2050 superpower

Chapter 26: The Gradually Aging Europe (2)
Greece originally thought that after joining the euro zone, inflationary pressures could be diluted by other euro zone countries, and that there would be no exchange rate risks in trade and capital flows with other countries in the euro zone, and its export trade would be guaranteed to a certain extent.But an economic crisis shattered this dream, and at the same time shattered other European countries that shared the same dream as Greece.After the debt crisis in Greece and other countries, the European Union learned from the painful experience and conducted a major inspection of its own management system.The result of the inspection is that the rigid eurozone system only takes inflation as the sole goal of monetary policy, without fully taking into account the different national conditions of various countries, so that there is a contradiction between fiscal policy and rigid monetary policy, while other policies There is a lack of running-in and consistency between them, and the supervision is not in place.

Regardless of how the EU reviews, the Greek debt crisis has already occurred.European countries joined the EU to gain benefits, not to be "responsible".As soon as this incident happened, there was chaos in the EU, and mutual accusations were unavoidable, but how to rescue Greece has become the focus of debate among countries.From the perspective of the donor country, no country is willing to use the wealth accumulated by its people to aid those lazy and uncreative countries with extremely low returns.If Greece is not aided, the credibility and significance of the EU will be greatly reduced.After discussions among the EU member states, a rescue mechanism agreement with a total of 7500 billion euros was reached at the meeting of the finance ministers of the EU member states.The funding source of this rescue mechanism consists of three parts: the first part, 4400 billion euros will be shared by the euro zone countries according to the agreement reached, for a period of three years; the second part, 600 billion euros will be based on the relevant provisions of the EU's "Lisbon Treaty" , raised by the European Commission from the financial market; the third part, the International Monetary Fund provides 2500 billion euros.The rescue plan is only used to temporarily ease the Greek debt crisis, so that the debt crisis will not continue to worsen in the short term.

The Greek debt crisis is only part of the European debt crisis, and four other countries are on the alert.At this time, China stepped in to help.By increasing its holdings of Spanish government bonds and exporting solar photovoltaic panels to Spain, China has activated the Spanish domestic market and eased its potential crisis.In this debt crisis, the EU has seen China's role as a pillar of the world economy.In this regard, Zapatero said: "Now we are in the stage of economic growth recovery and production model reform. Asia and China will play a pillar role in our future economic growth." At the same time, he also said: "Welcome to China's growth." Holding Spanish government bonds." The crisis eased, and EU members regained confidence in the euro.Zapatero said: "The euro is a powerful currency, and it was created to circulate forever; and the European Union, which accounts for a quarter of the world's GDPI, knows how to get out of the crisis. We have this wisdom and talent." In 4, Zapatero came to China to participate in the Shanghai World Expo. This is his third visit to China.Seeing the great progress China has made with his own eyes, Zapatero is full of admiration for China's economic growth rate and China's future development potential. He said: "When any country evaluates international economic development, it is very Clearly, this century is the century of China, from a European point of view, and from a Spanish point of view."

In Europe, it is not only the debt crisis that is bad, but the economic situation of its core countries is even more worrying.During and after the debt crisis, divergence among eurozone economies has widened, with some economies already in trouble.Among the worst-performing major economies were the Netherlands, Italy and Germany.The Netherlands has had moments of strong growth, at least for a while, compared to the other two countries, while Germany and Italy have never had a spark of growth.The main problem in Germany is insufficient domestic demand. As long as domestic demand can grow again, the economy will improve.The challenges facing Italy are far more serious, with little hope in sight.What the Eurozone desires most now is to revive the economy, which is also the hope of the whole world.The world needs Europe to reign supreme, and no one would hate a prosperous Europe.

§§§Section [-] The sinking of Europe is a historical necessity
Europe is a region well known to the world because it was the beginning of modern society.Whether you like it or not, whether you hate it or not, it represents a model of human cultural progress.Even America, a country with a Statue of Liberty, no matter how free it is, has an umbilical cord to Europe.It can be said that Europe has both the most barbaric things in the world and the most civilized things in the world. It is the combination of these two extremes. When we look at Europe with our current eyes, we always feel a little weird.This is like Germany, the perpetrator of the First World War and the Second World War, has now become a beautiful model, but how long this model can last is a worrying issue.It can be said that Europe has dominated the world for nearly 200 years, but now it has begun to "diving".

Since the end of the Cold War, the European Union has begun to condense more together, trying to realize the ideal of a greater Europe.

But what makes people feel paradoxical is that the more united the EU is, the more it looks like a mess of sand.The world is gratified when France and Germany smile away their grievances, overcome historical grievances, and hold hands together.However, the conflicts within the EU have not been peaceful due to the reconciliation between France and Germany, but have become more rampant.Europe as we know it now is a mystery.We may not be able to fully solve this mystery for a while, but one thing we know is that Europe, like the United States, suffers from the same disease and is in decline.

Anyone who has worked in stocks knows the principle of "buy up and not buy down", and the same is true for the grasp of the world situation. No one will go to the last light unless his life is shorter than that last light.The establishment of the European Union and the birth of the euro once caused people to have unlimited reverie, thinking that finally a new force that could compete with the United States was born.However, after people waited for several years, they found that the European Union is still a little brother of the United States.

We should admit that the economic integration of the European Union is relatively successful, and other parts of the world have not yet seen such a feat. Europe leads the world.But the "Round Table Conference" is always an illusion. Without the alliance of the East, the alliance will always be a mob, just a fragile alliance.Therefore, the political and military integration of the European Union has become crucial, and these are the two major hurdles that the European Union must break through, and the United States is the keeper.As long as NATO is still in place, the EU cannot achieve military integration; as long as the United States is an ally of the EU, the EU cannot be truly independent politically.

The "Constitution" of the European Union has not been unanimously adopted by all member states, making this quasi-national organization always in a state of "unjust name and unsatisfactory words".In addition to "constitutional" disputes, there are often differences on other common affairs within the EU, which remain unresolved.For example, when the United States, Russia, and China were all developing and applying the global satellite positioning system, the European Union had also started the Galileo global satellite navigation project, and had received the support and participation of many countries, including China, creating a world-wide commotion. There was a lot of buzz.However, five years after the plan was launched, the progress was hindered by internal strife in the EU due to the distribution of benefits.Under the unbearable situation, the Council of the European Union issued an "ultimatum" on March 5, 2007, urging the participating companies to complete the contract negotiations within a time limit, otherwise they would lose their participation qualifications.European Commission President Prodi said that the success or failure of the Galileo project is related to the future of Europe. "This is a struggle between monopoly and anti-monopoly, and a diplomatic struggle involving politics, economy, military and national interests."It can be seen that the relationship between the EU and the United States already has a taste of confrontation.In addition, for some major international events, there will always be various voices in the EU, and there is no consensus; at the same time, the EU often has no decision-making power for some major international events.

The reason for the decline of the EU's current international status is because of their mistakes in strategic decision-making.

Because of this mistake, the European Union is in a very embarrassing position in the world.

First, China, as one of the largest economies in the world, is ostracized by the European Union.As a whole, the European Union is the largest economy in the world, but this economy is fragmented and cannot form a unified force to influence the world.If the EU cooperates with China, it will get twice the result with half the effort.The EU and China have no fundamental conflicts in political, military, or geopolitical relations, and their common interests are quite extensive, so they should be the best cooperative partners in the international arena.A strong China can share more political pressure from the world for the EU, for example, it can disperse the power of the United States against the EU; for Russia, which the EU regards as a tiger, a strong China can also play a check role and reduce the pressure on the EU.If the EU can become stronger, China can also get the same benefits.China attaches great importance to this kind of win-win cooperation.China has repeatedly expressed its willingness to cooperate with the EU, but the EU has ignored it.The EU's abandonment of cooperation with China has resulted in it being in the predicament of fighting alone.For this reason, the EU will have to pay a huge price when facing challenges from the United States, Russia and other countries.

Secondly, the United States has been coveting the oil resources in the Middle East, and has been looking for excuses to occupy the commanding heights of the world. The two Gulf Wars are the manifestations of its intentions.If the United States really controls the Middle East, it will directly threaten the interests of the European Union.By that time, the EU will not be able to get rid of the control of the United States, let alone challenge the dollar with the euro.It is impossible for the EU to understand this very superficial truth.The strange thing is that the EU is actually helping the United States to realize the Greater Middle East plan, helping the evildoers, and one day they will harm themselves.

External aggression has made the EU exhausted, and internal troubles have made the EU even more depressed.EU protectionism is not only used against the outside, but also against the inside.The outbreak of the financial crisis has brought more and more central and eastern European member states into economic difficulties. When they need the EU to step up rescue efforts, French President Sarkozy assured the public that he will save the troubled French auto industry. Relocated the factory to Eastern Europe.The member states of Central and Eastern Europe, which have been economically dry for a long time, are looking forward to the rain. When they heard the news, they immediately exploded. They all believed that this move violated the EU's principle of opposing trade protectionism.

Confronted with criticism, Sarkozy said that if the US could protect its industry, Europe might be able to do the same.For Sarkozy's irrelevant answer, Eastern European countries were even more annoyed, insisting that doing so would cause them greater losses.In order to maintain its integration, the European Union has repeatedly stated that it is considering expanding the scale of the "crisis fund" again to provide assistance to Eastern European countries.It can be seen that the conflict of interests within the EU has threatened the integrity of the EU.

．Another biggest internal worry in the EU is the UK.As mentioned earlier, the UK is an alternative to the EU.Before the end of World War II, Britain was the largest colonizer in the world and one of the most powerful countries in the world. After the "World War II", the national strength of the United Kingdom was almost exhausted, and its overseas colonies were also lost in the wave of worldwide independence, so it was reduced to a second-rate country in the world. Support the facade.In this living environment, Britain must not only maintain its independence, but also rely on the power of the United States to maintain its influence over Europe; it must maintain stable ties with Europe, but it must also be afraid that the United States will be unhappy.Therefore, the UK always makes different voices in the EU and represents the interests of the United States; on the part of the United States, it has to carefully represent the interests of the EU. It is really difficult to have a master and two servants.

France, unlike Britain, was opposed to alliances in his bones.And this policy started with Charles de Gaulle. Therefore, during the Cold War, France was the furthest away from the United States in NATO.A French diplomat said: "Charles de Gaulle wanted to show a political and strategic character of the Cold War. Today, the aim is not to show the French third way in an ideological world. We are in a prosaic world , so the status of France should be promoted in a mundane way.” France’s low profile and the EU’s high profile form a discordant ratio.Former French foreign minister and Mitterrand faction Vedelina said: "In the multi-polar competition, the first issue is to end the Western monopoly. The rise of the G[-] to replace the G[-] shows that we have no choice." From this we can see It shows that France is in the EU, but its heart is outside the EU.

It seems that Germany is the only one who can become the leader of the EU, and Germany's active performance in the EU also shows that he has this desire.Germany is the largest economic entity in the EU, providing 28% of the EU's total budget; Germany is also the most populous country in the EU, accounting for 20% of the EU's population.So some people say that Germany is the engine for the further development and integration of the EU.Faced with Britain's hesitation to join the EU, Germany, together with France, semi-forcibly demanded that Britain join unconditionally, and demanded that Britain give up its special relationship with the United States.It can be seen from this that Germany cherishes the security and stability of the EU more than any other EU member.However, if Germany wants to become the leader of the European Union, it is absolutely impossible without the support of France and the United Kingdom.

Britain, France, and Germany, as the "troika" of the European Union and even the European continent, all have the strength to win the alliance, but sadly, these troikas are not on the same road.

The United Kingdom is an outlier in Europe. It already has a heart and remains chaste to the United States; France always wants to go it alone, especially on defense issues. For example, France withdrew halfway through the development of EF2000. Members are uniformly under the same rules, which makes France and Britain feel very disgusted.In this case, the cooperation between these three European powers has become a problem, not to mention others.No matter who they are the leader of the alliance, the other two countries will not buy it.Therefore, the sinking of Europe, more precisely the European Union, is inevitable.

§§§Section [-] Can the new Europe hold up the hope of European revival

Before the "World War II", the world belonged to Europe, and the great powers relied on strong ships and guns to "enclose land" all over the world. After the end of World War II, although Germany was defeated, it was Europe that was divided. In 1945, the three giants of the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union met in Yalta, which is now part of Ukraine, and formulated the Yalta System, which divided Europe into pieces and was controlled by the United States and the Soviet Union. 45 years later, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the special summit meeting of the CSCE was held in Paris, France, and the 43 participating member states jointly signed the "Paris Charter for New Europe".With the end of the era of division and confrontation in Europe, all countries expressed that they would develop together "on the basis of mutual cooperation and respect", and a new Europe was born.

Victor Hugo, a French romantic writer, said: "One day... all European countries will be tightly integrated into a high-level whole without losing your individual characteristics and shining personalities; At that time, you will build a relationship of friendship in Europe." The freed New Europe did not forget Hugo's words and began to practice them.

(End of this chapter)