2050 superpower

Chapter 28: The Gradually Aging Europe (4)
As mentioned earlier, some countries in the EU have different interests and divergent interests; the three major countries, Britain, France and Germany, are also constantly struggling with how to build Europe.France claims to be a political and populous country in the European Union to compete for the dominance of European integration; Germany uses its strong economic strength to control the process of European integration; In the battle for power, it maintained its status as the long-gone British Empire and was unwilling to give up its sovereignty, so it stayed out of the eurozone.In short, in the European Union, the small countries try their best to pursue their own interests, while the big countries are intriguing and have many conflicts, which have never existed so far.See the possibility of compromise.

Where is the future of the EU?This is the answer that all EU member states are dying to know.In any case, if Europe wants to recover, it must take the road of European integration. Only in this way can all countries coexist and become a dense forest in the world.The development of the new Europe is clear: first, from economic integration to political integration; second, from Western European integration to greater European integration; Self-defense development.Although the context is clear, it is very difficult to achieve the intended goal.

First of all, with the development of the new European integration to a certain extent, the contradiction between the national sovereignty and the supranational sovereignty of the EU has emerged between the member states and the EU. The issue of national sovereignty is an insurmountable problem.Some member states want to obtain the benefits of integration without giving up their national sovereignty. This is a major challenge for the EU to deepen reforms of its systems, policies, and structures.

Secondly, the implementation of the Greater Europe Plan requires more countries to join the EU, but the political and economic conditions of the countries applying for membership may not necessarily meet the requirements of the EU.Whether it is eastward expansion or southward expansion, it will involve the adjustment of the EU's internal system and policies, and the old member states in the EU are unwilling to reduce their own interests, so internal quarrels are inevitable.

Thirdly, the development of greater European integration will directly affect the relationship of the Atlantic Alliance.The Atlantic Alliance refers to the "Atlantic Alliance Policy" of the United States toward Western Europe formed from the winter of 1946 to the spring of 1947.In this policy, the United States proposed to support the revival and unity of Western Europe, but the condition was that Western Europe would cooperate closely with the United States.The intention of the United States is to create a close alliance in Western Europe that can be consistent with the United States on military issues and other important issues.The establishment of Greater Europe is bound to conflict with the Atlantic Alliance, and this conflict has already materialized.European countries, for example, disagree with the United States over its national missile defense system and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.How to coordinate the relationship between Europe and the United States is a major challenge for the new Europe.

Finally, the defense and security issue of the new Europe is the EU's biggest heart disease. If it is to be completely cured, it will inevitably turn against the United States.The United States has relied on NATO as the "emperor" to convince some small countries in Eastern Europe to allow the US missile defense system to settle in their countries, and has warned the EU not to "go too far" on the establishment of a rapid response force.With the current military capabilities of the European Union, it does not have the guts to turn against the United States. It can only bear the humiliation and swallow its teeth.

The number of EU member states has increased from the initial 6 to today's 27. With the continuous expansion of the scale, the reform of the EU mechanism is imperative.In order to respect the sovereignty of each member state, the "Lisbon Treaty" reserves many rights for member states.Nevertheless, the purpose of the Treaty of Lisbon is to strengthen the EU's supranational character.Therefore, the contradictions between the member states and the EU cannot be resolved by the Treaty of Lisbon.

Many Western scholars, especially economists, generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards the development of Europe.They believe that the European welfare state model has dragged down the development of Europe and made Europe more and more marginalized in international affairs.The real situation in Europe is indeed like what these scholars said. Europe's international influence is gradually shrinking, and the future development may be the same.

Maybe Europe is really old. After the end of World War II, the first-generation leaders of France and Germany, Charles de Gaulle and Adenauer, although they recognized the reality that the United States was in the leading position in the West, they both wanted to separate from the United States and build Europe into a world with global influence. A strong and independent force; and the current leaders, whether it is Merkel or Sarkozy, have lost this ambition.At the same time, the European Union itself is not as ambitious as it was when it was first established.In this regard, Professor Jean Monnet of Aalborg University in Denmark said: "De Gaulle wanted to build a strong Europe. Now that the EU member states are divided, our British friends are still living in fantasy. They maintain a special partnership with the United States. Relationship. Prime Minister Brown tried bilateral talks with President Obama a few months ago, which proves that the EU is likely to split into two blocs, with one bloc resting on its laurels (eg UK, Denmark, Poland, Sweden, etc.) , another group is more ambitious and hopes to strengthen the voice of the EU in the world (such as France and Germany).” Yes, the EU has changed from being dominated by major powers at the beginning to now being democratically dominated by a group of countries, and its status has declined. It is certain that the crisis of its division is no longer just a warning.Fortunately, although France and Germany's status in the EU has decreased compared with the past, it has only decreased, not disappeared.For very "pragmatic" countries such as Britain, Italy, Spain and Poland, France and Germany still have certain influence and restrictive power.

Now that Europe has chosen the path of integration, it has to stick to it. Giving up halfway will make Europe repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union.The United States certainly wants European integration to disintegrate.We must stick to the road of integration, no matter how many difficulties we have, we must overcome them, so that the construction of the EU will continue to deepen and develop.However, some people in the EU are opposed to deepening, and even more against expanding.In this state of disagreement, the two wheels of EU integration have been stuck, and the long-awaited "constitution" has been repeatedly postponed.

Now countries in the Balkan Peninsula, Ukraine, Georgia and other Commonwealth of Independent States countries and even Turkey have all applied to join the EU, but the EU has refused because it is unable to absorb them.

The main reason why the constitutional issue of the EU has been shelved is that the direction of the EU is not clear.It is the dream of Europeans to end division, unify Europe, and enjoy eternal peace.Because of this dream, they have gone through the coal and steel joint venture, the economic community, the unified market, and the economic and monetary union.Just when the development trend was moving in the expected direction, on March 2008, 3, the European Parliament passed the report "Against the Continuing Enlargement of the European Union" with a high vote, and the Greater Europe project came to an abrupt end.According to this report, there is a general sense of panic among EU citizens, who worry that the expansion of the EU will bring about problems such as security, immigration, unemployment, and organized crime; the EU should consider its own expansion from its own "absorptive capacity" and determine the nature and geographical boundaries of the European Union.

The European Union has begun to "Mr. Ye loves dragons".The purpose of formulating the EU constitution is to "deepen" the EU's operating mechanism to meet the needs of the "enlargement". However, due to the publication of the report "Against the Continued Enlargement of the EU", the purpose of the EU constitution has been shattered, making it difficult to ratify the "constitution" , hanging in the air forever, unable to land.

Faced with such an embarrassing predicament, the "troika" of Europe, confused by many domestic problems, is simply unable to take into account the many existing problems in the EU.As a locomotive, Germany had no choice but to form a coalition government because the Coalition Party (CDU and CSU) and the Social Democratic Party failed to obtain a sufficient majority in the general election, which caused great changes in Germany's foreign policy; The social unrest, student unrest, and labor unrest in China have no time for others; while the UK is still the same, its attitude is always life-or-death, and it does not fulfill its obligations as a major country.In fact, only Germany and France are the core of promoting the development of Europe, but this core is also full of differences.Germany advocates continuing to advance the ratification process of the EU constitutional treaty so that it can be put into practice; France believes that it is impossible for him to fully accept all the treaties due to public sentiment.Germany advocates continuing to expand the EU organization and allowing new applicant countries to join; France believes that the current plight of the EU is caused by accelerating the expansion of new members.In terms of foreign relations, the EU is also vacillating.After Merkel came to power, she changed Germany's original intention of being "pro-Russian and alienating the United States" and began to improve relations with the United States. On major international issues, she emphasized coordination and cooperation with the United States, which disintegrated the established Franco-German-Russian united front.Seeing that Germany has changed its direction, France has also begun to work hard to ease the tension with the United States, but the independence and autonomy it emphasizes have not changed.In terms of economy, Germany tends to adopt more free market economic measures, while France, starting from defending its own economic interests, adheres to its traditional development model and adopts increasingly obvious national protectionist policies.

In such a situation where differences are emerging, France and Germany, as the "locomotives" of Europe, have greatly weakened their influence in the process of jointly promoting the construction of European integration.

The prospect of European integration is worrisome. Where is the future of the EU?This future looks like chaos now.The European Union is in confusion and hesitation, the awareness of unity and self-improvement is weakening, and the integration process is not standing still.It is really difficult to talk about the future of the EU at this time.Europe has only the present and no future.

(End of this chapter)