Investor That Can See The Future

Chapter 453

Just as everyone is different, so do economists.

Some advocate big government, some advocate small government, some view the economic situation optimistically, while others view it pessimistically.

Professor Wei Hewei is a representative pessimist, and to some extent, he is called China’s Doctor Doom.

Even before the collapse of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2015, there were voices who were concerned about the bubble, but he is the only one who accurately timed and scaled the bubble.

There are people in the world who can do this without having the ability to foresight.

Professor Wei Hewei, who is now in his early fifties, is from China, not from studying abroad. He speaks short English, so the difficult conversations were in Chinese, and Ellie interpreted them in the middle.

“As you know, China’s growth rate continues to decline.”

It goes without saying that the higher the GDP, the lower the growth rate. It is impossible for a country the size of China to achieve high growth of close to 10 percent annually in the first place.

The problem is the trend. The rate of decline in the growth rate is steeper than expected.

The Chinese government introduced the Baoba policy of upholding 8 percent, but it was soon changed to Bao Chi.

“Currently, Bao Liu, who claims to keep 6 percent, is in a difficult state.”

“There was also talk that 6 percent was broken.”

Last quarter, the Chinese government announced economic growth of 6.6 percent. But no one really believes it.

Professor Wei Hewei nodded his head.

“Everyone knows that the Chinese government is manipulating statistics and figures.”

There are international rules for preparing various economic indicators, including GDP. However, looking at what China has announced, it is not the only thing that is strange.

At worst, even policy makers collect and analyze their own data.

“Nevertheless, the economic growth rate announced by the Chinese government is very important. Because it has been manipulated ever since.”

It’s a funny thing, but if you consistently manipulated the indicator, it would rather be reliable.

“The problem is that, despite the manipulation, the growth rate keeps going down. The aging problem is also serious. In China, there is a saying called Mibu Line. It means you get old before you get rich. Before that happens, we must at least settle into a sluggish society.”

A sluggish society means a society in which all people live in abundance.

Deng Xiaoping promoted reform and opening up and advocated that those who can become wealthy first become wealthy. However, as a result, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened, and now it is a situation that needs to be addressed.

The policy that came out was a sluggish society, and to this end, China continued to raise the minimum wage while developing underdeveloped inland regions.

“This is where the government’s dilemma arises.”

In order to sustain growth, the government must continue to release money. However, there is a risk that government and corporate debt will continue to rise and the already severe real estate bubble will be at stake.

In order to prevent this, preemptive industrial structural reforms will increase unemployment and reduce growth rates, and if done wrong, the Chinese economy will fall into a swamp of stagnation.

“For structural reform, timing and precision are important. Within the range that the patient’s physical strength can withstand, only the smallest affected area should be cut out.”

“When do you think the timing is?”

“It is already late. So we need to do it as soon as possible.”

Although this is simple, it is not an easy task.

It is difficult to feed 50 million people, but China has to support 30 times that number. Perhaps the policy makers are also rotting their heads.

“Even at the party level, we are aware of the risks. But when a problem arises, we just fix it from time to time.”

China’s crisis theory did not come out in a day or two.

Last month, during an emergency meeting of party leaders, President Zhang Pinghua said that we should be wary of black swans and stop the gray rhinoceros.

A black swan is not responding to a crisis because it is ignorant, whereas a gray rhino is knowing but not responding.

This was nothing more than a direct quotation of Professor Wei Hewei’s remarks.

“If, as the professor said, the Chinese economy is in crisis, when will it be able to recover?”

“A V-shaped rebound is impossible, and it will be a U-shaped rebound, but that will take a while. Korea was able to overcome the IMF crisis quickly because the world economy was booming at the time. But now, except for the United States, the whole world is in a swamp of low growth. The EU alone is barely supporting the economy through quantitative easing. EU membership conditions include fiscal deficit and public debt. The fiscal deficit is less than 3% of GDP, and public debt is less than 60% of GDP. But out of the 28 EU countries, how many countries do you think are protecting it now?”

It’s a very easy question.

“There is none.”

“Yes.”

Even Germany and France do not.

It is foolish to cling to balanced finances in a time of economic downturn. In a situation where businesses and households reduce consumption, the government has no choice but to release money.

The problem is that even if you do this, the game won’t survive.

China played a major role in overcoming the global financial crisis, the biggest crisis in human economic history.

It would have taken a long time for the global economy to emerge from recession if China hadn’t emerged as the G2.

So what if China collapses?

“The Chinese economy is like a giant unicycle. The moment you stop, you immediately fall. The problem is that the wheels on the bike are too big.”

“Other bikes running next to me will also fall over.”

As the saying goes, China is too big to die right now.

There are not a few countries that are now dependent on China. And that includes Korea.

No matter how much you dislike China, Korea is a country that makes a living from exports, and China is Korea’s largest trading partner.

If China’s domestic market collapses, the whole world will inevitably suffer. This must be the dignity of 1.5 billion people.

“I am not a pessimist. The reason I keep talking about the pessimistic outlook is to make sure that doesn’t happen. Even if it happens, if you prepare in advance, you will be able to lessen the shock.”

The time was up while we were talking.

We got up and shook hands.

“I heard you well. Thank you.”

“It was a really fun time for me. We would like to ask you to visit Peking University sometime. A lot of Chinese students want to meet Jinhoo Kang.”

“If I go to Beijing, I will definitely stop by.”

* * *

While the heads of state were busy with their business, I met with Li Suwei, Commerce Manager, separately for the work that Taekkyu had asked for.

He came to Cambodia and met the Prime Minister and welcomed me even though he was busy.

“What’s going on, Mr. Kang?”

This time, Ellie was next to me as an interpreter.

“It’s not a big deal, there’s one thing I want to ask you.”

“Haha, say whatever you want.”

“May I know when the game judge’s review will resume?”

China is the world’s largest gaming market. However, in order to service the game in China, it is necessary to obtain permission from the authorities. This is called a version number, but China stopped issuing the version number from the beginning of this year.

There is no review at all, so the launch of new games is completely blocked.

For some time now, they have been gradually reopening their licenses against domestic companies, but there are still very few. In addition, the number of games that can be launched is limited by setting the total amount of editions.

Even more, there is a high possibility that it will only give the verdict to local game companies.

Currently, Lost Fantasy M is being serviced in 20 countries, and the online version is being serviced in 15 countries including Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and North America, but it is not yet available in the Chinese market.

In order for VRMMORPGs to secure more than 100 million users in the future, it is essential to target the Chinese market. To do that, I’ll have to drill the plate now.

“Recently, the domestic public opinion is not very good because of the problem of game addiction among teenagers.”

Excessive use of any hobby can lead to addiction.

It is not uncommon to refuse to go to school because of playing games, and it is not uncommon for parents to beat their parents for not being able to play games, or to die while playing games without eating properly.

As a result, military dormitories were created to treat game addiction.

Of course, there are only a few cases, but because of the large population, there are bound to be many cases.

It’s probably the same in China, too, that it’s a game.

On the surface, they are promoting game addiction and youth protection, but there is also a big view that the party is trying to tame the game industry and the IT industry.

“The revised rules will be announced soon.”

I nodded.

“OTK Games complies with Chinese regulations. Lost Fantasy Online operates only on a flat rate and does not charge separately.”

“The OTK Company is an important partner in the Chinese economy. The same goes for games.”

China is also aware of the importance of the game industry and is working hard to develop its own game industry. They are also very interested in VRMMORPGs developed by OTK Games.

“We will have to consult with the relevant ministries, but we will take action so that we can receive a judgment as soon as possible.

“Thank you.”

This time, it is debt. If something comes, something must go.

“I will visit China soon.”

Li Suwei, director of commerce, looked satisfied.

“Anytime welcome.”

* * *(Read more @ wuxiax.com)

During the Asian Economic Forum, leaders met and various investment plans and MOUs were announced.

The joint statement to be announced at the closing ceremony will include measures for economic development in Asia and support measures for developing countries. Delegates from each country continued the discussion over the draft statement.

Another noteworthy thing is the participation of the North Korean delegation.

North Korea participated in the first forum held in Beijing, but only the embassy ambassador attended the forum in New Delhi. However, this time, Ri Hae-ryong, vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, who can be said to be North Korea’s second-in-command, attended with the working group. Its size has also doubled compared to before.

It is very unusual for North Korea to have such a high-level person attend an international event.

Two reasons are assumed.

First, North Korea, which is suffering from a chronic power shortage, is showing great interest in TWR. Since it is a small reactor, it can be built anywhere, and the fuel cost is close to zero as waste fuel rods are recycled and completely burned. Even when maintenance and management costs are taken into account, the economic feasibility is significantly higher than other power generation facilities. Since there is no fear of diverting it into nuclear weapons, it will be easy to obtain permission from the international community.

Second, Vladivostok is Russia’s largest city adjacent to the North Korean border. As such, the development of the Far East is very important to the North Korean economy.

A typical example is the Rajin-Hasan project. The plan was to renovate and renovate railroads in North Korea’s Rajin and Russia’s Hassan through cooperation between North Korea and Russia, and to combine the two cities into an economic zone.

When this project was first carried out, there was even talk that the Siberian Railway could be connected to South Korea… … It is currently on hiatus due to the nuclear test.

As North Korea is in desperate need of foreign currency due to various sanctions, North Korea is hoping for economic cooperation with China and Russia.

President Huh Chang-min, who participated in the forum, announced the plan for denuclearization and a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at the gathering of the media.

“The clock pointing to the era of denuclearization and lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula is moving again. Timeless execution is important. We must move forward tirelessly toward the Korean Peninsula of peace and prosperity!”

* * *

That evening.

A dinner party was held at the dormitory where the North Korean delegation was staying, inviting the South Korean president and businessmen. I had no intention of going, but the media was paying attention to whether I should attend or not, so I couldn’t not go.

I exchanged greetings with President Huh Chang-min, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Unification. Foreign Minister Kim Seong-cheol has met before, but this is the first time he has met with Unification Minister Yoon Je-hoon.

If you think about it, the fact that there is a department called the Ministry of Unification is unique to Korea.

After a while, Vice Chairman Ri Hae-yong appeared. He greeted President Huh Chang-min and the ministers, and then came to me.

Age is about late 60’s. He is rather small, about 165 centimeters tall.

Vice Chairman Lee Hae-yong warmly extended his hand.

“It seems that you are all meeting CEO Kang Jin-hoo here. Looking at his performances in the meantime, I felt proud that CEO Kang is our nation.”

As I live, I’m sure I’ll meet even the second-largest North Korean.

I shook hands with him.

“Thank you for your words. But didn’t the Rodong Sinmun criticize me as ‘a puppet of the U.S. imperialists’, ‘a vicious reactionary capitalist’, or ‘a vicious South Korean puppet gang’?”

“… … .”