2050 superpower

Chapter 35 Who Will Rule the World (2)
Tensions in Asia, provoked by the United States, are now intensifying.First of all, with the backing of the United States, Japan launched an attack on the Diaoyu Islands belonging to China. Beginning in 2010, Japan began to take practical actions from claiming sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands in words.The Chinese fishing boats working normally in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands were hit, the Chinese fishermen were detained, and finally the Chinese fishermen were adjudicated according to Japanese law.The United States entered the Yellow Sea under the pretext of US-South Korea military exercises, and the sword went to the door of China. The next step is to hold joint military exercises with Vietnam and enter the South China Sea.The United States is no longer satisfied with building an island chain to blockade China, but is dancing swords close to it.The U.S. military is showing off its force at sea to China, and it is indirectly using India to contain China.

Both India and China are members of the "BRIC" and should have united to achieve great things together, but India has always been concerned about its disastrous defeat in the war with China in the 20s.At the same time, in order to realize the dream of a greater India, India always engages in territorial disputes with China, Pakistan and other countries arbitrarily, and ignores China's goodwill and insists on going its own way.After the Sino-Indian border has maintained stability for a long period of time, India has begun to repeat its past plots.Therefore, the biggest "enemies" of the "BRIC countries" come from within, because this hostile state is harmful to the "BRIC countries" without any benefit.

Contradictions and conflicts between countries can be resolved in the end, no matter by peaceful means, force, or other coercive means, while domestic problems are not so easy to deal with.

India is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country. Although it has entered the ranks of democratic countries, its religion still has a great influence on politics.Due to irreconcilable religious conflicts, Pakistan became independent from India, but the territorial issue remained unresolved. For this reason, the two sides fought three wars and are still in a military confrontation.Although Pakistan became independent from India, religious contradictions still exist in India and have become the main factor of domestic turmoil; at the same time, forces demanding independence and separation still exist in India and have become one of the root causes of frequent domestic violent conflicts one.The polarization between the rich and the poor in India is very serious, and the reasons for the polarization of the rich and the poor are very complicated. Historical issues, social issues, religious issues, racial issues and other factors are intertwined and entangled, which cannot be resolved at all.This economic inequality is mixed with various complicated international factors, which has become a breeding ground for terrorism.

The situation in Russia is not optimistic either. On March 2010, 3, two subway stations in the center of Moscow, the Russian capital, exploded on the 29th, killing more than 29 people and injuring dozens.

The two perpetrators of the bombing were women, both from the Republic of Dagestan.Doku Umarov, the leader of the illegal armed organization in Chechnya, claimed responsibility for the Moscow subway bombing, saying it was revenge for the killing of 18 militants and 4 civilians by Russian special forces.Russian President Vladimir Putin also believes that the attack in the Dagestan region and the bombing of the Moscow subway may be the work of the same group, both of which are related to Chechnya.Russia implements a federal system, and both Chechnya and Dagestan are part of Russia and exercise self-government.

In 1991, President Dudayev of the Republic of Chechnya issued a declaration of independence, intending to separate from Russia, which Russia naturally disagreed with. In 1994, Russian President Boris Yeltsin sent troops to attack Chechnya, and Chechnya resisted fiercely. Until 1999, there were two Chechen wars.The unrest caused by Russia's crackdown on separatists in Chechnya has also spilled over into neighboring Dagestan, leading to increased violence.

Among the "BRIC countries", Brazil's domestic situation is fairly stable, mainly due to the political line struggle at the top of the government, but they are still within the normal range, but the potential political crisis caused by it cannot be ignored. In December 2003, Helena and several other members of Congress were expelled from the Labor Party for opposing the Lula government's social welfare reform plan.The incident sparked a political crisis between the Labor Party and the Brazilian government.Many people in the labor parties across the country believe that Lula violated the principles of political pluralism and democracy, and are very dissatisfied. Many people have announced their separation from the labor party and reorganized the new left party.[email protected]The New Left established the Socialist and Liberal Party, of which Helena became the chairman and was nominated as the presidential candidate in the 2006 general election.In addition, Brazil was once known as the country with the most prison riots in the world. The rampant gangs once paralyzed the society in the Sao Paulo area.But in general, they are all social security issues, which have nothing to do with the overall situation of political stability.

In short, the enemies of the "BRIC countries" have both foreign and internal troubles, and the most dangerous enemy is themselves.

§§§Section III Choice of the United States
The characteristic of the US international strategic choice is aggression, the pursuit of an unequal dominant position, and taking it as a career, this is the political philosophy of the US.The actions of the United States in the world fully reflect this hegemonic thinking: as long as any country wants to be equal to the United States, then this country is the enemy of the United States.The human rights of the United States are hypocritical.

Robert Arter, a researcher at the Olin Institute for International Strategic Studies at Harvard University in the United States, once wrote a book called "U.S. Grand Strategy". He summarized the strategic choices of the United States into eight types.

(1) Hegemony strategy: Its goal is to rule the world and transform other countries through the use of force in an imperialist manner.

(2) Global Collective Security Strategy: It aims to ensure that all parts of the world are in a state of peace that the United States needs.

(3) Regional Collective Security Strategy: It aims to ensure the control of the United States over various regions of the world.

(4) Cooperative security strategy: reduce the occurrence of wars by limiting the military strength of other countries.

(5) Containment strategy: strategically encircle a country that the United States considers to be "aggressive".

(6) Isolationist strategy: It advocates extending the power of the United States to the coasts of other countries and attacking any countries that may rise.

(7) Offshore Balancing Strategy: Ensure unconstrained U.S. action and defeat any rising power.

(8) Selective intervention strategy: selectively intervene in conflicts and complete some key tasks with limited resources and existing capabilities.

Arter's point of view, except for those high-sounding "peace" words, is indeed consistent with the behavior of the United States in the world.The reason why it is called the high-sounding word "peace" is because the actions of the United States based on this strategic choice have all brought turmoil and disasters to countries and regions in the world.

According to this strategic choice of the United States, all countries in the world may be enemies of the United States.For example, the European Union, which is "brotherly" to the United States, may also become its enemy; but because the European Union cannot challenge the United States militarily, its internal political cohesion is declining, and it is difficult to do anything, so the United States does not regard the European Union as a real enemy. treat.If the EU's military power reaches a level that can compete with the United States, no matter whether the EU has anti-American ideas or not, it will be the enemy of the United States.

For Russia, although he challenges the hegemony of the United States, he does not have such a large economic strength, so the United States does not care, so Russia is just an enemy stored by the United States. When the United States frees up its hands, it will definitely exert great pressure on Russia.China is different. Due to its rapid economic development, compared with other countries in the world, its rapid rise has made the United States feel threatened, so China has become the real enemy of the United States.The United States returned to the Sea of ​​Japan and the Yellow Sea from Iraq to contain China, break China's will, and make China submit to the United States.

The United States is a paper tiger that can bite people. In the "World War II", the United States and other allies did their best to defeat Germany. In addition, in the wars that the United States launched in the future, it always relied on its arrogance to "scare its opponents to death" And the victories achieved, such as the Kosovo war and the Iraq war, are like this.As long as the opponent would rather die than surrender, the essence of the "paper tiger" of the United States will be revealed, and the United States will definitely lose in the end, such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War.

Creating foreign "threats" out of nothing is a feature of the US strategic choice.American blood comes from Western culture.In Western culture, human nature is considered to be "inherently evil", so there is the theory of original sin.Based on this understanding of human nature, Westerners hold a skeptical attitude towards whether the international society can make progress, or more precisely, whether the national society can achieve harmonious development.Out of this mentality, the United States tends to emphasize the conflict and violence of international relations.Therefore, the United States "digging" threats and enemies in every corner of the world is a daily task of American politicians and policymakers, and it is also a strategic choice of the United States.

The foreign policy of the United States is always against people and things, and it is used according to its own needs. For example, on the nuclear issue, India will not pose a threat to the United States, and it has close contacts with the United States. The United States does not accuse India of possessing nuclear weapons.The reason why the United States is so tolerant towards India is that the appropriate expansion of India's military strength will help contain China.Israel is the same.The United States will not prevent Israel from obtaining nuclear materials, nor does it care about its possession of nuclear weapons, because Israel's moderately strong military strength can contain the Islamic countries in the Gulf.The United States can allow India and Israel to possess nuclear weapons, but it will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear materials, let alone manufacture nuclear weapons, because Iran does not listen to the words of the United States and is against the United States.Not to mention North Korea, which has always been an enemy of the United States, absolutely does not want North Korea to possess nuclear weapons.

In order to find threats and construct threats, the United States has invented many new vocabulary and new theories to establish threat targets.Such as "McCarthy Incident".

After the end of World War II, in order to fight against the Soviet Union, eradicate communist ideology, and attack progressive forces, the United States set off an anti-communist and xenophobic movement based on the theory of "McCarthyism" from the late 20s to the early 40s, involving American politics , education and culture at all levels.

In addition, the United States has invented and created terms such as "strategic mineral and resource dependence theory", "rogue state" and "axis of evil".

Based on these theories and vocabulary, the United States successfully created a confrontation between the Western world and the "Soviet Empire".In Latin America, the United States claimed that the emergence of revolutionary movements in the region posed a serious "threat" to the United States and its national security, so the President of the United States declared that if the United States did not destroy the Sandinista Liberation Front of Nicaragua in Latin America, this force would be destroyed. It would pass through Mexico and invade the United States "in just a two-day journey."

The alarmist talk of the U.S. government made the U.S. really feel uneasy. With the "popular" foundation, the U.S. government began to boldly intervene in Latin American affairs.After the end of the Cold War, the world should have been peaceful, but the strategic choice of the United States does not allow the existence of a peaceful world.Without the existence of the Soviet Union, the United States created "rogue countries" and "axis of evil" countries in a new way, so that peace would return to its mother's womb before it came to the world.

The United States is pursuing inequality. This kind of inequality can only mean that the United States is at an advantage while other countries are at a disadvantage.For example about nuclear weapons.On the one hand, the U.S. government uses "weapons of mass destruction" and "nuclear proliferation" extensively in its military terms; on the other hand, the U.S. government points the source of the "nuclear threat" to small and medium-sized countries such as Iran and North Korea.

Making such a choice in world politics, what should the United States do economically?It is well known that the U.S. economy is slipping further into recession.Although the United States has introduced a series of rescue plans, ranging from the $8000 billion troubled asset rescue to the trillions of dollars of credit provided by the Federal Reserve, none of them can contain the continuation of the economic recession.Faced with this situation, on August 2010, 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said in a speech in Wyoming that the U.S. economy is more fragile than expected, and further measures should be taken to ensure the recovery of the U.S. economy if necessary .American economist Stiglitz also said: "There are many signs that we will fall into a Japanese-style economic recession... It is really hard to imagine what kind of disaster we will face in the future."

Since the 20s, for more than ten years, the growth of the world economy has been driven by the huge consumption in the domestic market of the United States. In particular, the prosperity of the two bubble economies of the Internet and real estate in the United States has brought a great leap forward to the world economy.But the bubbles of the Internet economy and the real estate economy were blown too much, overdrafting both the future and the present of the U.S. economy.No matter what, as long as it is a bubble, there will always be a day when it bursts.With the outbreak of the subprime mortgage financial crisis, the bubble finally burst, real estate sales were suspended, IT stock prices plummeted, and domestic purchasing power in the United States declined, making market investors uneasy.As US investors lost confidence in real estate and IT stocks, they turned to government bonds.

Facing the economic recession in the United States, Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, said: "Recession is a cure for economic diseases, but politicians don't think so. They will continue to stimulate the economy until it dies of excessive manipulation." American economist Bruce Bartlett said: "We have reached an impasse and there is no substantial progress." Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said that the Fed is ready to take all measures to adopt "unconventional" monetary policy if necessary Support a slowing economic recovery, but each option has pros and cons.

At the beginning of 2009, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $8190 billion economic stimulus package.In this huge economic stimulus plan, US$5440 billion is used to invest in the renovation and construction of public infrastructure such as education, medical care, roads and bridges. It also includes investment in new energy and environmental protection and green industries, and another US$2750 billion is used for tax rebates.Although this plan has increased the employment rate in the United States and promoted the recovery of related industries, it is difficult to completely reverse the growing economic crisis in the United States.The United States now faces many difficult problems to solve: where does the huge government investment fund come from?Should we continue to issue treasury bonds on a large scale, or issue large-scale US dollars?In the context of the expanding global financial crisis, will the continued large-scale issuance of US dollar bonds and currencies trigger a new round of global financial crisis?How to deal with the relationship between short-term economic difficulties and long-term economic difficulties?How to deal with the relationship between traditional advantageous industries and future innovative industries?How to deal with the relationship between the interests of capital groups and the interests of all the people?How to improve the confidence of American companies and the American people in the US economy?If these problems cannot be resolved well, the United States, the world's only super-hegemonic country, will fall from within.

Faced with this dilemma, the United States has many options.

First, the United States is unwilling to choose to develop the industrial economy.Subconsciously, the United States will resist using industry to revitalize the economy. Even if it chooses, it is hard to find new economic growth points.

Second, choose to continue issuing bonds, which seems to be an inevitable choice at present.In the United States, there are too many bankruptcies that need to be rescued, and there are too many black holes of funds that need to be filled. From Bush to Obama, the US government has released a nearly trillion-dollar rescue plan, and the source of funds can only be the issuance of national debt.But now all countries are busy saving their own fires. Faced with the gloomy economic prospects of the United States, the desire to buy US treasury bonds is getting smaller and smaller.

Third, start the money printing machine, but printing money may break through the bottom line of American credit in the economy. Once it gets out of control, it will be a greater disaster of the century.

Fourth, launch a financial war to make up for the huge financial black hole in the United States, but if the international finance is in chaos, the United States will have no good fruit to eat.

Fifth, launch an armed war, but this is the hole card that the United States uses as a last resort.

Sixth, wait patiently, relying on the cyclicality of the economy, and wait for the lost economy to fall to the ground like a ball and bounce back naturally.

The United States has lost its way in the "forest" of choices, and it seems dissatisfied with any choice.

(End of this chapter)