The Road to Rebirth Finance

Chapter 355 Stock Market Crash 3.0
The circuit breaker mechanism was launched on the first day, and the market cooperated with two circuit breaker operations. The market closed early, and the emergence of new things really stunned investors.

It is not only investors who are not adapting to the new rules, but even the management seems a little at a loss.

In the evening news, it was rumored that the supervisory department informally notified the listed company through the exchange that before the new rules are fully adapted, the major shareholders will not be allowed to reduce their holdings until the date of the expiration of the previous bailout ban, which is the 8th of this month. until the rules are published.

This also fully demonstrates that the regulatory level is obviously not fully prepared for the emergence of such a rapid circuit breaker. The overreaction of the market has made most people not calm enough. You must know that even if there is a circuit breaker mechanism in the United States, so far, history There was only one fusing behavior on the Internet.

The circuit breaker is accidental, but it is also inevitable. First of all, from the macroeconomic perspective, 2015 is at the beginning of economic recovery, but the corresponding economic situation is also the worst year in the past ten years.

For the first time since 1999, the net profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country has experienced negative growth. According to the latest annual report forecast statistics, the net profit of A-share listed companies has dropped by 14% after excluding financial stocks and two barrels of oil.

Secondly, although 2015 was the year of the stock market disaster, in fact, the annual index of all A shares is still rising, and this is still at a high level based on the 2014% increase in the whole year of 59.

No matter how high the Growth Enterprise Market Index is, the high valuations of small and medium-sized start-up stocks are still very common, and the market value of some five black stocks is still high, and market speculation is full of chaos.

In addition, before New Year's Day, the global stock market plummeted at the same time due to the price of rubber and oil. The rice stocks that opened tonight also performed poorly. Even Nvidia, which has always been stable, gapped down and opened lower today.

From the trend point of view, Nvidia, which has been in the negative for two consecutive days before New Year’s Day, gapped downward today, and its stock price trend has also begun to develop in a weak direction. However, the downward gap of rice stocks is different from that of A shares. There is no choice for Xu Jianbiao to reduce his position in Nvidia.

Just let a few traders take a tentative short-selling test with a very small position to see where the stock price can adjust to, and prepare for a large increase in the future. At present, Junshi’s self-operated market is still lying more than 1.6 The amount of [-] million US dollars is all prepared for Nvidia.

The international oil price plummeted, the performance of the global peripheral market was not good, and its own index was at a high level, and the economic environment has not yet improved. The weak market performance has actually been supported by various potential factors.

From a macro point of view, the environment is not good, but from a micro point of view, most of the results of the fourth quarter report released so far are relatively poor compared to the same period in 2014 and the first three quarters of this year.

The second point is the current market liquidity. In the past four months after the two bailouts, the regulators have introduced many policies to stabilize the market, and the current monetary policy can be described as extremely loose. In 2015, five consecutive RRR cuts and interest rates have been cut. The seven-day reverse repurchase has dropped by 2015 BP compared with the beginning of 160.

BP means base point in finance. It is usually used as a unit of measurement for bond and bill interest rate changes. 1 base point is equal to 0.01%.

From the perspective of liquidity, the current market does not support the plunge, and from the perspective of various policies, it does not support a large-scale correction, but the plunge is coming as scheduled.

From the perspective of technical form, although there is not enough time for the bottom to consolidate, but from the perspective of wave theory, the three waves have been completed. Even if there are five down waves, it is usually only displayed by exchanging time for space.

From a micro-posture and technical perspective, A-shares do not support plummeting and deep corrections, but today it came as scheduled and triggered two circuit breakers, which seems somewhat strange.

In fact, except for Gu Junhao, most people were a little baffled by the circuit breaker on the first trading day of the new year. Many people seemed a little unbelievable when the circuit breaker came for the first time.

And the first reaction of most investors to the circuit breaker is to clear their positions quickly to avoid being unable to sell them in the future. This also caused the CSI 300 Index to fall from 5% to 7% in only 3 minutes after the resumption of trading.

The original intention of the circuit breaker policy was to prevent the market from experiencing the ups and downs after the 2015 stock market crash; but in fact, the circuit breaker policy did not calm investors down, but increased panic.

It has to be said that the consecutive rescue measures introduced by the regulatory authorities and the real money invested by the national team have given the circuit breaker policy a foundation of trust. Under the inertial understanding, investors believe that such a large policy will generally be very cautious when it is introduced. It must be very perfect.

However, investors have overlooked an unusual phenomenon. Before any major policy is introduced, it will be fully implemented after a pilot test. However, the circuit breaker was directly implemented without any pilot test.

In fact, when the circuit breaker policy was introduced, it was not that no institutions questioned it, but it was ignored by the market. When the circuit breaker appeared, this trust would turn into large-scale mistrust.

It has only been two months since the thousand-share price limit was suspended, and the fear in the hearts of investors has not been eliminated. It is very understandable for investors to magnify the panic and sell a large area out of liquidity concerns.

In fact, in the stock market crash in 2015, many high-level investors would avoid risks in time under the judgment of the trading system, but today's circuit breaker is sudden.

Whether it is ordinary investors or major professional institutions today, it is really unknown whether they can avoid it, and this should basically be an unwarranted disaster.

And for investors who are still highly leveraged, this kind of unwarranted disaster is likely to cause their accounts to die suddenly at any time.

The emergence of circuit breakers has made the uncertainty and trend of the stock market more blurred, and the uncertainty of the market has become more and more changeable. Under such circumstances, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ushered in the second trading day of the new year.

On January 1, since the call auction started, there was a large-scale panic in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the selling was infinitely enlarged. At 5:9, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 25 points, which was nearly 3196.65 points lower than yesterday. At the opening, it plummeted 100%.

"Damn it, it plummeted 100 points at the opening? It fell by more than 3 points. Is it going to blow again today?"

"Nimma, how can I play this? Withdraw, withdraw, this stock market is not suitable for me, and the road to return to capital is far away."

"This circuit breaker is much more brutal than the stock market crash. In a stock market crash, at least you still have a chance to cut your meat and run away. If this circuit breaker falls, you will directly suspend trading, and the next day will continue to fall. You can't even run away if you want to."

"Nimma, whoever came up with this sand sculpture thing? He bragged so much before. It's just a lie."

"It's better to be afraid, it's better to fall. Anyway, it's the same if the trading is suspended. Everyone can't escape. If you have the guts, let him fall for a month to see if I dare to buy the bottom."

"It's cold, the market is really cold, hey, why is it so difficult to speculate in individual stocks."

The market is so dangerous, if it is allowed to go on, it is very likely that there will be a circuit breaker for the third time. At this time, the national team, which has not participated in market transactions since September, will have to make another move.

As soon as the market opened at 9:30, the weight sector collectively went up, and the steel, insurance, and banking sectors collectively changed and began to make an upward move. The Shanghai Composite Index began to rise rapidly under the violent protection of the national team.

Under the violent protection of the national team, the decline in the Shanghai Composite Index narrowed to 5% in just the past 0.5 minutes, and the index pulled back above 3200 points. It was a thrilling stop, but the polarization on the market was very serious.

The weighted sectors led by banks, insurance, etc. were the largest gainers, but the theme stocks were very weak, and there were still many stocks in the small and medium-sized sectors that fell by the limit. On the whole, the market did not return to specific sentiment.

After yesterday's circuit breaker, investors' confidence was severely hit. At 9:45, the Shanghai Composite Index turned red and suddenly exceeded 3300 points. Five minutes later, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 5 points, an increase of more than 3328.14%.

Within 20 minutes of trading time, relying on the violent protection of the national team, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by more than 4%, the trading volume of heavyweight stocks was significantly enlarged several times, and Maotai rose by more than 1%.

After the crisis of another circuit breaker was lifted, the index opened and stabilized. Throughout the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated sideways, and closed at 3309.92 points at noon, an increase of 0.41%.

However, in a market whose confidence has been hit, relying solely on the national team's actions is not enough. Once the national team's financial support is lost, the index's diving will also emerge as the times require. At the opening of the afternoon, the Shanghai Composite Index will dive again on a large scale.

At 14:15, the Shanghai Composite Index once again fell below 3200 points to 3189.60 points, a drop as high as 3.2%.

At the end of the whole day's trading, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3287.71 points, down 0.26%. The K-line showed a false positive line. After yesterday's shocking market, the Shanghai Composite Index finally had a full trading day today.

On Wednesday, after the national team asked for the market yesterday, it made another large-scale purchase today. Coal, steel, cement, non-ferrous metals and other supply-side reform stocks were collectively launched, becoming an important force to promote the upward movement of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.

In the afternoon, as the Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise above 3300 points, the small and medium-sized stocks and the GEM index, which had been sluggish in the morning, finally couldn't bear it anymore and began to rebound sharply.

The rise of the small and medium-sized entrepreneurial sector led to a rebound in sentiment. The three major indexes all rose by more than 2% within a day, and the coal sector soared by more than 9% today. Nearly 30 stocks in the sector rose by the limit. None of the two cities fell, achieving a comprehensive Broad market.

Two consecutive positive lines brought the market sentiment back gradually; however, the trend of rice stocks in the evening was very bad. Affected by the slowdown of the global economy and the sharp drop in oil prices, rice stocks were under obvious pressure.

On the evening of the 6th, the Dow fell 1.47%, the S&P fell 1.31%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.14%. Affected by the decline in commodity stocks, the pan-European blue chip 300 index closed down 1.3%, and oil prices plummeted 5.6%.

Nvidia, which has always been stable, plummeted 4.13% today, and its stock price closed at 31.53 yuan. The major adjustment of Nvidia that Gu Junhao was looking forward to has finally arrived, and the funds in his hand are very hungry.

Global factors led to an increase in risk aversion in the market, and at the same time pushed up the price of gold. The price of gold rose by 1.3% in one day, which also put great pressure on A-shares, which rebounded for two consecutive trading days after the circuit breaker.

But at this time, before the opening of the morning market, the specific implementation plan for the registration system will be officially finalized this month, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has also officially released the specific operation plan for the registration system reform.

"I'm still too anxious, hey." After seeing the news, Gu Junhao also sighed.

The current market has not survived any setbacks. It has just rebounded for two days, and the global investment market is cold again. If you are so anxious, you still haven't learned the lesson of the first trading day.

You must know that in these two trading days, if the national team hadn't made a decisive move, there might have been continuous circuit breakers. At the same time, in the exchange rate market, the RMB exchange rate fell sharply.

However, it is not without good news. At the same time as the registration system, there are new rules for the online and offline issuance of new shares. There are new changes in the new rules, and it is no longer necessary to pay the subscription funds in full as before.

Finally, it came to the subscription method before the rebirth, and the payment was made after winning the lottery, which relieved the blood draw in the market to a certain extent.

On Thursday, January 1, due to the sharp drop in the external market, the fall in the RMB exchange rate, and the accelerated introduction of the registration system, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 7 points, which was nearly 3309.66 points lower, and the two cities were in a wait-and-see mood.

At the beginning of the transaction, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index quickly fell below 3300 points, down more than 2%. Although the national team still has some behaviors to protect the market today, it is clear that the big funds have lost the enthusiasm for buying in the previous two trading days.

The trading volume in the two cities shrunk severely, and the market sold off severely. Five minutes later, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 5 points, down 3267.41%. The rapid decline of the index further caused panic in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.

At 9:40, the Shanghai Composite Index reported at 3224.84 points, a drop of more than 4%. At 9:42, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3200 points to 3182.41 points, a drop of more than 5.34%.

In 12 minutes, there was no rebound of any nature. The panic selling of individual stock trading was very serious. The third circuit breaker came as promised. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets suspended trading for another 15 minutes, and the entire A-share market was shrouded in fear.

Maotai, which has always been strong, fell 3.37% to 205.03 yuan. Wuliangye also fell 3.39% to close at 25.68 yuan.

For ordinary investors, today’s trading is actually over. Affected by the rebound of small and medium-sized enterprises yesterday, there were not a few ordinary investors who rushed into small and medium-sized stocks. After the market, most institutions even advocated bottom-hunting again.

Tianqi Liye went straight to the limit at the opening. Before the circuit breaker, the stock price was quickly sealed above the limit, at 105.75 yuan, a drop of more than 176% compared to the highest price of [-] yuan.

Compared with the closing price of the previous year, within four trading days of the new year, Tianqi Liye fell by more than 33%, and most individual stocks adjusted more aggressively.

The atmosphere in the trading room is also extremely depressing, especially for the six newly recruited traders. As of today, Gu Junhao has not arranged any trading content, and just let you all take a good look at the market.

Moreover, within these few trading days, Gu Junhao even banned any traders from operating. This is really a strange career experience for new traders.

In the four days since I joined the company, I haven’t traded any stocks, and the entire Junshi Capital seems to have stagnated. There hasn’t been a transaction in these four trading days.

At the same time, Gu Junhao did not give any explanation. This kind of behavior made traders who are more familiar with Gu Junhao, including Wang Ruoyu, feel a little uncomfortable.

In fact, Gu Junhao has already selected specific targets for bottom-hunting, but the stocks he likes are all white horses with some weight. The decline in these few trading days is not very large. Even if the circuit breaker is suspended, it will enter an adjustment period.

On the contrary, Tianqi Liye’s continuous limit-down stocks here, and stocks whose stock prices have already been cut in half, can wait until after the circuit breaker to start buying bottoms. The lithium battery sector is also a hot sector this year. Tianqi Liye is one of the leaders. Very strong for a long time.

The reason why he didn't give any explanation to the traders was that there was really no way to explain this thing. Gu Junhao couldn't possibly say that after today's circuit breaker, the management would urgently stop the circuit breaker mechanism.

The first four trading days in 2016 were very impressive to Gu Junhao. The helplessness he felt after the trading suspension was still fresh in his memory.

Under the torment of investors, the two cities resumed trading again. Three minutes later, the Shanghai Composite Index once again triggered a second circuit breaker without any surprises, falling 3% to 7.32 points.

So far, after 15 minutes of trading, today's trading is over, all practitioners leave work early, and investors in the two cities are even more confused in fear.

Extremely boring investors post all kinds of jokes on the Internet.

"A brokerage friend dictated: When Lao Wang next door knocked on the door today, I was already at home."

"The happiest job in 2016 - brokerage; morning meeting at 8:30, tea making at 9 o'clock, pre-market preparation, bullet preparation at 9:20, 5% gap to open, cup washing at 9:30, toilet , unpack, get dressed, at 9:45, drop another 2%, turn off the computer, close the market and get off work.”

"Bring 3000 yuan to plan. I lost it in half an hour. The price took 15 minutes. I went to the bank downstairs to withdraw 5000 yuan. Before I could go upstairs, the door was closed."

"Women are going to marry traders."

On a normal trading day, they only traded for 15 minutes a day, which is quite strange; under the anger, helplessness and boredom, the leeks turned into jokers, wantonly venting their emotions.

In the evening, at the press conference of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the circuit breaker mechanism was urgently suspended. This mechanism, which was implemented for only four trading days, became the shortest stock market policy in the history of Chengguo Securities.

Within four trading days, the market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets evaporated by more than 5.6 trillion yuan, causing great harm to investors.

If the crash in June and August 2015 is called stock market crash 1.0 and 2.0, then the crash brought about by this policy can be called stock market crash 3.0.

The circuit breaker mechanism that was urgently called did not make investors feel any excitement at all, leaving only endless disappointment.

　I updated 9000 words today, and I will continue to add updates tomorrow, and I will return the chapters owed!
　　
　
(End of this chapter)