Happy Tycoon

In fact, as early as the second quarter of 2005, the real estate market in the United States had an unusual performance. In this quarter, the original hot real estate market began to cool down. The most direct manifestation is the stagnation of housing prices, and even some The state's housing prices have already seen a faint correction.

　　 Once housing prices really start to fall, it will be difficult for buyers to sell their houses or obtain financing through mortgages. And if this phenomenon continues, many borrowers in the subprime mortgage market cannot repay their loans on time, and the subprime mortgage market will inevitably break out of a crisis.

It’s just that the early boom of the U.S. real estate market blinded almost everyone. At this point in time, no one would think that the U.S. real estate market would collapse. These people included almost all large multinational banks, investment banks, insurance, and securities companies in the world. Executives.

But the collapse of the market is not based on someone’s will. Although the superficial prosperity makes these large investment institutions insist on investing large sums of money in financial derivatives to make profits, secretly, an undercurrent has begun. Faintly appeared.

First of all, a series of weird financial events occurred on Wall Street. Although no one realizes that this series of weird financial events will be linked to the collapse of the U.S. real estate at this time, this series of weird financial events is an out-and-out American real estate market. A sign of collapse!

　　 As the saying goes, "The country is about to die, there must be evildoers!" This is as common in the American real estate market.

　　 If the U.S. real estate market is regarded as a huge financial empire, then when this huge financial empire collapses, there are bound to be some unbelievable "monsters".

　　 The first evildoer that popped out was the Amaranth Fund, which was known as the "Unfading Flower".

　　 Amaranth comes out of Greek, which originally means "flowers that never die."

　　 In September 2000, a Wall Street trader who is proficient in convertible bond trading, Nicholas Maunis, established the "Flower Without Falling" Consultancy Co., Ltd., the Amaranth Fund, in the small town of Greenwich, Connecticut, USA.

　　 At the beginning of its establishment, this fund only had an initial capital of US$600 million. At the beginning, it mainly engaged in convertible bond arbitrage transactions, but also involved in some other derivative transactions. It was a multi-strategy hedge fund.

　　 By the end of 2005, the Amaranth fund had grown to 7.24 billion US dollars.

There is a "star" natural gas futures trader in the Amaranth Fund. The star trader from Canada is named Brian Hunter. He jumped from Deutsche Bank to Amaranth Fund in 2004 and worked for Deutsche Bank for three years. In 2015, he worked full-time in natural gas futures trading.

　　 This Mr. Hunter has a wealth of experience in natural gas futures trading. He has a calm and persistent trading style. In September 2005, he successfully seized the opportunity for the price of U.S. natural gas to soar due to Hurricane Katrina hitting the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. He made more than 1 billion U.S. dollars for the Amaranth Fund, and thus obtained a sum of 75 million to 100 million U.S. dollars. Year-end rewards around the dollar.

　　 can become a hunter, and lose a hunter.

　　Because of the sweetness in natural gas futures trading and the meager profit of convertible bond arbitrage trading, after entering 2006, the Amaranth Fund continued to increase its investment in natural gas futures, using about half of its assets in natural gas futures trading.

　　 In the first four months of 2006, Brian Hunter earned US$2 billion for the Amaranth Fund. Although he lost US$1 billion in May, Hunter made another US$1 billion between June and August. At the end of July, Hunter said in an interview with "great" prospects for the profitability of speculative natural gas futures: "The volatility cycle of the crude oil futures market generally takes several years, while the volatility cycle of the natural gas futures market is only a few months. !"

　　 However, it is difficult for people to calculate, and the market has no "constant winning generals"! In mid-September 2006, Hunter "betted" that the price of natural gas futures would rise and established a huge amount of "buy NYMEX natural gas futures 0703 contract and sell 0704 contract at the same time" shoulder arbitrage position, which did not develop in the direction of Hunter's judgment. , But fell sharply, therefore, Hunter's "heavy bet" suffered heavy losses!

　　 On September 18, 2006, Nicholas Maunis, the founder of Amaranth Fund, suddenly sent a letter to his investors, informing them that Amaranth Fund suffered a significant loss in energy investment due to the "unexpected" drop in natural gas prices. As the Amaranth Fund is a well-known "big player" in the NYMEX natural gas futures market, news of the Amaranth Fund's loss quickly spread throughout the Wall Street financial market that day, and caused a lot of market shock and speculation. On September 19, the "New York Times" disclosed that the Amaranth Fund had lost more than $3 billion in speculative natural gas futures!

　　 After the news of the sudden huge loss of Amaranth Fund spread, its investors, lending banks, and partners asked it to return loans and deposits, and Amaranth was forced to flatten out the loss at a discounted price.

However, due to its overweight position in natural gas futures, after a large number of liquidation orders flooded into the market, the accelerated decline in futures prices increased the loss of its original position. By the end of September 2006, the loss of the Amaranth Fund had expanded to 6.6 billion. US dollars account for more than 70% of its total assets.

　　 In the end, the Amaranth Fund surrendered and surrendered and went bankrupt and liquidated. Flowers that never die on Wall Street drifted slowly in the cold wind.

　　 Among the investors who invested in the Amaranth Fund included Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, 3M Pension Fund, San Diego National Pension Fund Association, etc., these investors suffered severe losses without exception.

　　 The second evildoer is the well-known American alternative asset management and financial consulting service organization "Blackstone Group", also known as Blackstone Group.

　　 Speaking of this matter, it still has a certain relationship with China.

　　 In 2007, the newly established China Investment Corporation began its first overseas investment. At that time, CIC bought a 9.4% stake in Blackstone for US$3 billion.

　　 At this time, Blackstone used a leveraged buyout of US$39 billion to take over EOP Real Estate, which has many commercial real estate in prime locations in major cities, from Sam Zell, known as the "Real Estate Buffett".

　　 At the same time, Sam Zell acquired the Forum Media Group, which owns the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, for $8.3 billion.

These serial transactions seem to be flawless, but no one thought that Sam Zell had just taken over the Forum Group and went bankrupt because of poor management, and Blackstone took over the top of the US real estate, so this investment in Blackstone It ended in a loss of US$2.4 billion!

　　 The emergence of the two enchantments of Amaranth Fund and Blackstone Group seems to have no inevitable connection on the surface, but don't forget that the main investors of Amaranth Fund were seriously damaged after Amaranth Fund declared bankruptcy!

Take a look at the major investors of the Amaranth Fund, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, 3M Retirement Fund, San Diego National Pension Fund Association... These investment institutions not only invested in the Amaranth Fund, they are also in the U.S. real estate market. Put a lot of money. There is also the Blackstone Group, which also invested heavily in the U.S. real estate market at that time!

　　These investment institutions that have invested heavily in speculation in the U.S. real estate market will inevitably affect their investment in the U.S. real estate market after they suffer major losses in other areas. So, at the end of the day, these seemingly unrelated investment failures led to the beginning of the collapse of the US housing market.

　　 Since the second half of 2006, the US real estate market has begun to cool down rapidly, and the subprime mortgage crisis is becoming more and more dangerous. By the beginning of 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis finally could no longer be restrained and was completely detonated!

　　 In February 2007, New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of last year. On April 2, New Century Financial declared bankruptcy due to its inability to repay up to $17.4 billion in debt.

In March 2007, HSBC Holdings announced its results and added an additional reserve of US$7 billion for subprime housing loans in the United States, a total of US$10.573 billion, an increase of 33.6%; the news came out and the stock market fell sharply on that day, among which the Hang Seng Index It fell by 777 points, or 4%.

On August 2, 2007, the German Industrial Bank announced a profit warning. Later, it was estimated that there was a loss of 8.2 billion euros, because one of its subsidiaries was a "Rhineland Fund" with a scale of 12.7 billion euros and the bank itself participated in a small amount of US real estate projects. The mortgage loan market business suffered huge losses. The Bundesbank convened national banks to discuss a package plan to rescue the German Industrial Bank.

　　 The tenth largest mortgage lending institution in the United States, the American Housing Mortgage Investment Corporation, formally filed for bankruptcy protection in the court on August 6, 2007, becoming another large mortgage lending institution that filed for bankruptcy in the United States after New Century Financial Corporation.

　　 On August 8, 2007, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, announced the closure of two of its funds ~www.readwn.com~ The reason was also due to the subprime mortgage crisis.

　　 On August 9, 2007, BNP Paribas, the largest bank in France, announced the freezing of three of its funds, which also suffered huge losses because of its investment in US subprime bonds. This move caused European stock markets to tumble.

　　 On August 13, 2007, the Mizuho Group, the parent company of Mizuho Bank, Japan’s second largest bank, announced a loss of 600 million yen related to US subprime mortgages. Japanese and Korean banks have already suffered losses due to the US subprime mortgage storm. According to estimates by UBS Securities Japan, the nine major Japanese banks hold more than one trillion yen in U.S. subprime mortgage-backed securities.

Later, Citigroup also announced that the loss caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in July 2007 reached 700 million U.S. dollars, which eventually caused Citibank’s stock price to fall from 23 U.S. dollars per share to 3 U.S. dollars per share in just six months. Reduced by 90%...

　　 A series of bad news smashed the United States and the entire world. The US subprime mortgage crisis inevitably evolved into a global financial crisis.

　　 The two houses in the United States were managed by the U.S. government, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the U.S., was acquired by **** for 236 million U.S. dollars, Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America, and Lehman Brothers died completely...

　　Especially the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which was worth as much as 700 billion US dollars at the time, directly detonated the global economic crisis! ...

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