Rekindle 2003

Chapter 564 The Long Night: The Palace’s Scheming Meets Bayes’ Theorem

The tax control machine is sold under the leadership of a dedicated supervisor, although objectively, the company's image is definitely not pleasing to the enterprise.

But in any case, this is an effective corporate relationship building.

As long as the follow-up services keep up, the thoughtfulness makes others feel less resentful, the products are great, and with the tax control machine paving the way, they can continue to sell financial machines.

For enterprises, all enterprises do not like this kind of behavior that is similar to forced buying and selling, but under the national policy, when everyone is subjected to this kind of behavior, everyone will naturally accept it.

Otherwise, it would have been impossible for the previous tax control disks to be sold for so many years, and the company would still call every year to ask when the service fee would be paid, for fear that it would expire.

As for the product, everyone took a look and found that the configuration was actually very similar to the previous Yanhuang Guochao series, except that the graphics card was an integrated graphics card, and the appearance was not so flashy. The product design language was completely in the style of a business machine.

The sales of industrial machines are not in the traditional market and will not attract people's attention at all.

But this market, although cold, is not small.

After all, there are tens of millions of companies in China, of which 1300 million are value-added tax companies. This is a huge market.

And with the continuous development of the economy and the deepening of the tax game between the central and local governments, more and more industries will be included in the scope of value-added tax. The number of enterprises that need to use tax control machines will also grow rapidly, and the entire market is still expanding rapidly.

However, although the market prospects are good, some people still raised questions, "Chairman, we used to do ToC.

ToB sales require the professionalism, long-term nature of the sales staff and in-depth communication with customers. They face the overall needs of the other party's team and place more emphasis on the long-term value and scalability of the product or service.

We...to be honest, we fall short of this professional requirement. "

Everyone also reacted. They were indeed sales veterans in the computer industry, but they had been doing ToC business before, and their professional level was not up to the rapid response model of ToB.

These are completely requirements from two different dimensions.

To sell computers, you must understand computers, otherwise you won’t be able to sell them.

For sales to individual users, they need to understand some basic knowledge of computer hardware, software and related accessories. In the process of selling computer products, they need to introduce the advantages, functions and special functions of the product to customers, and understand the hardware and Software knowledge can better recommend suitable products to customers and meet customer needs.

However, in-depth technical knowledge is not required to respond to customers' immediate maintenance needs.

In other computer vendors, ToB is a specialized department with the cooperation of a team of hardware engineers. However, Yanhuang Branch does not have a dedicated team at this time.

Qing Yun shrugged his shoulders, "Everyone, the future sales staff of Yanhuang Group must have ToB business capabilities. This is the future development trend of the company."

This is not a requirement for one job to be versatile.

It is an essential quality for future Yanhuang sales personnel.

Qing Yun does not plan to establish a customer service department. In his opinion, talking about customer service without sales is very one-sided.

At present, many companies have problems with the positioning of customer service, and there is a disconnect between sales and customer service.

Although many companies have set up customer service departments, they have simply changed the name of the former after-sales department, without substantial improvement.

After completing a sale, many sales staff leave all the after-sales work to customer service (after-sales).

In fact, from the customer's perspective, when there is an after-sales problem, he still likes to contact the salesperson and hopes that the salesperson will help him solve the problem.

As for the sales staff, their most common approach is to tell customers the contact information of customer service (after-sales), and let the customers contact them themselves. During the subsequent service processing, they do not take the initiative to care about whether the specific service customers are satisfied. This actually violates principles of customer relationship maintenance.

“Close is not the end of the sales activity! Closing is not the end of the sales activity, but only the beginning of the relationship selling process!

At Yanhuang Group, I ask the sales staff not just to sell, but also to be the first ones responsible for customer service. Of course, I will also configure a dedicated team of hardware engineers later.

But you... can't reach school. Anyway, at the beginning, because of the sales of tax control machines, you had enough time to transform.

Everyone, I know that this is a painful transition for you. It is indeed an unpleasant thing to have to study again after so many years after graduation. This is also a great test for you, whether it is a one-time deal or a one-time deal. You should be able to tell the difference between thin water and long flow. "

The employees who were feeling a little uncomfortable at first could only nod helplessly after hearing this.

In fact, they all understand the truth, but it is really too tiring to do this.

All I can say is that this money... is not easy to earn, but wealth can only be found in danger.

Think about it, and your mentality will be corrected.

After all, Xiaoqing always gives generously.

……

Industry information, speaking skills training, etc. are not what Qing Yun, the chairman, should worry about.

After saying that, he took Guo Jing and left, leaving the rest to Liu Shiheng and the headquarters marketing department, as well as talking to the three old gangsters next door.

However, Emperor Yun's flash skill was interrupted as soon as he stepped out, and he stopped abruptly.

Qin Manman, who was eavesdropping with Zhang Li but had not had time to leave, bumped into him.

In his astonishment, Qin Manman didn't notice the flash of panic in Qing Yun's eyes.

Seeing Qin Manman and Zhang Li at the door, Emperor Yun's mind went blank.

This is...the forced confession has been completed, are you now ready to deal with yourself?

Mainly because before coming to Yanjing, Qin Manman had warned him that he had already played mahjong.

It's such a shame to bring one back in the blink of an eye.

But he was smart enough to come up with a Bagua array within a trap, and prepared to get through.

Now that Qin Manman's unreasonable high-profile attitude has broken the situation, it's like Zhuge Liang's Eight Formation Diagram being directly penetrated by Lu Bu. Where is the point of reasoning?

Instead, Zhang Li secretly gave Qing Yun a Wink while the two of them were separated.

Qing Yun was stunned for a moment.

At first, he didn't understand the meaning of Zhang Li's wink.

But there was no time for him to think about it. He raised Qin Manman in his arms with both hands and looked at her with a puzzled face.

After Qin Manman stood firm, he gave him a half-hearted smile.

She felt that everything Zhang Li said was reasonable, and all the situations before her were also very reasonable.

She couldn't find any loopholes.

but……

Why did this bad guy show signs of guilt before?

Did she see it wrong?

Qin Manman is a little unsure now.

She made the judgment based on her summary of Qing Yun's past actions and behavior. She could only say that it was correct with a high probability, but she could not guarantee that it would be correct every time.

Could it be that his guilty look in the conference room was really a coincidence?

There are too many coincidences in the past two days, right?

Everything is weird, but the interlocking logic makes it self-consistent and reasonable.

Although it is very reasonable and scientific.

However, when discussing algorithms with Su Caiwei recently, the two women noticed an interesting formula at the same time.

The pearl has been covered in dust for 200 years, but once it breaks out, it is the Bayesian formula that dominates the world.

When the theory of real variable functions introduced probability theory, the axiomatic basis of probability theory was formally established, and the classification was nothing more than classical probability and geometric probability.

But after the emergence of Bayesian formula, probability is divided into traditional probability and Bayesian probability.

Why is it classified like this?

Because probability is originally objective, but Bayesian, a guy, makes objective probability subjective.

Bayesian probability is a statistical method that calculates posterior probability through prior probability and observed data.

What is a prior probability?

A priori probability is an initial estimate of the probability of an event occurring before the data is observed.

This initial estimate is obtained based on past experience or domain knowledge, and then based on this subjective estimate, the prior probability is modified based on the observed data to obtain the posterior probability of the event.

This was shocking to the scientific community at the time, and everyone agreed that this was nonsense.

Therefore, it is no wonder that no one cared about the formula proposed in the 18th century. It was not until a special event 200 years later that Bayes' formula was recognized.

In May 1968, America's Scorpio nuclear submarine was suddenly sunk by a torpedo and a boomerang launched by itself in the Sea of ​​Azov in the Atlantic Ocean (...don't look at me, the truth is so outrageous). The submarine and 5 people on board None of the navy officers and soldiers were heard from.

Since the speed and direction of the submarine's sailing at the time of the crash, the magnitude of the impact of the explosion, and the direction of the submarine's rudder at the time of the explosion are all unknown quantities, even if you know where the submarine exploded, it is difficult to determine where the submarine wreckage was finally washed away by the sea water.

When the search and rescue team first started, people based on various assumptions and theories, and spent several months searching to find nothing.

If it was an ordinary submarine, forget it, but it happened to be a nuclear submarine, and the area where it sank was in front of Xiong Da's father's house.

In order to find the location of the Scorpion, America secretly mobilized a search force including many experts from home to go to the scene, including a mathematician named John Craven, whose title was "Chief Scientist of the Special Projects Department."

Faced with a clueless search, this mathematician with the same name as a movie star pulled Bayes' formula out of the old papers and used it as a doctor.

There is no way, if we don't solve it, Xiong Da's father will go crazy.

Craven convened experts from various fields such as mathematicians, submarine experts, and maritime search and rescue. He did not follow the usual thinking and asked team members to negotiate with each other to find a consensus. Instead, experts were asked to write various possible 'scripts', allowing them to guess in which direction the situation would develop based on their own knowledge and experience, and assess the possibility of each scenario.

Finally, Craven combined the opinions of various experts and obtained a probability map for the 20-mile ocean area.

The entire sea area is divided into many small grids, and each small grid has two probability values ​​p and q.

p is the probability that the submarine is lying in this grid.

q is the probability that the submarine is found if it is in this grid.

According to experience, the q probability value is mainly related to the water depth of the sea area. Searching for a wrecked submarine in the deep sea area is more likely to "miss the net".

If a grid is searched and no trace of a submarine is found, then according to Bayesian formula, the probability of the existence of a submarine in this grid will be reduced.

Every time you search, first select a grid with the highest probability of submarine existence in the entire area to search. If no submarine is found, the probability distribution map will be "shuffled" once, and the search vessel will sail to the new 'most suspicious grid'. The search continues like this until the Scorpion is found.

When the search first began, Navy personnel scoffed at Craven and his team's suggestion that the submarine was on the seafloor east of the explosion site.

But after several months of searching, they found nothing, so they had to follow Craven's suggestion and search on the west side of the explosion point according to the probability map.

After several searches, the submarine was found on the seabed southwest of the explosion point.

This method based on the Bayesian formula was successfully applied in many subsequent search and rescue operations, and has now become a common practice in search and rescue of maritime and air disasters.

The reason why Qin Manman and Su Caiwei paid attention to this Bayesian formula that "no one cares about them during their lifetime, but they are extremely valuable after their death" is because they discovered that they need to use algorithms to take pictures of black people in dark environments. , Bayesian formula works wonders.

Therefore, at this moment, Qin Manman couldn't help but think according to this model.

According to traditional probability, there is no solution.

But when Qin Manman substitutes the initial estimated prior probability of "Brother smelly may be lying" and then corrects it based on objective events, then all her doubts are solved. What she gets is the posterior probability of "brother smelly is lying". Probability.

But Qin Manman is still not sure, because Bayes' formula is a structure in the Markov category. In general probability theory, Bayes' formula may not be true, because general probability theory allows the sum of probabilities not to be equal to 1, that is, non-standard probability distribution may occur.

In other words, there is a possibility that it does not hold true.

Therefore, Qin Manman decided to cheat!

Break through ten chapters with one force!

After letting out a smile, Qin Manman closed the door and asked with a cold face, "Has everything been resolved?"

Emperor Yun nodded quickly.

Qin Manman snorted coldly, gave him a look that made him understand, then turned around and took Zhang Li's arm and walked towards the meeting room.

She found that Zhang Li's presence at this moment was very useful.

With Zhang Li in her hands, she could continue to observe and verify it calmly.

If Qing Yun lied, he would definitely have something in his heart and expose more flaws.

Although it may not change the fact that Zhang Li entered the game, it can definitely kill two birds with one stone, defeating the stinky brother with a cat-like heart, and Zhang Li, the little bitch who dared to deceive her!

If Qing Yun didn't lie.

It means that she will definitely be punished by her stinky brother tonight.

So... Zhang Li is aside, this bad guy won't mess around.

The worst thing... She said that she and Zhang Li hit it off immediately, and they wanted to talk all night long, waiting for Master Qianying to bear his anger.

Zhang Li, who was held by Qin Manman's arm with a smile, followed her forward docilely, like a pair of good best friends, not daring to look back at the bad man's face.

Emperor Yun, who was standing on the spot, was suddenly stunned, and even his heart skipped a few beats.

Damn it?

Qing Yun, who was standing still, was not stunned because of Qin Manman's smiling face.

It's because Qin Manman and Zhang Li look like best friends.

He knew very well that this was Qin Manman's manipulation and beating on him.

What puzzled him was that Qin Manman didn't ask Zhang Li the truth.

Yes, he was very sure that Zhang Li successfully deceived Qin Manman.

It wasn't Zhang Li who reminded him of Wink just now.

It's Qin Manman's behavior pattern at the moment.

After two lifetimes, Emperor Yun understood her character better than Qin Manman.

Is Qin Manman polite?

She is very polite and will take the initiative to say hello and thank anyone she sees. She does not have the arrogance that a little princess should have.

Is Qin Manman friendly?

She is very friendly. In her previous life, she could squat down and use a clean handkerchief to wipe the dirt off the face of a child in his village with a gentle expression.

At first glance, she looks like a well-educated young lady.

However, this politeness and friendliness come from a higher-dimensional position.

Just like the chairman is always kind and approachable to the grassroots employees, and just like the big professor will not argue with Xiao Huangmao.

Debate means that what you said is right, very reasonable and insightful, but I have limited knowledge and am ashamed to say that I cannot match it.

Hidden under that well-educated politeness and friendliness is Qin Manman's natural pride.

That's something engraved in her bones.

Her opponent must be of the same style as her before she can regard her as her opponent and then defeat her with all her strength.

For this reason, she could even do something like asking him to rescue Tang Qianying during the graduation season.

Therefore, there are limits to her politeness and kindness.

Polite distance, friendly distance.

In the same dimension, she is so polite! Kiss asshole!

Her bad character will always suppress you. In the words of the next ten years, it will be an elegant Versailles.

Just like the two people in the previous life, she was strong and he was weak, so she always suppressed him because she wanted her husband to succeed.

Of course, this comes more from her inner reluctance.

In this life, Tang Qianying was forced to understand Qin Manman.

Because Qin Manman disrupted her original plan by taking action in advance without following the routine, and also because he was too strong in this life.

Therefore, in front of Qin Manman, the young Master Qianying was very well-behaved, unlike her in her previous life when she was a young and mature woman who dared to stand up to him.

At this time, the situation before Emperor Yun was clear.

Evidence by contradiction.

Assuming that Qin Manman has interrogated the relationship between the two and Zhang Li truthfully confessed, then Qin Manman will regard Zhang Li as a person of the same dimension. How could she and Zhang Li behave like best friends?

According to her character, she would definitely set the rules for a lady in front of Zhang Li just like she suppressed Tang Qianying before.

Still holding arms?

It's impossible to walk side by side.

Therefore, the proposition does not hold.

So, another fact emerged.

Zhang Li actually deceived Qin Manman! ! !

This discovery shocked Emperor Yun greatly.

Sure enough, none of his women are simple masters.

Needless to say, Qin Manman.

Chen Yue's own conditions are completely limited. After all, in the previous life, this girl was the master who almost got into the center.

Su Caiwei, there is no one who doesn't care about mathematics.

As for Lord Qianying...

hum!

In his previous life, he was the one who faced off against Qin Manman. Qin Manman failed to prevent Tang Qianying from running away with the ball, and then prepared to bring the baby back to the king.

He originally thought the easiest one was Zhang Li...

……

(End of this chapter)