Hollywood Hunter

As of January 1990, the proven oil reserves of the Gulf region accounted for 65% of the world's total oil reserves and 43% of the world's oil demand. Among them are only Iraq and Kuwait. Even after decades of exploitation, oil reserves still rank among the top ten in the world.

Therefore, it is conceivable how strong the turbulence in the Gulf region will have on the world's crude oil supply.

When the news of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait came on August 2, international crude oil prices began to soar. As of the close of Friday, August 3, international crude oil prices had soared to US$27.63 per barrel, an increase of 29 compared to before the outbreak of the war. %.

Moreover, this is obviously just the beginning.

Simon happened to remember that in the original time and space, the price of crude oil triggered by the Kuwait War was US$41.07 on October 21.

Because of the influence of Simon this big butterfly, many things are no longer so sure. However, Simon believes that the problem of international crude oil prices hitting the high of $40 this time is still not too big.

new York.

Cersei Capital Headquarters in Rockefeller Center, Midtown Manhattan.

Although it was Sunday, today's Cersei Capital headquarters is still overcrowded. Even the teams of Apollo Management and Black Rock Asset Management are very excited.

Except for the loss of some profits due to the lack of timely clearance of short positions in the last week before the war broke out, Cersei Fund Management's layout in various types of crude oil futures contracts basically met expectations.

As of the outbreak of the war on August 2, Cersei Fund Management has established various types of crude oil futures such as mainstream Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures, as well as surrounding light diesel futures, unleaded gasoline futures, and high-sulfur fuel oil futures. Huge long contracts totaling $25 billion.

Cersei Capital has been opening positions since the end of June. The opening price based on the international crude oil price ranged from a minimum of $13 to $20 the day before the war broke out.

Starting next week, Cersei Capital will gradually liquidate its long contracts.

In fact, this matter has been going on since the day the war broke out.

In fact, it was because I had to take the initiative to do so.

Simon wants to start liquidation again when the crude oil price approaches or reaches $40, but this is simply not realistic.

As we all know, futures trading is a zero-sum game. If someone makes money, someone must lose money, and profit and loss are equal.

For example, if Cersei Capital itself took the wrong direction this time and established a short position of up to 25 billion US dollars in crude oil futures, then once the war broke out, the international crude oil price soared from 20 US dollars before the war to a maximum of 40 US dollars, an increase of 100%. For futures contracts, Cersei Capital theoretically will pay the other party a huge sum of US$25 billion.

However, Cersei's capital account has less than $6 billion in funds.

If the bulls insist on refusing to close the position within the range of Cersei Capital's loss, Cersei Capital will have to default.

Defaults in the process of futures trading are very rare, but they are not uncommon. For example, the severe crude oil price fluctuations caused by the sudden war. Perhaps before the outbreak of the war, some futures speculators hope that they can continue to supplement. The margin was struggling to maintain. After the war broke out, hopes were shattered. Many futures speculators directly chose to give up. Some speculators who took close to 20 times the high leverage directly defaulted on the day of the war.

However, a default by speculators does not actually mean a default in the futures contract.

Because there are two guarantees between futures brokers and futures exchanges.

When the futures speculators' account funds are insufficient to make up for the loss, as the party that guarantees the transaction, the futures brokerage will invest funds to fill the difference to ensure that the transaction proceeds.

When the funds of the futures broker cannot ensure the completion of the transaction, the futures exchange will use its own reserve funds to supplement it.

In the most serious case, in order to avoid the collapse of the futures trading system, the national level will also participate in the rescue.

In the stock market crash in 1987, the S&P 500 index futures volatility caused by the huge fluctuations of Black Monday triggered federal rescue measures. On the night of October 19, after the direct intervention of the Federal Treasury Department, major US banks were able to provide huge amounts of funds to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to avoid defaults.

Because of the accident of the war, this time, crude oil futures trading also touched the exchange level.

This also means that if it is a US$5 billion bet of US$5 billion, the winning party will not only get US$5 billion at the speculator level, but also at the two levels of futures brokers and futures exchanges to ensure contract delivery. And a large sum of subsidies.

Conference room at Cersei Capital's headquarters.

At the end of the day’s meeting, it was already evening, and the summer sunset broke into this office building with excellent views through the gaps of Manhattan’s high-rise buildings.

Dismissing everyone else, Janet got up and leaned over to sit in Simon's arms, humming to indicate that she was tired.

Simon smiled and helped her relax and said: "After this time, probably many futures brokers will close their doors directly, right?"

Since this big market spread to the exchange level, the intermediary brokers are naturally not immune, and often need to fill a large amount of funds to ensure delivery. Relatively speaking, long profits will not feed back too many brokers. They can only get a commission that they deserve.

"It is estimated that there are several hundred," Janet said lazily, squinting: "Except for the large brokers supported by parent companies such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan, and Citi, many small and medium independent brokers have basically closed their doors. "

Few speculators can directly cooperate with futures exchanges, and they usually require futures brokers to tie in guarantees.

There are many types of futures brokers, and half of the larger ones are affiliated to the futures brokerage departments of large investment banks. However, there are countless small and medium-sized futures brokers in North America and around the world, in various countries and cities.

In Simon's memory, because of this big market situation, countless futures brokers around the world have declared bankruptcy, and the entire industry will be in a slump for many years to come.

Moreover, this incident also triggered another consequence, the sharp contraction of crude oil futures trading.

For a long time to come, there will be no more shorts in the market, and Cersei Capital will not be able to build positions on a large scale, and can only turn its attention to other areas.

With the outbreak of the war, stock markets all over the world have plummeted.

On August 2 and August 3, the S&P 500 index fell from a high of 371 points to 356 points at the close of trading on Friday. In the next period of time, it is likely to fall to a minimum of 300 points. In order to focus on the crude oil futures market, Cersei Capital was not distracted to establish a short S&P 500 index futures position. Now entering the market, it is also impossible to do much.

In the plan, Cersei Capital will complete the clearance next week.

In the future, Cersei Capital has a large amount of funds. Because of the sharp decline in various types of transactions, it is difficult to do much.

After the weekend, entering a new trading day, crude oil prices continued to soar.

The situation in the Gulf continues to be turbulent.

On August 7, the Bush administration formally approved Operation ‘Desert Shield’, and federal troops formally stationed in Saudi Arabia to resist a possible invasion by Iraq.

However, when the ‘Desert Shield’ project was implemented, a wave of anti-war broke out in the United States immediately. Both the media and the public were very worried that the Bush administration would drag the country into another protracted ‘Vietnam War’.

The direct confrontation between the federal army in Saudi Arabia and the Iraqi army also means that the original promise of the United States not to interfere in Iraq and Kuwait has turned into empty talk.

At the same time, during the five trading days from August 6th to August 10th, Cersei Capital quickly completed the liquidation of huge long positions.

The reason why the longs with more than 20 billion US dollars can complete the delivery so quickly is mainly because whether they are short futures speculators, futures brokers or futures exchanges, they are more urgent than Cersei Capital. As the international crude oil prices continue to rise, For every day delayed, the loss increases by one point.

On August 11, when Cersei Fund Management Company completed all financial settlements, the net asset value of this hedge fund had increased from the initial 3.5 billion US dollars to 12,637,721 million US dollars. In less than eight months, Cersei Fund Management Company has achieved an investment return of more than 260%.

This time, although Simon only occupies a 1 billion share of the 3.5 billion US dollars of principal, the fund’s commission rate is only 20%, and 30% of the 20% profit will be allocated to Cersei Fund Management. Other partners. However, just based on the net asset value of US$12.637 billion at this time, Simon's profit and commission figures can reach US$3.367 billion in addition to the US$1 billion principal.

In the next few months, even if Cersei Capital’s income is zero, after the planned year-end settlement and return, Simon’s total overseas cash hoarding will be close to US$8 billion.

It can be said that even considering the capital gains tax factor transferred to the country, Simon can basically complete the acquisition of MCA through its own funds.

In addition, although Simon can only obtain one-third of the profits of Cersei Fund Management Company this time, it has also largely eliminated some potential risks caused by the rapid rise of Simon in recent years through profit sharing.

Moreover, the profit of more than 9 billion U.S. dollars seems to have been divided into a large part, but apart from the Johnston family, which has a capital of 500 million U.S. dollars, which cut away another larger piece of cake, other Australian and American investors dispersed In the end, the profits received were basically less than one-tenth of Simon's.

Simon himself is still the one with the most profit.

After a week of work in New York, Simon and Janet returned to Los Angeles together.

The next phase of instruction received by the Cersei Fund Management Company team is to hunt freely, and both Simon and his wife no longer need to stare at all times.

With a 30% stake in Cersei Fund Management Company, the team’s 6 partners are very likely to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in dividends this year, and even ordinary employees have an expected huge bonus, so the team can be described as smug.

Back in Los Angeles, the time is already August 13.

The North American summer vacation has come to an end, and it has not been greatly affected by the outbreak of the war.

Prior to July 27, Daenerys Entertainment and Disney’s "Hand Shaking Cradle" was screened in North American theaters. The screen opened at 1,632 yuan. The box office earned 21.18 million US dollars in the first week and seven days. Sleep", but it also reached the 10,000 level.

From August 3 to August 9 in the second week, the box office of "Shaking Cradle Hand" fell by 23% the following week, and received 16.33 million US dollars.

A total of 37.51 million U.S. dollars in two weeks, relative to the production cost of 11 million U.S. dollars and the announcement budget of 6 million U.S. dollars, the project has begun to generate profit in half a month. However, "Shaking Cradle Hand" wants to achieve a box office of more than 100 million yuan, but it is somewhat difficult. The North American box office is expected to be around US$80 million.

Of course, although it did not meet expectations, a low-cost thriller film with an investment of US$11 million can earn US$80 million in the box office only in North America. Whether it is Disney or Daenerys, there is no dissatisfaction.

On August 10th, Daenerys Entertainment's New World Pictures produced "Hunter Chase 3".

This series of horror films, which opened at the end of the summer vacation, opened with a scale of 1,329 screens. The first week’s box office was $6.13 million, which is not outstanding or a failure. It is estimated that the total box office in North America is still between $15 million and $20 million. In the meantime, Daenerys Entertainment can expect profit.

However, because the two consecutive sequels have not made much breakthrough, New World Pictures plans to release subsequent sequels directly through video tape and cable TV platforms. On the one hand, this can save costs, and on the other hand, it can also free up time for other films produced by New World Pictures.

Daenerys Entertainment's "Human and Ghost Love Is Not Coming" started in the summer file. As of August 9th, 11 weeks after the release, the cumulative box office has reached 149 million US dollars, and the overall box office numbers continue to move firmly toward the 200 million US dollars mark .

"Sleep with the Enemy" cooperating with Fox, in the eighth week of its release, the cumulative box office has reached 93.81 million US dollars, steadily rushing to the 100 million yuan mark, and is expected to hit higher box office numbers.

In addition, "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles", which was released for only five weeks, has already reached a box office of 103.53 million U.S. dollars in North America, breaking 100 million dollars ahead of "Sleep with the Enemy". However, due to the continued large decline, the box office of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles has fallen to less than $5 million in a single week, and it is estimated that only less than $20 million of box office potential remains.

Regardless of overseas funds, in the first half of the year, Daenerys Entertainment alone brought Simon a net profit of more than 500 million US dollars. In order to avoid the continuous depreciation of large sums of cash in hands, Simon also started to make more money while taking into account the acquisition of MCA. Consider investing in other directions.

Speaking of which, the reason why the rich can get richer is roughly because of this.

Of course, in the second half of the year, the acquisition of MCA is still the top priority of Simon's plan.

The outbreak of the war in Kuwait caused the stock market to fall, and MCA's stock price was naturally not immune.

Only in the week from August 6th to August 10th, MCA stock price fell by 9%, and the stock price per share fell to less than $40. By the new week of August 13, the opening price of MCA stock had fallen to $39.25. , This kind of stock price decline even failed to stop the good news that Panasonic intends to acquire MCA.

Panasonic’s acquisition of MCA, although it has not been made public since Michael Ovitz’s trip to Tokyo was accidentally broken last time, this matter is no longer a secret in the eyes of many people. The news of Michael Ovitz’s private meeting with MCA board members was also accidentally exposed.

However, because of the burst of the Japanese economic bubble, Japanese corporate giants generally must first ensure that their operations will not be affected by the economic crisis.

Moreover, Sony’s non-stop payment of “tuition fees” in Hollywood over the past year in Sony’s acquisition of Columbia Pictures has aroused Panasonic’s vigilance. Although Panasonic has accumulated more than US$12 billion overseas through the accumulation of previous years, it is easy enough to complete the right. MCA’s acquisition, but the industry generally predicts that Panasonic’s acquisition of MCA will be conservative and will no longer be as lavish as Sony.