Metropolis: My IQ is 300

Chapter 88

Chapter 83 I think game theory is controversial (seeking support, fifth)

The economics teacher, Liu Li, woke up in the morning and received a notice that today Chen Fan will go to her class.

Peking University does not know that Chen Fan’s students may exist, but the teacher does not exist.

“What, economics, didn’t this guy just finished Goldbach’s conjecture? Didn’t he think about playing for a while? He just made more than 20 million dollars, don’t he know how to enjoy it?”

“I don’t know, but Chen Fan wants to listen to the game theory of economics.”

“That thing hasn’t improved for many years. What is there to hear about, I really don’t understand it. Is Chen Fan so boring?”

“I don’t know, you are ready to prepare.”

At this time, Liu Li looked at Chen Fan and said, “The three hypotheses you mentioned are official explanations. Do you have any extra thoughts?”

“I think the absolute rationality is unreasonable. People have emotions. Because of the existence of emotions, this is naturally not valid.”

“Why?”

“I don’t know how to explain it. Let’s start with an economic experiment.”

Economic experiments, also called economic games.

Liu Li became interested and said: “Yes, yes, Chen Fan, you have a certain understanding of game theory, come, come up, come on, come on, let me see.”

Chen Fan nodded and walked onto the stage.

The ratio of men to women in the audience is five times that of girls than boys.

Everyone looked at this boy with that firm eyes.

“Will this man like girls?”

“Curious, really curious, especially curious.”

“I always feel that this person is just like a robot.”

Chen Fan came to the stage and said: “Economics has an interesting game called Beauty Coin. Teacher, I will do it with you?”

“I know, it’s more suitable for you to play this game with someone you don’t know.”

Chen Fan nodded.

Randomly ordered a girl and walked onto the stage.

An unfamiliar beauty comes over to chat with you and asks to play a game with you. The beauty suggested: “Let us show one side of the coin, positive or negative. If we are all heads, then I will give you 3 yuan, if we are all negatives, I will give you 1 yuan, and you will give me the rest. 2 yuan will do.” Sounds like a good proposal. If I were a male, I would play it anyway, but economic considerations are another matter. Is this game really fair enough?

Chen Fan elaborated on the game, and the teacher wrote it down on the blackboard.

The girl froze for a moment. This game is indeed linked to economics, but where is the link?

“What is this game?”

Chen Fan said: “This game itself is that you will definitely win, I think this algorithm is not difficult.”

Countless people in the audience looked at Chen Fan.

Brother, we have an IQ of 300, which is not difficult.

Make it clear.

Chen Fan sighed helplessly, and said, “This is just a simple probability calculation. How difficult? Do you guys know about mathematical modeling? I remember there is an introduction in advanced mathematics.”

Teacher, kill this Chen Fan, I understand, Chen Fan is here to pretend to be forced.

“Yes, I’m definitely here to pretend to be forced, this guy is so serious about how to say it.”

“In this game, we are still thinking about the weight ratio.”

Chen Fan reluctantly took the chalk and wrote on the blackboard.

“Assume that the probability of our heads is x, and the probability of negatives is 1-x. In order to maximize the benefits, we should have the same profit when the opponents are heads or negatives, otherwise the opponent can always change the probability of the positives and negatives. Let our total income decrease, the equation is 3x+(-2)*(1-x)=(-2)*x+1*(1-x)

In layman’s terms, this equation means that the benefits you get when your opponent keeps showing up are the same and the biggest benefit as your opponent keeps showing up. Solving the equation gives x=3/8, which means that on average every eight times we show 3 positives and 5 negatives are our optimal strategy. And substituting x=3/8 into the income expression 3*x+(-2)*(1-x) can get the expected income each time, and the calculation result is -1/8 yuan.

Similarly, suppose that the probability of a beautiful woman being positive is y, and the probability of a negative one is 1-y, the equation is -3y+2(1-y)=2y+(-1)*(1-y)

The solution is that y is also equal to 3/8, and the expected income of the beauty is 2(1-y)-3y=1/8 yuan each time. This tells us that with both parties adopting the optimal strategy, the average beauty wins 1/8 yuan each time. In fact, as long as the beauty adopts the (3/8,5/8) plan, no matter what plan you use, you can’t change the situation. If all are positive, the expected return each time is (3+3+3-2-2-2-2-2)/8=-1/8 yuan

If everything goes wrong, the expected return each time is also (-2-2-2+1+1+1+1+1)/8=-1/8 yuan. ”

Using both writing and saliva, after Chen Fan gave the formula, everyone in the audience understood it.

It turned out to be the expected return. This is understood, economics is taught.

The teacher said: “This is called pricing weight interest in economics, Chen Fan, where do you see it?”

“In theory, I have read all game theory, and I have read all economics books, but I still don’t understand one point.”

The teacher picked up the blackboard eraser and began to wipe the blackboard.

“There is a reason for choosing me as your economics teacher. What you think is a topic I wrote five years ago. What is the role of human emotions in economics.”

Chen Fan’s eyes lit up, standing aside, looking at Liu Li, this was the inspiration he needed.

“Prisoner’s dilemma, all students who are doing it know it.”

A student raised his hand and said, “I know, this is very famous. The police put the two in two different rooms for interrogation. For each suspect, the police’s policy is: if two criminal suspects Everyone confessed the crime and surrendered the stolen goods, so the evidence was conclusive. Both were found guilty and sentenced to 8 years in prison. If only one suspect confessed, and the other did not confess but denies, the crime of obstruction of official duties (Because there is evidence that he is guilty) An additional 2 years, and the confessor was commended for 8 years and released immediately. If both of them deny, the police cannot convict both of them for theft due to insufficient evidence, but they can enter privately. The charges of the residence sentenced both of them to 1 year in jail.”

The teacher nodded and motioned the student to sit down.

“We must know that these prisoners are emotional and deceptive when they confess, and the police themselves are emotional, and emotions are the core element that affects people’s judgments.”

“The stated Nash equilibrium, the theory given is that people will move in the direction of maximizing their own interests, but don’t forget that Nash has struggled with schizophrenia throughout his life.”

Everyone has actually understood this.

Liu Li said: “I originally planned to talk about game theory today. Actually, I don’t expect you to understand it. In history, the game theory has been studied very well and has already won the Nobel Prize. But now that Chen Fan has talked about it, the following , I’m speaking on behalf of myself, not the official answer to game theory.”

Everyone nodded, this is the teacher who wants to take out the private goods.

“I have done such a survey in the stock market. On the stock exchange side, the staff in charge of operations, in the morning, the proportion of stock trading making money is 28.4%, but in the evening, it is down. Here it is; the amount is 26.5%, but by 8 o’clock in the evening, it is increased to 36.3%. The addition of Nash equilibrium brings game theory to 32.”

Chen Fan nodded.

Liu Li continued: “However, this data is unstable, which makes it difficult to accept. Mathematics does not have such a fluctuating probability. Because it changes, it means that the data is inaccurate. Take the average value. In economics, Exist, but not desirable.”

Liu Li wrote a series of numbers and said: “For example, game theory is called a wingman among the people who know about picking up girls, right. In fact, this is also inaccurate. People have many standards for choosing a spouse. If you approach girls according to game theory, the final result is only mechanical communication.”

Chen Fan agrees.

Chen Fan has benefited a lot from Anna’s affairs.

Anna knew herself in advance.

Game theory itself ignores the influence of factors such as the environment, and finally results in less than 50% of the data, which is an embarrassing thing.

“Chen Fan, I know your research. You are looking for a coefficient, a coefficient that can be replaced by a group or a value space, to improve game theory, right?”

“Yes, I hope that the accurate value of game theory can be increased to more than 50%.”

Liu Li took out the blackboard eraser, erased the text on the blackboard, and said, “Then I will give you this one. Remember, if you find that the washing reaches 50%, or 60%, Don’t tell others, just know it yourself.”

“Why?”

“Because, in that way, everyone is a stock god. Then, the economy may collapse in the end. You said before that your research may change the world economic structure. This is correct. It is not that the game theory fails to reach a higher level. No, if it is reached, you cannot share it. This is the rule. Then, when you cannot share it, how do you explain that you have completed such a high-level numerical study?”

Chen Fan understands, the original answer is here.

The higher coefficient was discarded by everyone.

Even if you really research it out, what do you say?

You can’t say it.

This may take into account the selfless concept of mathematics.

Chen Fan looked firm and said, “I think, I can try, teacher, can you give me your data?”

‘This is okay, but Chen Fan, I think what you have to deal with now is the following question, how do you solve it when someone issues a war on your mathematics. ’

ps: Please support, thank you all. .