Rekindle 2003

Chapter 550 Green Plum Boiled Wine and Discussing Heroes (7)

The great Qiangzi's remembrance of the past ended before it even began.

Because Qing Yun continued talking after picking up another cup, he quickly put down the cup and listened carefully while recording.

Not just the key points, but the full text.

He felt that he not only needed to read and recite everything Qing Yun said today, but he also needed to take it out from time to time, re-read, think and understand again.

“The first taboo in the integration period is isolated competition.

At this stage, people who commit this taboo actually have the same idea, 'If I don't hit others, others shouldn't hit me either'.

This is called wishful thinking. How could such a good thing happen?

The humiliation in our country's history has proven countless times that if you don't hit others, someone will definitely hit you, because you, the one who doesn't attack, will be hit.

The second big taboo is to stop moving forward.

People who commit this taboo are those who are flat in the face of competition and do whatever they want. But this is also impossible.

As the industry consolidates, at least 80% of people will fail, otherwise the industry will not be good. "

Having said this, Qing Yun smiled, took out his BlackBerry, opened an email, and handed the phone to the Great Qiangzi.

Niu Qiangdong took it and took a look at the attendance confirmation letter from the organizing committee of the '2003 China IT Industry Summit Forum'.

He glanced at Qing Yun doubtfully, feeling a little baffled.

Da Qiangzi did not think that the young man in front of him was a superficial person. More importantly, Qing Yun did not need to show his superiority in front of him.

Qing Yun took the phone back and smiled coldly at the confirmation letter for attending the industry peak forum.

This made Niu Qiangdong even more confused.

In his view, Qing Yun's invitation to such a forum is the industry's "advance recognition" of him.

After all, Yanhuang didn't have any great achievements at the moment.

Others' praise for Qing Yun is their praise for his amazing capital operation ability.

Anyway, if it were him, he would be very happy.

Qing Yun shook his head, put the phone aside, and said with a weird look, "Actually, sometimes you will find that there is a very funny scene in this world."

He pointed to his mobile phone, "Industry forums are not new. Many industries have them. A conference venue is full of partners in the industry.

Everyone sat together, discussing the future of the industry, listening to the big bosses' speeches, and studying together where the industry would go. "

Liu Qiangdong's neck twitched.

He has not participated in industry forums.

Although it was still possible for him to make tape recorders that accounted for half of the country, after all, it was an insignificant segmented industry. In Mr. Xiaoqing's words, it was a segmented industry with an extremely low ceiling.

Just when Da Qiangzi felt sour in his heart, the mockery on Qing Yun's lips became more and more obvious, "Then everyone complained, 'The industry is so difficult now! Business is so difficult!'"

Niu Qiangdong heard something about it.

As expected, Qing Yun chuckled, "This is just a completely meaningless topic. How can this industry have a future? Lao Niu, this industry has a future when industry forums can no longer be held.

The reason why this industry has no future is because hundreds of people in the conference venue are all working in the same industry.

They are still talking about the future, but the future actually has nothing to do with them. When 80% of the companies in the conference hall died, the future of the industry appeared. "

This counter-intuitive statement made Niu Qiangdong stunned for a moment, and then laughed out loud.

As expected of Mr. Xiaoqing.

What a poisonous mouth.

But hit the nail on the head.

The cold-faced smiler Qing Xiaoyun spread his hands and said, "So, during the integration period, 80% of the companies must be eliminated. At this stage, the big fish eats the small fish, and the fast fish eats the slow fish."

Niu Qiangdong stopped smiling, but at this moment Emperor Yun sighed again and patted his shoulder, "Old Niu, we Chinese people have a very good quality, that is, we are better able to fight protracted wars.

I have analyzed many companies in America. At every stage I mentioned, America is very fast and will end in a few years, because many entrepreneurs in their country will soon give up.

When they enter the integration period, they find that they are unable to win. They think, 'Since I can't defeat others, I will be out and do other things.'

If they can't beat it, they won't fight, or even if they can't beat it, they will join. They will give the enterprise to whoever deserves it, and they will make money anyway.

But we Chinese are not like this, especially the older generation. They think that we must endure until the end! I don’t believe I can’t survive you! '

Therefore, our integration period is extremely long. "

Having said this, he looked at the thoughtful Niu Qiangdong intently, "So, Lao Niu, during the integration period, fight to the death. Don't hesitate. Take life and death lightly. If you don't accept it, just do it! Don't give the enemy anything to endure. If you get the chance, kill him with your first strike."

Niu Qiangdong completely understood and nodded heavily.

“The third taboo during the integration period is to passively wait for the opportunity for the industry to pick up.

Many entrepreneurs cannot accept the status quo of changes in industry fundamentals, thinking that this is a so-called annual or stage problem, and ignore the essential laws of industry cycle evolution.

Under such circumstances, to be frank, having a mentality of 'remaining constant in response to ever-changing circumstances' is like being a deserter in a war, and it is difficult to survive in the end.

The fourth taboo is to go it alone and fight against the industry on your own.

The biggest opportunity during the industry consolidation period is 'integration', which is to either integrate others or be integrated.

Only by merging similar items and achieving economies of scale can we move forward during the integration period.

However, many entrepreneurs have a passive mentality and actions, neither actively looking for integration opportunities nor actively looking for integration opportunities to join a stronger team.

Unless such companies have extremely strong barriers, they will be gradually marginalized and eventually become eliminated during the integration period. "

In fact, Qing Yun really wants to say that in China, entrepreneurs, especially the older generation of entrepreneurs, really regard the enterprise as an enterprise, holding on to their feelings for the enterprise. Although they clearly have no core capabilities, they have a lucky mentality and hope to survive to the end. .

With the mentality of persisting until the end, entrepreneurs will only suffer more and more, wasting opportunities and time.

A company is actually a commodity. But Qing Yun couldn't say this. This was the final thought, and it was not suitable for his business philosophy.

It can only be said that if his next generation cannot support the Yanhuang Group, he will go out on his own, whether it is dedicating this product to the country or disposing it to others.

After saying this, Qingyun chewed a few more peanuts after a glass of wine.

Niu Qiangdong could clearly feel that Mr. Xiaoqing's expression became much more relaxed.

He also knows that once the integration period is completed, there will naturally be a bright future.

A smile broke out on Qing Yun's face, "The integration period has entered the second half, more and more companies are out of business, and the market is beginning to see signs of 'clearing'.

Some companies have closed down and left due to constant market capture;

Some companies have been integrated and merged into a leading company to develop together and become bigger and stronger;

Some companies have transformed and changed careers, and their original businesses have gradually declined;

Some companies failed to recover because the entrepreneurs were old and had no successors.

No matter what the reason is, it is ultimately the result of survival of the fittest. The market is gradually concentrated in the hands of a few companies, and 80% of the market is obtained by 20% of the companies.

These companies are getting bigger and bigger, and their market status and influence are getting higher and higher.

Eventually, the efficiency of the integrated industry increased, the threshold for integrating the industry increased, and the market entered the fifth stage of industry development, the Nirvana period.

Phoenix Nirvana is a perfect description of this cycle.

The enterprise competition at this stage is actually "the one who remains is king". The most regrettable group of entrepreneurs are those who quit at the end of the integration period and on the eve of the nirvana period. They fell in the darkness before dawn. "

At this stage, the price war begins to disappear, and manufacturers enter the range of rational profits. Market demand has not decreased, and supply has decreased. The remaining people in the industry, everyone has strong enough customers, products and barriers, and they all share it together. Huge industry market.

There is only one major taboo in this stage: falling on the eve of the Nirvana stage.

There are too many examples of this kind. In the later stage of the integration period, many companies are really unable to bear the fierce price war. Frankly speaking, entrepreneurs in this period are very easy to fight.

However, if you want to hand over the gun, you have to hand it in early, don't wait until this time to hand over the gun.

The value of a company is different in different cycles.

In the initial stage, what do you expect? What is being calculated is the future. At this time, the valuation of the company has no anchor point and depends on how satisfied the investor is with the entrepreneur. For example, I will invest in you.

What do you think of the growth stage and the maturity stage? The calculation is about PS accounts and PE accounts. How much is your company worth? Multiply sales by 5 times PS. If you sell 10 million, it will be worth billion.

why?

Because you have a lot of room for growth. Your profit is 2000 million, multiplied by 20 times PE, it is worth 4 million, because I think you can double it again and again. Calculating accounts in the growth and maturity stages means calculating incremental accounts.

When the integration period comes, you will find that the logic of settling accounts has changed again.

Because the entire industry is losing money, or there is no profit, what kind of accounting should this be?

When calculating PB accounts, calculate how much a company's net assets are worth.

If you have net assets of 7000 million on your books, then the company is only worth 7000 million because you have no ability to create profits.

So, giving you 7000 million to buy your company is not bad.

You may even find that when the vast majority of people collapse at the last moment, they sell their businesses at low prices or even break their bones.

This is true for Shi Yuzhu, as well as for Song Ruhua, tens of billions of TOP..."

Qing Yun shrugged his shoulders. Although there were many reasons for TOP's collapse, the fundamental point was that in terms of its main business, TOP fell behind in the era of great competition.

Niu Qiangdong also understands this truth and does not insist on words. Conversation is not a forum. Sometimes the meaning is enough.

"When they exit with cash, the nirvana period reaches its peak, that is, the fruit-picking stage has completely arrived."

Qing Yun said calmly, "Since then, a new good era has arrived, and the industry has entered the sixth stage of the development cycle, the harvest period.

At this stage, the remaining people share the vast majority of the market. The leader of East China and the leader of South China are fighting back and forth. Everyone is at peace. You can't defeat me, and I can't defeat you. Everyone occupies their own side and lives in peace.

Of course, there is another situation where you don’t dare to kill me, and I don’t dare to kill you. This must be combined with the general trend of national economic development.

When the country focuses on developing the domestic economy, you must have opponents. When the country launches national economic competition, the country will help you beat your opponents to death, or help your opponents beat you to death.

In this cycle, the 'survivors' became the 'winners', and the entire industry entered a stage of long-term stability and stability.

For example, the feed industry, where my father-in-law made his fortune, was originally a field where hundreds of schools of thought contended, but now there are less than five brands left. After a long period of integration and nirvana, it has successively entered a harvest period of steady development.

The stable market structure, stable customers, and stable upstream and downstream relationships have allowed these leading companies to achieve the same level of profits as in the growth period. However, after rounds of survival of the fittest, the scale of these companies has become dozens of times or even higher than before. Hundreds of times.

As you can imagine, these companies can easily recover all the large 'losses' incurred during the past integration and nirvana periods, and the company has finally ushered in its most wonderful state of development - large-scale profitability.

This is the greatest reward for companies that have crossed the cycle and the greatest reward for professional entrepreneurs in the industry.

In a sense, they are the last industry kings and the ultimate winners of this 'competition to seize Antarctica'.

We look at many of the world's top 500 companies, including Wal-Mart, Ford, Sansan, Shell, LV Group, Kyocera, Pfizer and other very large companies in various industries. In fact, they are all the final nirvana and gainers in rounds of fighting.

Many large companies have been hoarding profits for decades. They are far from the revenue and strength we see now. They are as rich as the country, which is amazing!

At this time, the big taboo is to stop making progress as a vested interest, because the development of the industry has not stopped. "

Qing Yun nodded at the table, "I said that there are seven stages in the development cycle of the industry. If progress is stopped in the sixth stage, then in the seventh stage, the company will die without a burial place, and the death will be worse than the previous six stages. This stage is even faster and more brutal.

As the industry enters a stable harvest period, a new force begins to brew.

New technological innovations and business model innovations have begun to develop. Essentially, with the progress of society, end customers have put forward higher demands - faster, more convenient, more comfortable...

This is a new driving force for change in an industry.

On this basis, a new industry will be born on the original industry, or the original industry will undergo dual disruptive changes in industry logic and business logic.

This means new opportunities are brewing.

New technologies, increases in per capita GDP, end-user profiles, national infrastructure construction...

These will lead to major changes in the underlying logic of the entire social economy, which will give rise to new tracks in the same industry, or even another new industry. "

……

(End of this chapter)