my financial empire

Chapter 18 The basic logic of investment!

"May I ask why there is a problem with the investment direction of our department's fund products?" Deng Yajie, who was sitting next to Fang Wanqing, asked very dissatisfied. Outside of the main line, the others have no investment value?"

"That's right!" The man responded with a chuckle, "As far as the current macroeconomic situation and the status quo of various industries are concerned, only the main business companies that rely on the development of the two fields of 'smart phones' and 'mobile Internet' can have incremental growth." The investment logic of demand, while other traditional industries are just a stock game.

In investment, in the face of a field with ever-exploding demand and a field with slow growth, or stagnant demand, or even a continuous decline in demand, which field has more investment prospects and expectations, I don’t need to say. Bar?

What's more, the state supports macro policies.

For start-up companies and growth companies in the two emerging industries of 'smartphone' and 'mobile Internet', the intensity is also greater.

With the explosive growth of industry demand, greater policy support compared to traditional industries, and the capital market's more tolerant valuation conditions for "technology growth" stocks, looking at the current market, which investment main line can compare with "technology growth" stocks? What is the future expectation and room for growth of the main line of growth?

No, not a single one.

And in fact, according to the actual trend performance of the market in the past two years.

The smart money group in the market also fully agrees with the investment logic of the main line of "technological growth", and has been increasing their positions on this main line.

The "Apple Concept" hype that broke out the year before last, the "Internet Finance" concept hype in the second half of last year, and the "Mobile Payment" and "Mobile Internet" concepts that have continued this year... On the whole, the market has always revolved around "Technology Growth" This mainline is hyping.

According to the performance of various market indexes in the most recent year.

The GEM index doubled from the bottom, and the Shanghai stock index remained unchanged, which is enough to show that the market is mainly focused on the main line of "technological growth".

In addition, through the position data of institutional groups in our industry and the institutional investment data disclosed in the annual reports of more than 2000 stocks in the entire market, we can also see that the main weight direction of institutional positions in our industry has also been biased towards the main line of "technological growth". up.

We all know that in the secondary market, in addition to fundamental expectations and favorable policy factors.

What ultimately determines the stock price trend is the recognition and continued commitment of the main funds.

However, we can perceive the market performance of these big bull stocks and long-term bull stocks no matter through the data of institutional holdings in the industry or the market, such as "Netspeed Technology, Tianyu Information, Langma Information, Shanghai Steel Union..." I realized that the main funds in the market have actually been focusing on the main line of 'technological growth'.

That being the case, it can basically be concluded.

If the market has a sustained trend, then its breaking point must be generated within the main line of "technological growth".

The investment direction of your fund has seriously deviated from the core line of the market, which is 'technological growth'. That is not a problem of investment direction, but what is it?

The so-called hard work in the wrong direction will only make you work harder and make more mistakes.

I think this sentence should still be appropriate for the overall investment strategy of your department's funds in the past one or two years. "

During the men's tirade, during the lunch rush hour, several employees from the other fund product trading rooms of the company's fund investment department sat in the empty seats around Su Yue and some of the empty seats beside the man. A trader who knew the man, after listening to the man's analysis of the market, couldn't help but praise him: "As expected of Senior Brother Pengfei, the conclusion of this market analysis is really awesome!"

"Our team leader Lu is naturally awesome. Not long ago, team leader Lu discovered the bullish stock 'Langma Information', which has increased profits by at least 3000 million for our department's fund products." A man from the same department as the man The trader also praised at this time.

"It's no wonder that our company's 'Technology Growth Innovation Investment Mixed Selection' has such a good performance. It turns out that there is an awesome person like Team Leader Lu!"

"Next year at the latest, Team Leader Lu should be in charge of a fund product alone, right?"

"After listening to Team Leader Lu's analysis, I realized that in the past two years, the market performance of the main line of 'technological growth' has been so strong. These reasons have not been straightened out before. investment logic."

"Group Leader Lu's analysis just now is really worth a thousand dollars!"

There are more and more praises from around, and everyone agrees with Lu Pengfei's penetrating market analysis just now.

After all, the past historical trend of the market has verified the logic Lu Pengfei said.

And according to the net asset value growth and performance of the fund product "Technology Growth Innovation Investment Mixed Selection" of Lu Pengfei's department, compared with the net asset value and performance of the fund product "Future Investment Mixed Selection" of Su Yue's department In terms of performance, it is clear at a glance which is right and which is wrong.

"Well, what Xiao Lu said just now really clarified the main investment line of the market's 'technological growth'. The market trend in the past two years has been stronger than the market trend." At some point, the company's fund investment department Mr. Zhang, the business manager in charge, also sat in an empty seat around him, holding chopsticks in his hand, and said with a smile, "At your age, it's pretty good that you can understand the market to this extent. We must continue to work hard in the future! "

"Thank you, Mr. Zhang, for your compliment." Lu Pengfei didn't expect the boss of the company's fund investment department to sit behind him. He was startled, and hurriedly stood up to respond.

"Hehe, you don't have to be so restrained during the break." Mr. Zhang chuckled and waved him to sit down.

Lu Pengfei nodded slightly, and then sat down again.

"Group Leader Lu's research on the basic logic of investment is indeed quite profound." Su Yue saw that more and more colleagues around him gathered together, and at the same time the eyes of the other party became more and more arrogant, so he couldn't help but smiled and said, "You can forget The most important point of market investment is the 'expected gap' between the stock price and the market's expected reaction.

It is true that 'smartphone' and 'mobile Internet' are huge growth markets that can be seen at a glance in the future, and the explosion of industry demand is foreseeable. At the same time, the investment logic you mentioned before is also valid.

But the market has been speculating on the line of 'technological growth' for two years.

From 'Apple Concept' to 'Internet Finance', then from 'Internet Finance' to 'Mobile Payment', and from 'Mobile Payment' to the whole concept of 'Mobile Internet', accompanied by one after another 'monster stocks' ', the rise of 'bull stocks', it can be said that the entire main line of 'technological growth', all the themes and stories that have the investment logic and expectations you mentioned before, have been fired.

In other words, in the excellent market performance of the main line of "technological growth" in the past two years.

The future expectations of this entire main line have been raised to a very high level by the main funds involved in the hype of this main line.

Such high expectations have led to the fact that in the current market, although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is still hovering at 2000 points, many popular growth stocks in the field of "technological growth", such as "Netspeed Technology, LeTV, Shanghai Steel Union", etc., are already in the market. As high as 100 times, or even 200 times the PE valuation.

Such a high valuation, what kind of performance explosive ability is needed to digest it?

What's more, as you said just now, according to the annual reports of many companies and the public position data of many institutions in our industry, it can be seen that on the main investment line of "technological growth", the overall weight of major institutions' positions is obviously high. Now that the main funds have been piled up in this main line field, if the market of this main line is to rise in the future, when the market as a whole is still in a game of stock funds and investor confidence is still at a freezing point, who will pull up this line? What about 'heavy sedan chair'?

For the financial trading market.

Regardless of whether it is an individual stock or a mainline investment, outstanding performance in the past does not mean that it is performing well now, and it does not mean that it will perform well in the future.

When it is a main line of market investment, everyone is optimistic about it.

Then, the expectation of this main line of investment has been hit to the extreme.

And because everyone is optimistic, it will also lead to the accumulation of funds for entering the market, which makes it extremely difficult to complete the market adjustment of this main investment line and the exchange of chips in a short period of time.

In this way, under the influence of many factors that inhibit the rise of the stock price under the influence of many factors that restrain the rise of the stock price... The main line of "technological growth" investment with poor space, in the market, there is currently such a huge amount of stupid takeover funds, will it continue to push up the market for this main line?Obviously, there will be no!
Therefore, Team Leader Lu is firmly optimistic about the main line of "technological growth".

In fact, it is not the best investment direction in the current market, but the worst and worst investment direction.

Of course, the line of "technological growth" is not without opportunities in the future, but requires the current high stock price, valuation, expectations, and a group of main funds that have formed a group to form an upward pressure on the market... These factors that inhibit the rise of stock prices, in The entire main line is slowly changing in the adjustment of time and space, and a certain "expectation difference" space is re-formed, and only then can there be a sustained market.

In contrast, the traditional industry fields that Team Leader Lu dismissed.

Naturally, under the influence of various factors, the market's expectations for the future of these industries are very low, but their stock prices and market valuations are lower than the future expectations, and this is the "expectation gap".

Moreover, due to the current market, few investors and main funds are optimistic about these traditional industry sectors.

As a result, everyone's positive response to these traditional industries is far slower than the negative response, which has caused the expansion of the actual "expectation difference" space.

That is, the stock price reacted worse than expected.

As for such a space for "difference in expectations", when the fundamentals of these traditional industries really improve, or when the macroeconomic policies are favorable and stimulated rapidly, the expected reversal will make the stock price more flexible and more valuable for trading and investment.

Two different investment lines.

On extremely high expectations, to exceed expectations; on extremely low expectations, to exceed expectations.

Which is easier?I think... everyone has the answer in their hearts, right? "

When Su Yue said this, he just raised his eyes and looked around, but saw that Lu Pengfei, who was still arrogant just now, was speechless, his face was obviously gloomy, and all the colleagues around him who praised Lu Pengfei before were also silent at this moment, even Even Mr. Zhang, the boss of the company's fund investment department who had praised Lu Pengfei before, was thinking carefully about the essence of Su Yue's market insights at this moment, and his heart was quite shocked.

The so-called layman looks at the excitement and the insider looks at the doorway.

Those gathered here at this moment are all industry insiders who have a deep understanding of financial market transactions. Whose analysis can more directly touch the essence of transactions, better fit the current market development, and have a higher chance of capturing excess profits in the market. I know it all.

"What's your name, which department?"

At the moment when everyone around was silent and their hearts were somewhat touched, behind Su Yue, a voice that was quite familiar to him suddenly sounded.

Su Yue turned his head and followed the voice.

I saw Mr. Lin, the general manager of the company's asset management business, accompanied by his secretary, standing behind him at some point, looking at him with a smile, his eyes full of admiration.

Su Yue stood up and responded with a smile: "My name is Su Yue, and I am a trader in the trading room of the Fund Investment Department's 'Future Investment Mixed Selection'."

"A trader in the 'Future Investment Mixed Selection' trading room." Mr. Lin was a little surprised when he heard Su Yue's self-introduction. He walked into Su Yue's side, shook Su Yue's hand with a smile, and said, "You The market insights just now touched me a lot, young people, the future is promising!"

"Thank you Mr. Lin for your compliment." Su Yue said with a smile.

"Continue to work hard in the future." After letting go of Su Yue's hand, Mr. Lin patted Su Yue's shoulder lightly, and continued, "I look forward to your better performance in the company's trading position."

After finishing speaking, Mr. Lin turned his eyes, and then fell on Mr. Wang of the fund investment department and the employees in the company's cafeteria, and said loudly: "A person's cognition is limited. I am very glad that the employees of our company have such an enterprising spirit of discussing and debating with each other. I also believe that under the leadership of this good atmosphere, the asset management business department of our company will be able to become more and more successful in the future. good."

After listening to Mr. Lin's words, everyone applauded under Mr. Wang's lead.

On the other hand, Mr. Lin, accompanied by Mr. Wang and his secretary, gradually left in the midst of applause, and told the secretary while walking, "Xiao Cheng, the fund manager of the fund product 'Future Investment Mixed Selection' is called ...Wang Liling, right? Tell her to come to my office after work in the afternoon."

"Okay, Mr. Lin." The secretary responded, and planned to turn around in a hurry to inform Wang Liling.

But he was suddenly stopped by President Lin.

"Oh, and..." Mr. Lin thought for a while, and then said, "The fund sales department, let them cooperate to promote the product 'Future Investment Mixed Selection', since it has not yet reached the final compulsory liquidation Time, then there is still a glimmer of hope to bring the dead back to life. At the same time, let the fund sales department temporarily stop the series of promotions for the product "Technology Growth Innovation Investment Mixed Selection", which is the company's number one main fund product that we plan to launch. Direction, you still have to think about it carefully!"

PS: This chapter is basically the market investment logic written based on my many years of trading experience, I hope it is useful to everyone!
(End of this chapter)