On the contrary, if all the products are imported, then the real losses will be lost.”

Huang Ke looked at Liu Xiuyang and said, "To sum it up, it's actually one sentence: long-term investment at a loss, this long-term is a long-term measurement unit of 20 or 40 years, and this is a long and painful process."

Historically, regarding domestic 100-ton rounds, Liu Xiuyang put forward the famous "buying is worse than building, and renting is worse than buying".To put it bluntly, the cause of the incident is very simple: At that time, a 12-ton ship was built by itself, and the whole set cost was [-] million US dollars.During the same period, the United States sold a large number of Liberty ships during World War II to the world at low prices, with a price of [-] US dollars.Not only that, but the boat was dismantled and recycled at that time, and one hundred thousand US dollars could be recovered.

Faced with such a huge price difference, how many leaders can restrain the impulse of "buying is worse than building"?

It's not just the 50-ton wheel.Historically, in the first [-] years after China's liberation, except for a few projects in the whole country, the industrial technology level of most factories was one or even two generations behind their foreign counterparts, and the natural cost was much higher than that of foreign countries.

"China wasted too much time by the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China. We are a late-developing industrial country. A late-developing industrial country is relatively early-developing. In the process of industrialization, the biggest problem is that our first-generation industrial machines, industrial The workers are actually outdated equipment and unskilled workers who have only mastered outdated technology.”

"To catch up with foreign counterparts, we need 20 years to train the first generation of workers, let them practice with outdated equipment, and accumulate a lot of experience and lessons in industrial production - this process is like The process of revolution needs to accumulate a lot of experience of victory and failure, and the process of industrialization also needs these. Of course, there are old masters, and the big brother of the Soviet Union who walks with them and teaches and imparts them hand in hand. This time can be greatly shortened, but there are many things It’s not enough to be taught by someone, you have to go through it yourself, make all the mistakes once, pay the price of being disabled or even dead, and only after you have suffered enough will you really understand.”

"After the first batch of workers took 20 years to become experienced and mature, the second and third batches of new-generation workers followed. At this time, the domestic education system was completed and a certain amount of experience was accumulated. With the cost of self-upgrading and evolution. That is to say, in the first 20 years, we need to wait for these workers to mature, and pay the full 20-year cost of losing money because self-made is not as good as imported, and this is only the first stage. "

"The advantage of the socialist system is that in this process, the education and training costs of qualified workers are basically borne by the state, and qualified workers can be provided in a timely manner in the large-scale industrialization process. The capitalist society A small government can’t do that.”

"The second stage is the stage of technological upgrading. The capitalist developed countries will not stand still and wait for us, they will continue to improve and upgrade their technology. We have experience and started to catch up. To catch up with them, we have to It will take another 30 to [-] years. During this period, when they find that China is catching up with them, they will use various means, dumping, suppressing, sabotaging, and even throwing poisonous candies in the name of joint ventures, as they have done in the past. sabotage, prevent us from completing industrial upgrading and become competitors to replace them..."

In private, Chairman Huang Kehe mentioned the concept of "failed industrialized" countries: small power countries such as Brazil and Argentina in South America.These capitalist countries, relying on selling minerals and resources to support industrialization, once stepped into the ranks of industrial countries one by one, and were even on the verge of becoming "moderately developed industrial countries" at one point.

Then, when they completed their industrial upgrading and their technology and cost were about to catch up with their foreign counterparts, all kinds of pressure from competitors also came: two crises, one is that the financial harvest of capitalist countries will appear regularly, leading to the collapse of the national economic crisis and the collapse of production. The products produced could not be sold, and the factories went bankrupt.The second is the targeted dumping by peers, and at the same time encountering China's terrible "moderately developed country pulverizer", taking away overseas and even domestic markets.

(Actually, in the 90 years from the 20s to the [-]s, China’s industry before the reformation was not only hit by European and American counterparts, but also by the four Asian tigers, and even the four tigers and their ilk. The chemical, home appliance, and automobile industries are particularly serious.)

Industrialization is divided into four stages: primitive agricultural country-primary industrial country-moderate industrial country-advanced industrial country.Every upgrade process involves a large amount of long-term capital investment and the embarrassment of "self-made is not as good as imported".Each upgrade cycle takes 20 years, and the process is extremely painful: the government needs to rack its brains to extract money from other industries and civilians to feed back the industry.However, among the people, there will inevitably be a situation where "one generation has suffered for several generations".

A pseudo-democratic capitalist country with an electoral system that changes every few years simply cannot bear the long-term blood-sucking of this gold-eating beast.

Huang Ke said to the chairman:

"One generation, two generations, several generations, everyone has to suffer decades in advance for future generations!"

"A late-developing agricultural country can only complete this great process of industrialization by relying on a strong government, a few strong and long-lived leaders who implement this proposition for a long time, and the support of the great people."

"In the so-called backward capitalist societies in the West, their inefficient fake democratically elected governments can't do this at all, and the factories opened by the so-called national capitalists, capitalists who just want to make quick money, how can it be used for decades? Time has been losing money for industrialization? Japan’s industrialization process after the Meiji Restoration and before World War I was maintained by the government’s long-term subsidy and large subsidies. Until now, Japanese products have been “the worst imported goods in China.” ’, under the same circumstances, cannot compete with similar products from other countries.”

Historically, it took the CCP 28 years from the founding of the party to the establishment of New China.However, it took about 60 years for China to start industrialization and catch up with the level of the world's moderately developed countries. After 70 years, there are still a large number of short-term projects.This is also because in the process, the developed capitalists degenerate themselves in various ways, pursue financial magic to make quick money, and start to go to industry.

In the six to seventy years of catching up with the international advanced level, in order to make up for the losses caused by "self-manufacturing is not as good as importing", it has to "involve" and harvest agricultural farmers with industrial cuts.Or take over a large number of intensive low-profit industries abandoned by Western countries, "hundreds of millions of shirts for an airplane", in order to maintain the huge funding gap for industrial upgrading.

And in this process, even China has repeated several times and even gave up halfway. (For example, during a certain spring, a large number of industrial upgrades stagnated.)

In the last few days before leaving the Soviet Union, Huang Ke, as a "tour guide", led the senior leaders from China to walk around the major industrial chains of the Soviet Union.During the visit, he continued to educate these people about what industrialization is, industrial chains, cost control, industrial upgrading, and the pain of industrialization.

It is difficult for most of the people on the scene to really understand this kind of knowledge that was instilled along the way while watching, because many mistakes have to be made once before they can truly understand that they are mistakes.

The yield per mu is 11 jin, and mistakes such as large-scale steelmaking can be avoided if they are deliberately prevented.However, there are some problems that the traversers are well aware of and difficult to solve.

For example, in a factory, under the revolutionary enthusiasm of the workers, the workers below, under the command of the superiors who don't know how to do it, mess around recklessly, and then produce a lot of inferior products. It must be foreseeable in the early stage.

Historically, after China introduced a full set of J-[-] fighter jet technology, it took a full ten years to fully understand this technology. One of the reasons for this long time was that Sino-Soviet relations deteriorated early, and Soviet experts withdrew.At that time, the country just learned the technology "hands-on" rather than in the heart, knowing it but not knowing why.

Then the teacher left, and everything can only be explored by myself.Because they knew what was happening and didn't know why, the people below made all kinds of random "improvement" and self-righteous "innovation". As a result, a large number of waste products were produced and many planes were crashed.

In 1960, I realized that there were a lot of major problems in the quality of the aircraft and rectified it many times, but it was not until 1971 that I could barely understand the technology.

This is just a small corner of the countless problems that have arisen in the process of China's industrialization in the first 30 years.

From an agricultural society to an industrial society, from peasants to workers, almost everyone of the first generation of new factory workers lacks sufficient "industrial age discipline and awareness of standardized production" and seriously lacks "safety in production". ", "standardized production" cognition, and even think that these are superfluous.And instinctively resented and opposed.

In private, Huang Ke told the chairman and other leaders who knew his life experience based on his own experience: I heard their memories from my grandfather, parents, early workers, and finally established these consciousnesses, all because of seeing a lot of different people. Disciplined colleagues only understand after an accident, disability or even death.

"In order to solve the problem that the first generation of industrial workers who first entered the factory were unwilling to abide by the norms, did not understand safety awareness, and even took all kinds of laziness and self-righteous work attitudes, both the Soviet Union and China ended up using the same method."

"Comrade Stalin established the Cheka system. Use whips, bayonets, and even gallows to deal with all kinds of stealing, rape and slippery behaviors in industrial production!"

"In China, a similar revolutionary committee has been established to deal with similar behaviors with the crime of counter-revolutionary sabotage of production. My grandfather called it: the revolutionary high-pressure policy, forcing workers to honestly regulate production. According to my grandfather's Recalling that in the first 30 years after liberation, there were production accidents and quality accidents, and it was easy to be labeled as the current counter-revolutionary! The online chatter and keyboard warriors I was in the 21st century, in this era, few can stand it. "

"Human beings are easy to slack off. After 1980, whether it was the Soviet Union or China, with the disappearance of the high-pressure policy, in the next ten years, the state-owned enterprises on both sides, the quality of industrial products was a mess. The Soviet Union was even more serious After Stalin’s death, they messed up. Except for military products, the quality of their civilian products is not even comparable to that of North Korea’s counterparts. In China, as far as my grandfather and parents recalled, in the 80s, workers in chemical factories even exported products The weight is not accurate. (This is the memory of the author’s mother)”

"When netizens in the 21st century discuss the topic of industrialization, what I often say is that any industrial party that is a bit ideal goes back to the pre-liberation period, and everyone will eventually become a 'tyrant' like Comrade Stalin."

"He will see a lot of comrades at the upper level who can't bear 'imported is worse than self-made' and all kinds of poisonous candies thrown out by capitalist countries, and they want to pounce on them and lick them. Fools."

"At the middle level, I saw a bunch of former comrades who gradually degenerated and separated from the masses in various ways. In the end, they had to launch a big purge, or various movements to cleanse the revolutionary ranks."

"And at the bottom, when they see those who are playing tricks, they will be so angry that they will form a revolutionary committee or a Cheka to force them to work hard..."

"The real leader of the industrial party, the person who understands industry, is actually the most hated tyrant in the eyes of everyone in the end! For example, the quality problems in the manufacturing process of the J-[-] aircraft can be solved by implementing the Qin law. Every part Whoever produced it must be recorded in the record, and if there is a problem, find the producer to be held accountable according to the number!"

Chapter 311