2050 superpower

Chapter 15 India: We will copy everything in China (4)
In terms of international trade, since ancient times, India has been a country that mainly relies on sea transportation for trade. There are 14 larger ports and 185 smaller ports along its coast engaged in foreign and coastal trade.Among the more than 500 merchant ships in the world, nearly 300 ocean-going cargo ships pass through the Indian Ocean, with a registered gross tonnage of 640 million tons and an annual foreign trade volume of more than 300 billion US dollars.As the tenth largest industrial country in the world, 85% of India's imports and exports pass through the sea.

Regarding the importance of the Indian Ocean to India, Indian defense experts have this saying: "Whoever can control the Indian Ocean can completely dominate India." Gained military superiority.

Today, the Indian Navy has grown into a regional force and has achieved maritime supremacy in the northern part of the Indian Ocean.Whether India can achieve "leadership in the Indian Ocean" is still unknown.

Judging from India's subjective desire, it not only believes that it has this ability, but also has the conditions to realize this ambition.Kohli, the former Chief of Naval Staff of India, once said: "Undoubtedly, geographical advantage is an important factor. India is located in the center of the Indian Ocean, straddling the east and west trade routes, and the outer islands are in a favorable position. It is far from the ocean and The warm current is close at hand, which is a kind of capital in itself." Paniker also believes: "India's geographical location is very ideal, and it deserves to be a sea power. The two key areas of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are under the control of India. , the peninsular topography of its homeland makes its influence far enough to spread over the sea."

India wants to dominate the Indian Ocean, but its naval strength is far from enough.In the battle for great powers in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Navy is only a bargaining chip that plays a balancing role.Today, the hegemon in the Indian Ocean will not be China, which India is worried about, but major powers such as the United States and Russia.These powers will never cede the Indian Ocean to India.

At present, the purpose of Russia's vigorous support for India's naval development is to win over and control India, serve Russia's interests, and will not make the Indian navy strong enough to threaten its strategic interests.

Therefore, although Russia has provided India with a large number of modern naval ships and other weapons and equipment, it has never agreed to India's request to transfer the core technology for building warships.Not to mention the United States, as long as it needs it, it can set back India's naval power by more than ten years at any time.From the perspective of Asia, India is the hegemon of the Indian Ocean; from the perspective of the world, it cannot be.

§§§ Section [-] There is no India in the international club

Although India is still a developing country, it has always held its head high like a superpower.India's GDP ranks 10th in the world, and its total GDP is nearly 4 times less than that of China.India has only 500 companies in the world's top 8, and China has 46 companies. India is nearly 6 times less than China, but the momentum of mergers and acquisitions of Indian companies in the world is much stronger than that of China.India has maintained an average annual economic growth rate of 20% in the past 6 years, and recently developed at a rate of more than 9%.Although the rise of India is still a new thing in the world, it has attracted the attention of all countries.Seeing Mumbai, the financial capital of India, where there are a lot of tall buildings, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said with relief that these buildings will eventually make China's Shanghai be forgotten by the world, and Mumbai will replace it as the focus of the world.However, in order to draw the world's attention to these high-rise buildings, 40 slum residents in Mumbai had to wander the streets and live in no fixed place, which made foreign tourists shocked by this "miracle".

Some people predict that by the middle of the 21st century, the top three economic powers in the world will be China, the United States, and India, and Beijing, Washington, and New Delhi will become the centers of world power.In terms of economic scale, China is now the second largest in the world, while India is still ranked 10th. If India wants to make this prediction a reality, I am afraid that more "miracles" are needed.However, we have reason to believe that India can create this miracle.China's current economic status is unimaginable to the world 30 years ago; similarly, India, which had no economic hope and people's livelihood 20 years ago, would have thought that it would be the fastest-growing democratic country in the world today.What China can do, India can also copy.

American economic historian Walter Rostow said that the necessary condition for a country’s economy to grow from take-off to sustained growth is the large-scale transfer of investment and labor from rural areas to cities.Both India and China meet the two conditions mentioned by Rostow. The difference is that in the race between China and India, China is 20 years ahead of India.

India's status in world trade and finance is not as prominent as China's, which makes the Indian government worry.In fact, this is more or less because the start of economic development is later than that of China, and India does not need to feel inferior because of this.Some international economic experts believe that because India has many important comparative advantages over China, such as a "democratic system" and a growing young population, India's development prospects are better than China's, and it may even become a country with greater global action capabilities. behavior.In response, "Financial Times" columnist Martin Wolf said: "The Confederation of Indian Industry's 'India Everywhere' campaign swept the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos this year. If public relations is the road to economic success India will conquer the whole world.

Indians are indeed everywhere, while Chinese are relatively invisible. "Maybe Martin is right, because China has been keeping a low profile.

While the world was still quarreling over the financial crisis, India, which "defies the gods", came and became a new member of the international club.India's footsteps towards the world did not start from now, but the world is only now hearing India's footsteps.As early as the 20s, India shouted "The Indian Ocean is India's Indian Ocean". In May 90, India conducted its first nuclear test, and since then, it has entered the world's nuclear club.Since then, India has implemented a southward expansion strategy, expanding the scope of its activities to the South China Sea. On April 1998, 5, India began manufacturing its first aircraft carrier. According to the plan, by 2005, the Indian Navy will have the largest fleet of three aircraft carriers in Asia.This is another big step for India to pursue the status of a global power after entering the world nuclear club.

Whether it is the Cold War or the post-Cold War era, India has played well among the world's major powers, not only safeguarding its own interests, but also maximizing its own interests.As the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, India can maintain a "quasi-ally" relationship with the United States through the war on terror while maintaining an ally relationship with Russia.Regarding this point, China cannot but feel envious and ashamed.

It can be said that compared with China, India's international environment is very relaxed.But it is regrettable that although India has such a superior international environment, it has not obtained the world status like China.

The reason why India has not achieved a status like China in the world has three root causes: First, India is a developing country. Although its appearance rate in the world has increased, it is not enough to make countries around the world hear "India" When I named this name, I didn’t think of the rising India, but a mysterious religious country; secondly, India only has an advantage in the world in a certain field, but it still gives the world the impression of being a poor country. Claiming to realize the "dream of a great power" has more or less made countries feel uncomfortable; third, this is the most important reason, that is, India's "non-alignment" policy has not changed substantially, resulting in self-isolation.This is not the case in China. Although China is "keeping a low profile", it does not give up its efforts to forge ahead.Since the Communist Party of China took control of China's political power, during the Cold War period, China became famous all over the world as one of the "three pillars" in the world.After the end of the Cold War, China implemented reform and opening up. After 30 years of hard work, the world has seen a fresh and dynamic China.Therefore, China's appearance rate in the world has always been much higher than that of India.

Counting India's deficiencies in various aspects, it is not that India is useless in international relations, but its achievements in the world are still remarkable.For example, the Conference of Developing Countries held under the leadership of India launched the Non-Aligned Movement, with 77 countries participating, also known as the "Group of 77", which had a huge impact on the world.In addition, the first Asian-African Conference held under the participation and leadership of India, also known as the "Bandung Conference", adopted the "Declaration on the Promotion of World Peace and Cooperation", making independent Asian and African countries as a new emerging power. On the international stage, India has played a huge role in it.

However, India's "non-alignment" policy makes it only able to sit in the house and watch the world, and is virtually marginalized by the world.After economic globalization, various alliances, forums, and dialogue mechanisms have emerged in an endless stream, but India is rarely seen in these activities.That's why we say that there is no India in the international club. The reason for this situation is not that the world rejects India, but that India rejects the world.

The non-alignment policy is one of the four basic national policies established by Nehru for post-independence India. It has remained unchanged to this day and has become a huge obstacle for India to integrate into the world.In this regard, China also has this problem.Whether it is India or China, insisting on "non-alignment" has its practical significance at that time.During the Cold War, China practiced non-alignment, making it a pole in the balanced world.After the end of the Cold War, both India and China should abandon the idea of ​​"non-alignment" and actively integrate into the world instead of wandering in the gaps of the world.

"Non-alignment" will leave us alone and become herbivores in nature.In nature, carnivores are always in an alliance, and the most typical carnivore is the wolf.We know that wolves, as a herd animal, face pack animals that are much larger than themselves in cooperation with each other when preying on other animals.Although they are all pack animals, the packs of wolves are fundamentally different from those of herbivores.Wolves live in groups to have stronger attack power, while herbivores live in groups not to enhance their guarding ability.When herbivores encounter wolves attacking, they immediately scatter and run away. When one of their own kind is captured by wolves, the group will settle down, ignoring the wolf's tearing and eating of the same kind.

The "Non-Aligned Movement" is a replica of human beings to herbivores, and the United States and some western countries are carnivores like wolves.Therefore, those who sit around the world table will always be the allied powers, and the table will always be the bones of the non-aligned third world countries.

India and China must abandon the idea of ​​"non-alignment". Only in this way can a weak country not be weak, and stand against a strong country.Otherwise, the International Club will never have our place, and can only be a "waiter" who is forced to be "responsible" by the powerful countries, and is not eligible for equal benefits.This is like China in the First World War. Although it was also a member of the Allied Powers, the victory of the Allied Powers did not bring benefits to China, but a greater humiliation.why? "Weak countries have no diplomacy".Mao Zedong in China knew this well back then, so he was determined to build China into an industrialized country, and the reason why the atomic bomb would be produced even in 1 years.At the same time, Mao Zedong also knew the importance of alliances, so he issued a call for "people all over the world to unite and defeat the American aggressors and all their lackeys."

(End of this chapter)