Happy Tycoon

Chapter 862: David's analysis

The reason why Yang Jing didn't intervene in Apple in the 1980s was because he was waiting for this opportunity.

In fact, from the establishment of Apple until later generations, this company became the world's first company with a market value of more than one trillion dollars. The best time to intervene in this company is to obtain angel round investment at the beginning of the company's establishment, and the other It was the second half of 1996.

However, the strength of Joe’s gang is a well-known thing. Even on April 1, 1976, the 21-year-old hippie and HP engineer Steve Wozniak and Ron Wayne, who used to do slot machine business, created Apple together. At the time, he never thought about financing the angel round.

At the beginning of his business, Mr. Qiao attached great importance to his shares, not to mention that when he was driven out of Apple and wandered outside for more than ten years, he saw the true blood and ruthlessness of capital. After returning to Apple again, he did not. Willing to introduce the capital of Wall Street to Apple.

In fact, if he hadn't been kicked out of Apple, but had been the boss of Apple, with his business genius and advanced design philosophy, perhaps there would not be a computer brand like Dell.

Failure is not terrible, but the terrible thing is that I don’t know how to work hard again!

Jobs is obviously not such a person. Lisa database and AppleIie may have really caused a lot of losses to Apple, but if Apple shareholders can insist on believing in this genius, then Jobs will never disappoint those who believe in him. Yes, just like those things he did after returning to Apple.

To describe Jobs in a relatively vulgar word, this guy is like a flawless diamond, even if it has been covered in dust, his bright light cannot be suppressed after all.

If Apple’s shareholders were able to trust Joe’s gangster more, maybe Joe’s gang will launch personal PCs and laptops with better appearance and performance in the 1980s, thus once again becoming the industry leader. Who can tell such things clearly? But judging from the performance of Qiao Gangzhu in the future, if he hadn't left Apple in the first place, then it is very likely that such a thing would have been done.

At that time, what Dell, what HP, even IBM, are extremely likely to be suppressed by Apple in terms of personal PCs.

But that is all hypothesis. If you want to get involved with Apple at the least cost, the second half of 1996 is the best time.

Yang Jing entrusted Henry to do this. With Henry's talents in this aspect, he would definitely be able to do this without fail.

At this precarious time, the change of equity in the hands of more than a dozen or dozens of small shareholders of Apple will definitely not attract the attention of others.

After instructing Henry, Yang Jing called David Anderson in again.

"David, what do you think of the recent economic situation in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea?" Yang Jing personally poured David a cup of coffee, and then sat opposite David.

At this time, David Anderson is also an old man in his sixties. Perhaps his age has increased, and the number of successes in the past ten years has been too much. At this time, his IQ is no longer visible at all. High and low emotional intelligence, now David Anderson looks like a very wise financial tycoon.

Yang Jing still remembers the first time he saw David more than ten years ago. At that time, David, who was forty-five-six-year-old, looked like a very old-fashioned guy. It is said that David, who has black ancestry, should be more lively, but in fact, the opposite is true.

In the subsequent operations, although David showed unparalleled investment genius, he was really not that good in the world. Had it not been for Yang Jing, old Mike and Henry to defend him, maybe he would have left the KY investment fund a long time ago.

However, the environment can change a person's character, this sentence is not nonsense, but it does have a certain truth. At least this sentence is vividly reflected in David's body.

As David began to be in charge of Pacific Capital and led Pacific Capital to kill all parties in the Japanese market, David at this time has really changed a lot.

"Thank you." David first thanked him, and then asked: "Boss, I don't know what you are asking about? If you say everything to you, I'm afraid we will say it all night. Endless."

Yang Jing smiled and waved his hand, "David, here is the two of us, just say whatever you think of it. In fact, I also have some judgments about the recent economic situation in Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, so I want to hear it. Listen to your opinion so that I can make the final decision."

David's IQ is very high, and Yang Jing even suspects that this guy's IQ is higher than himself. Therefore, when he heard Yang Jing's words, he immediately asked in surprise: "Boss, are you planning to do something to Southeast Asia?"

"Yeah." Yang Jing nodded, "In the past two years, I have discovered some huge financial loopholes through researching the development of Southeast Asian countries. I think that if I can find these loopholes, then the guys on Wall Street will surely find them too. So, I’d like to ask your opinion. If the two of us agree, then we can make a fortune in Southeast Asia. Well, maybe we can cut a large piece of meat from Japan and South Korea.”

David rubbed his hands in excitement, "Boss, in fact, you have something wrong. We are actually in the category of the Wall Street guys. Look, where we sit now, although it's a little bit away from Wall Street. Although the KY investment fund is now deeply hidden under the water, we are truly Wall Street giants!"

Yang Jing said this for a moment, and then shook his head with a wry smile.

This guy David is right. In 1996, there were about seven trillion U.S. dollars in international hot money in the world, but the funds owned by KY investment funds accounted for one-tenth of this huge international hot money. Many, it is definitely the biggest crocodile on Wall Street!

"BOSS, in fact, my judgment is the same as yours. Although several countries in Southeast Asia have developed rapidly in the past few years, there are many loopholes in them. Don’t look at the four little dragons in East Asia now, but they are all On the surface of the prosperity, the Southeast Asian countries represented by the so-called four little dragons have fatal loopholes in themselves and their domestic financial systems."

After a pause, David began to talk freely.

"In fact, it is not just Southeast Asian countries. Almost all countries in East Asia, except China, have loopholes of one kind or another. This is caused by the post-war Asian economic formation. Such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan and South Korea, Wandao, Hong Kong Island. Other countries and regions are all export-oriented economies, and they have a lot of dependence on the world market. As long as the Asian economy fluctuates, there will inevitably be a situation that affects the whole body."

"First of all, the'export substitution' model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. The so-called four dragons in Asia are typical representatives of this economic model. However, this model also has three shortcomings: At a certain stage of economic development, production costs will increase and exports will be suppressed, causing imbalances in the balance of payments of these countries. Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form a mutual relationship between them. Squeeze; Third, the step-by-step progress of products is a prerequisite for continuing to implement export substitution. Only relying on the cheap advantage of resources cannot maintain competitiveness. After achieving rapid growth, these Asian countries have not solved the above problems."

"Moreover, these countries are mostly developing countries, and maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. It is just that when the conditions for high-speed growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries have to turn to Relying on foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, some Asian countries have not had the ability to repay debts since the previous two years. In Southeast Asian countries, the real estate bubble has only been exchanged for bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, it is too easy for large companies to obtain funds from banks, resulting in a situation where non-performing assets will immediately swell once the company's condition is poor. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. This is the high overdraft economy. Growth and expansion of non-performing assets! This is an extremely dangerous thing!"

"On the contrary, the economic and market systems of these countries are immature. On the one hand, the government has excessively intervened in the allocation of resources, especially in the loan investment and projects of the financial system; on the other hand, the financial system, especially the regulatory system, is imperfect. This will cause those dangers to expand further and eventually become the last straw that can crush the camel."

Once David Anderson enters his own mode, it will definitely hit the nail on the head.

Yang Jing nodded slightly and said, "David, then do you mean that there are indeed some huge signs of crisis hidden in Southeast Asian countries?"

"Yes, not only I can see it, but as you said just now, many people on Wall Street can see it."

David took a sip of coffee to moisturize his throat, and then said: "For example, when I was having dinner with Charles Roberts of Morgan Stanley two months ago, he also mentioned this. He said Among Southeast Asian countries, the current situation in Thailand is the most dangerous. Countries like Thailand, their foreign exchange policies are simply playing with fire. In order to attract foreign investment, these countries maintain a fixed exchange rate while maintaining a fixed exchange rate. Expanding financial liberalization is basically two contradictory policies. Because in order to maintain their domestic fixed exchange rate system, these countries will inevitably use foreign exchange reserves to make up their deficits for a long time, which will inevitably lead to an increase in foreign debt. Under the circumstances, these countries will inevitably have excessive short-term and medium-term debts. In this case, once foreign capital outflow exceeds foreign capital inflow, and the country’s foreign exchange reserves are not enough to make up for its shortcomings, then the country’s currency depreciation will be It's inevitable."

"Charles and I have the same judgment. Thailand is a typical representative of such contradictory financial policies. Thailand's own financial system is imperfect, but this country actually cancelled it in 1992 before its financial system was straightened out. The control of the capital market ~www.readwn.com~ makes the flow of short-term funds unimpeded, and a large amount of international hot money can take the opportunity to flood into Thailand."

"The entry of a huge amount of international hot money into the Thai financial market seems to make Thailand’s economy immediately prosperous, but it also planted a big guy comparable to a nuclear bomb. Once the time is right, then this one will be buried in The nuclear bomb in Thailand’s financial sector will inevitably be detonated. At that time, it will be Thailand’s financial system that will be killed, and the international hot money will slowly want to spend a gluttonous feast!"

The Charles Roberts Yang Jing mentioned by David also knew that this guy had also worked at Goldman Sachs before and had a very good personal relationship with David. It was only later that this guy quit from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley, but the two still maintained a very good friendship. And David is also going to dig Charles over, and Yang Jing also agrees to this matter.

"Well, David, your judgment is almost the same as mine. In other words, both of us, including Charles, think that a financial crisis is about to break out in Southeast Asian countries. So David, are you sure that this time? Kill the Quartet again in the crisis?"

"Haha, BOSS, this is my favorite job! The Japanese market has become a stagnant pool, and it can no longer excite me. My sword is already hungry. I am thirsty..." Happy Tycoon

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