The Road to Rebirth Finance

Chapter 470 Historic Moment (Two in One)

There are still five days left in October. Under normal circumstances, the sooner the financial report is announced, the group with the best performance is usually the one.

Those with excellent grades are always the easiest to fail. It is human nature.

The financial reports released this weekend can be considered a better batch, but if they are left to the 31st, which is the last day, most of them will not be good.

During this week’s financial reporting period, in addition to Junshi Capital’s success in the market, the movements of the national team are very concerning.

At the end of the third quarterly report, among the companies that have already disclosed their quarterly reports, it can be clearly seen that the national team headed by China Securities Finance Corporation has clearly changed its shareholding strategy.

In this year's semi-annual report, according to statistics, the shareholding ratio of China Securities Finance Corporation that appeared most frequently was around 4.90%, which was just below the holding line.

Among them, 57 companies have a shareholding ratio of 4.90%, and in the latest three quarterly reports, as of today, only two securities companies have a shareholding ratio of 4.90%.

The number of companies with a shareholding ratio of 2.99% increased from 7 at the time of the semi-annual report to 21.

Among these 21 companies, they are generally traditional blue chip stocks, with 6 companies in the financial sector accounting for the most.

Since the market rescue in July 2015, the national team has established a total of 7 rescue funds. Currently, there are still three rescue funds that have not released their third quarter reports.

Among the two funds that have been announced, relevant media revealed that the share of one of them dropped from 120.10 billion at the beginning of the period to 1.04 million at the end of September.

In other words, 99% of the fund shares have been redeemed, and the warning issued at the same time shows that the number of fund holders has been less than 20 for 200 consecutive working days.

Another fund also withdrew, and rumors that the national team was suspected of liquidating its positions spread widely on the last day of this weekend.

From this market inference, the national team has already made suspected moves to clear out positions!

However, as the news was fermenting, the national team quickly responded and announced specific data. Since their establishment in July 2015, the five rescue funds have been operating stably.

As of the end of 2017, the total net asset value of the five rescue funds at the end of the period was 2502.26 billion yuan, with a total floating profit of 502.62 billion yuan. The yield rate far outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.

I responded, but it seems that there is no response. It only said that it was the closing assets as of 2017, which was related to the decline in shareholdings of major listed companies in the third quarter report.

In fact, it is not difficult to see that the national team is really gradually starting to withdraw from the plan.

Some people even speculated that the sharp drop at the end of January was most likely caused by the execution of its exit plan.

In addition to the unstable factors suspected of withdrawing, on the evening of the 28th, another news that exceeded market expectations was widely spread.

At 7 o'clock in the evening, Maotai Liquor Industry officially announced its financial report for the third quarter of 2018. Once it was released, the market was shocked!
Maotai's third quarter report shows that its revenue only increased by 3.81% year-on-year, and its net profit only increased by 2.71% year-on-year. There was almost no growth in revenue and net profit.

This performance is a real performance mine for Mao Tai.

The consensus expectation given by the market is that Maotai's full-year revenue and profit growth rate in 2018 will be around 30%. In the first half of the year, Maotai's revenue and profit growth have reached 40%.

In other words, in the second half of the year, Maotai needs both performance and profit to reach a growth rate of more than 20% to meet market expectations.

Moreover, since 2016, Maotai’s single-quarter growth rate has never been less than 11% for 10 consecutive quarters.

In the third quarter of 2017, Maotai's revenue and profit growth rates doubled, reaching 115% and 138.41% respectively.

In the first six quarters from 2017 to the first half of 2018, Maotai’s growth rate has not been lower than 30%, which is why the market has given high expectations.

In the case of almost no growth in the third quarter, Maotai needs to achieve the full-year performance expectation in the fourth quarter, and it needs to achieve a growth of more than 50% in both revenue and profit.

Obviously, this is a difficult task.

As soon as Maotai’s performance was released, major institutions responded within a short period of time. CICC quickly lowered the target price of Maotai from the previous forecast of 925 yuan to 900 yuan.

China Merchants Food is more aggressive, directly lowering the target price to 670 yuan, and maintaining the recommendation rating at -A.

As of the close of trading on October 10, Maotai's stock price closed at 26 yuan. According to the prediction of China Merchants Food, Maotai's stock price growth rate is less than 610.10%!

Sister Li, who invested halfway, even published an article: "Maotai's performance exploded, and the end of an era."

Publicly shorting consumer stocks led by Mao and Taiwan, claiming that the investment logic of A-shares in the past 20 years has changed.

"MD, don't these guys need to sleep? They sang empty songs in the middle of the night, one by one."

Gu Junhao was also paying attention to the information on the Internet at home at this time. Maotai's financial statements have always been the weather vane of a sector.

As a sector that Junshi Department is about to build a position in, it is impossible for Gu Junhao not to pay attention to his financial report, no matter how late it is, he has to wait.

According to the third quarter report, large institutions including the national team, social security funds and other large institutions hold a total of nearly 10 billion shares of Maotai, and nearly a hundred funds, large and small, hold a total of 5176.99 million shares of Maotai.

Under China Asset Management alone, a total of 29 funds, large and small, hold Maotai, with positions as high as 893.75 million shares.

There is no doubt that these funds were responsible for the crash in the past few trading days; since this week, Maotai's total has reached nearly 260 billion yuan.

The trading volume was nearly 120 billion yuan higher than the previous half, which is because some institutions started to run away ahead of schedule.

After the results were officially released, these institutions, large and small, went on to sell their shares. The valuation of China Merchants Food was simply outrageous.

Even if Maotai's performance and profit growth in the fourth quarter are the same as in the third quarter, without any growth, the performance and profits of the entire industry are not low, and they are not at the predicted price of 670 yuan.

Compared to CICC, which lowered its estimated price to 900 yuan, the estimated price of 670 yuan is simply outrageous and opens the door to outrageousness!
Outrageous home!
Sister Li, who denounces the entire A-share investment logic, has a well-known reputation.

Summarizing all kinds of news, Gu Junhao also saw the cruelty of the capital market. The national team's withdrawal plan had been announced long ago, and it was not something that happened in a day or two.

However, it was questioned by major media this weekend. Combined with Maotai’s third quarter report and the sharp decline in the past few days, major companies and celebrities collectively sang short.

Within a few hours of Mao’s quarterly report coming out, bearish research reports sprung up like mushrooms after a rain, as if they had been written in advance.

All the information is put together, and there are three words: "Cut the leeks!"

This is a coalition of large institutions. New rescue measures are being implemented step by step. The market is improving step by step. On Friday, it got rid of the influence of rice stocks.

Under this situation, the trend of A-shares will only get better and better, and most of the trapped investors have regained hope of unwinding their arbitrage and even making a profit.

The renewed popularity of A shares; everything shows that the rebound trend is improving.

Under such circumstances, ordinary investors are bound to be unwilling to sell their chips, and those institutions that have been short-sighted before want to buy enough chips, what should they do?

Create panic!
The previous sudden collapse of the market without any negative impact was a process of creating panic; and this weekend is a new one.

Even if the national team responded and reiterated its plan, it would be of no avail.

"Hey, it's so difficult to be a stock investor. It's even harder to be an A-share stock investor." Gu Junhao sighed while analyzing various data.

Even if he knew what the result would be, Gu Junhao would not be able to jump out and refute the media's remarks.

Moreover, this is also in line with the interests of Gu Junhao and Junshi Capital to a certain extent. Now that he has become a member of the organization, the only thing Gu Junhao can do is not to tell lies.

On Monday, October 2018, 10, Gu Junhao witnessed history again!

At 9:25, the call auction ended. Maotai Liquor Industry opened with a rare one-word limit, and the stock price reported 549.09 yuan.

In a call auction, Maotai's market value evaporated by 766 billion yuan, and the total market value fell below 7000 billion yuan.

On the lower limit board, there are more than 7 lots and 40 billion funds are queuing up to sell. If Maotai's stock price closes at the lower limit today, it will be the first one-word limit drop since its listing.

Since September 2013, 9, although Maotai has dropped to its daily limit several times, it has never closed at the lower limit price. This is the first time in history that it has opened with a single lower limit!

Maotai opened with a one-word limit, and of course the big consumer stocks, including the liquor sector, were not much better.

In the liquor sector, Yanghe Liquor, Gujin Gong Liquor, Shuijing Shares, Wuliangye, Fenjiu Group, Shunxin Shares, and Yili Shares all opened at the lower limit.

The entire Baisha sector almost always opened at the lower limit, and also implicated were white horse stocks in the consumer sector.

For example, Midea, Gree, Haitian, etc. all opened with sharp declines. Angel shares, which had previously performed well, also fell by the limit again.

In addition, banks and insurance companies also opened lower, and the three major indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen that were affected also opened lower.

In the trading room, Gu Junhao couldn't help but sigh when he saw the scenes in the two markets after the collective bidding:

"It's so cruel. These people use billions of funds to leverage the entire market. In this situation, retail investors can really survive in the A-share market without running away."

"It's indeed scary, but the overall market is actually not too bad. Among our holdings, companies like Ningwang, China New Communications, and Dongfang Fortune are not doing too badly."

At the opening today, a series of GEM stocks such as Ningwang, Dongfang Fortune, and Tonghuashun opened higher against the market trend, while China-Singapore Communications opened at a flat price.

"The overall trend has not changed, it is just deliberately creating panic; but there will definitely still be some impact."

"Today, some people are building positions in the liquor sector, and some can increase their efforts to do T. This is also a good opportunity."

At present, the number of orders for Maotai has been increasing; to be honest, Gu Junhao was able to eat the previous 7 lots by himself.

You can invest here at a real price. The current total scale is about 250 billion yuan. According to the 10% position plan, Maotai can buy 25 billion yuan.

The currently reserved 30% of the position, which is about 75 billion yuan in cash, will all be used in the liquor sector.

Today's collective limit drop gave me a good opportunity to build a position, not to mention Junshi No. [-] and self-operated trading.

For the self-operated account, Gu Junhao didn't plan to buy many liquor plates, but Maotai and Wuliangye still planned to allocate some.

It doesn’t matter how much you have, but what you have is enough.

Therefore, if Gu Junhao is determined to buy today, it is entirely possible that Maotai will open the lower limit.

However, you can't do this. If you do it, you will be hated by others.

They have set up such a big situation, and if you, as a colleague, act as a spoiler, you will easily be beaten by a group of people.

Just follow behind and steal some bargains.

At 9:30, Gu Junhao gave an order: "Maotai, Wuliang Night, divide the wine, ancient and modern tribute wine, Luzhou Wine Industry, start buying at our pace." This time, Jun was only prepared to buy at the real price. After investing in five liquor stocks, focusing on the leading liquor industry, Gu Junhao was not ready to cast a wider net.

If the share of a fund rises again in the future, and these five stocks have bought enough 10% of the shares, and the shares of liquor are still at a low level.

When the time comes, Gu Junhao will buy again. He will first get the top chips at this historic moment.

The continued decline of the large consumer sector has seriously affected the trend of the main board, especially the Shanghai Composite Index. The Shanghai Composite Index shows no signs of rebound and continues to decline.

On the contrary, the GEM Index performed well; at 9:40, the GEM Index fell to around 1250 points and rebounded quickly with the rise of heavyweight stocks such as Dongfang Fortune and Tong Huashun.

The Internet financial sector has been very active recently, and the 5G sector continues to play a bottoming out role.

China-Singapore Communications, which opened at a flat price, fell slightly and rose nearly 10% at 2 o'clock.

As for another demon stock in the future 5G sector, the stock price still remains around 4 yuan, maintaining low fluctuations.

Although it has been nearly a month since the position was established, the trading volume of Dongfang shares during this month has been too small, adding up to less than 3 million yuan.

For this reason, Junshijie Investment failed to appear in the latest list of the top ten shareholders of this now unknown listed company.

Based on the current trading volume, it will probably take another month to buy enough shares.

It is precisely because of this that in order not to share the energy of the traders, Gu Junhao is currently operating this stock by himself, and he can place an order there casually with trading software, which can be regarded as enjoyable.

Buy more, buy less, just let it happen, there is no rush anyway.

I remember that during the launch of Junshi No. [-], Gu Junhao often operated by himself, playing the dual roles of fund manager and trader.

Gu Junhao also participated in the early trading of Junshi No. [-]; but after the new traders were in place, Gu Junhao rarely operated.

2017. Before October 2018, he had never traded. This time, with the help of Dongfang Shares, Gu Junhao could recall the past.

However, this kind of sluggish trading volume is really meaningless, that is, mechanical pending orders, there is no feeling at all.

At the close of trading at noon, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to fall, and the popular ChiNext was also dragged down by this and dived again.

Maotai Liquor Industry failed to open the market all morning. Even though Junshi Group has been buying continuously, Maotai's trading volume in the morning exceeded 15 billion yuan, but the closed orders on the lower limit remained at 7 yuan. Hand left and right.

"It seems that the main funds are determined to seal Maotai at the lower limit today. After all the morning trading, there are still 7 lots, which is the same as the opening data."

I have to say, this kind of behavior is really a dog.

At the same time, Gu Junhao was also glad that he did not impulsively pry the floor of Maotai. Judging from the situation of funds in the market, the board was sealed today.

Even if Gu Junhao goes to steal the limelight, he may not really be able to hit the bottom limit.

Sure enough, what if there are memories of past lives? Apart from policies, the only thing that can influence the trend of A-shares is the collective choice of big funds.

At the end of the day's trading, Maotai Liquor Industry still closed the limit, with more than 36 billion yuan traded throughout the day, most of which was bought by the Junshi Group.

There were still as many as 5 stocks in the entire liquor sector that fell below the limit throughout the day. In the past five trading days, the overall market value of the liquor sector has shrunk by more than 3400 billion yuan.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which was severely affected, plunged 2.18% throughout the day. The index closed at 2542.10 points. The big rebounds on October 10 and October 22 have been completely swallowed up.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which once again fell below the daily and [-]-day moving average and showed a trend of breaking, is still facing a major test.

The ChiNext Index continued to dive due to the impact in the afternoon, and finally closed down 1.01%. However, the trend is still stronger than that of the Shanghai Composite, and currently there is support from the daily 10-day line.

Popular stocks such as Dongfang Fortune and Tonghuashun bucked the market trend and closed higher today. 5G leader China-Singapore Communications, which performed well throughout the day, also bucked the market trend and closed up more than 1%.

However, Ning Wang unexpectedly suffered a relatively large impact. Ning Wang, which opened high and moved low throughout the day, fell by more than 5%, which also dragged down the net value of Junshiji Investment today.

After the market closed, the entire market was discussing Maotai's one-word limit down, as well as the hard-hit baijiu sector and large consumer goods.

Since it was listed on August 2001, 8, Maotai's closing price has never dropped by the limit in more than ten years, let alone this trend of falling by the limit throughout the day.

Even a decline of more than 9% has only occurred three times in history, which shows how rare it is.

One word limit down, Maotai Liquor, which should have appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List, did not appear on today's Dragon and Tiger List, and the funds showed a state of net inflow.

Since its listing, Maotai’s compound growth rate has been close to 140 times. Following the large-scale short-selling last night, Maotai, which fell by the limit for the first time in history today, once again ushered in a short-selling climax after the market.

Among those who are betting against the company, Ufa private equity fund managers have the largest number.

The price of Maotai is no longer attractive. It is the most talked about after the closing today. This group of people dare to buy hundreds of times, tens of thousands of times PE and even black swan stocks and ST stocks.

After the transaction ended today, people began to question Maotai's PE, which seemed a bit funny. . .

Some media also came to Gu Junhao and wanted to ask his opinion. After all, from 2016 to 2017, Gu Junhao was known as the Xiangxiang Manager.

At the beginning of this year, Junshi Group cleared the entire liquor sector en masse, and there was no trace of liquor in the series of positions previously announced.

Through this collective bearish action, the media wanted Gu Junhao to express a certain opinion on the liquor clearance sector at the beginning of the year.

However, Gu Junhao couldn't help but refuse these because he didn't have time.

Just kidding, wouldn’t it be nice to buy secretly at such a good opportunity?Why should I jump out and sing too much? If I really want to sing too much, I might as well just quit today.

There are two opinions on whether the price limit will be lowered or not, but at least the trading volume will be enlarged and the opportunity to build a one-time position will be greater.
-
Tuesday, October 10, the penultimate trading day of the month.

Maotai Liquor Industry opened with a stock price of 510 yuan. Although it still fell 7.66%, it at least opened the lower limit.

In terms of news, after yesterday's close, the China Securities Regulatory Commission continued to promote market confidence. Perhaps it is for this reason that Maotai did not open with a lower limit again today.

There is nothing wrong with creating panic, but if it goes wrong and it actually becomes a panic, then there will be good results.

You must know that so many white horse stocks plummeted yesterday, and countless white horse stocks fell to their limit, which frightened retail investors.

Although there have been white horse sacrifices before, so many white horse stocks fell to the limit in one day. This scene was rare even during the stock market crashes in 2015 and 2016.

"The market is open today, and the volume should be increased. Try to buy more and speed up the speed of building positions."

During the call auction, Gu Junhao once again issued an order to speed up the establishment of Maotai positions. The stock price actually reached 500 yuan, and it only took two trading days.

I have to say that these organizations have really helped Gu Junhao. If it follows the normal trend in the past, Maotai will be around 650 no matter what.

In this case, Gu Junhao can only hold his nose and buy. There are only two months left in 2018, and there are not many days left for Gu Junhao to actually build a position.

After the transaction officially started, the buying power of more than 25 billion yuan pulled Maotai's stock price to 2 yuan within 524.90 minutes, and the decline was instantly narrowed to less than 5%.

Several thousand-sold orders are masterpieces of the Junshi Department. During the morning meeting, Gu Junhao reiterated that Maotai, which is around 500 yuan, is the best gift God has bestowed on the Junshi Department.

It’s okay not to open the board today. If the board is opened, you don’t have to think so much at all. It’s just a big order. It’s a long-short game anyway.

At 9:45, the decline in Maotai's stock price narrowed to around 3%. The wide fluctuations in Maotai's stock price seriously affected the trend of the liquor sector and the broader market.

The ensuing smashing was also extremely violent. Within half an hour of trading, Maotai fell as low as 509.02 yuan, falling below the opening price with a drop of nearly 8%.

An extremely long negative line with high volume on the upside scared investors on the market. The Shanghai Composite Index once plunged by more than 1%, and the ChiNext Index also fell by nearly 2%.

"Damn it, are you going to stop running again? These people are so cruel."

"It's down a hair, and the trading volume is not as high as the opening. What are you afraid of? Just buy."

"Brother, the trading volume is the same as the opening. So today's trading volume is incredible. The opening is over 20 billion. Who can bear it?"

"Why are you talking so much? The boss asked me to buy it, so I will buy it. I will try to finish the Maotai position today, and then slowly do other things."

"I also said it was so exciting. I didn't expect to see Maotai fall to the limit once in my career. It was worth it, haha."

"Buy, buy, buy, pull it up, we will protect the market, haha."

At midday closing, in addition to the entry of OTC funds, Maotai was once again pulled up to near the daily average yellow line, and the stock price closed at 518.15 yuan, down 5.63%.

Thousands of transactions were made, with Maotai's turnover exceeding 50 billion yuan. Northbound funds were very willing to buy, and the Junshi Group, as one of the representatives of domestic long-term investors, competed for chips on the market.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were very unstable in the morning, and the three major indexes were at risk of breaking out again. In the afternoon, the major financial sectors started to protect the market.

Brokerages took the lead, and banks and the Internet financial sector that were related to brokerages and finance broke out collectively. The three major indexes also began to turn red under the continued impact of the brokerage sector.

After many years, the brokerage sector once again set off a wave of daily limit. As of the close, a total of six brokerage stocks had daily limit, and the three major indexes also achieved a V-shaped reversal in the process of the brokerage explosion.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 1%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, and the auto parts sector also exploded today, with a total of more than 10 stocks hitting their daily limits.

Xushen Group, which has increased its holdings in the self-operated market, also followed the sector and rose by more than 8% today. Although today's market index did not increase much, there were quite a lot of daily limit increases on the market.

Popularity doesn't seem to be that weak?

The long-short battle between Maotai and Taiwan in the afternoon was still very fierce. Since the opening of trading at noon, the decline of Maotai and Taiwan once narrowed to less than 1.5%, and the shock still exceeded 4%.

At the end of the day, the stock price of Maotai Liquor Industry, which fell 4.57% daily, closed at 524 yuan, with a daily trading volume of 106 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of the Shanghai Composite Index's trading volume throughout the day.

After the market closed, Gu Junhao also summarized the Maotai wine he bought in the past two days. For Maotai Liquor, which had a trading volume of more than 140 billion yuan in two days, Junshi was undoubtedly the main buying force.

The three major sectors bought Maotai Liquor Industry with a market value of more than 35 billion yuan, accounting for about 25% of the two-day trading volume.

Gu Junhao was very satisfied with the result: "Not bad, let's continue tomorrow and try to buy enough 100 billion yuan."

Junshi Price Investment calculates the maximum position standard of 25 billion yuan. Junshi No. 40 also expects to buy about 35 billion yuan. In addition, Gu Junhao plans to buy [-] billion yuan for self-operated stocks.

Part of the 35 billion yuan, Gu Junhao used financing funds. Junshi Capital has already raised 30 billion yuan from banks in advance, and is currently in the process of gradually receiving the funds.

Maotai, which costs less than 600 yuan, has a market value of less than 7000 billion yuan. Based on the current size of Junshi Capital, it is reasonable to buy it for 100 billion yuan, right?
　Two in one, two chapters with 6700 words, don’t say I only updated one chapter.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)