The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide.

Chapter 359 Two-Line Parallelism
When you don't know whether what others give you is honey or a trap, then choosing to drag the person who provides you with this opportunity into the water is the best solution.

This opportunity is provided to you by the other party, which also means that he has more information in his hands. Even if you pay a small price, you have to drag him into the water and rely on the information he provides to make more accurate decisions.

Zhou Xin’s idea is to let the Federal Reserve enter the market and complete the three-party transaction between the Federal Reserve, NewPay and Merrill Lynch.

Merrill Lynch is asking for US$1000 billion, and NewPay will definitely not be able to pay in cash. It will definitely need a credit line from the Federal Reserve to help NewPay complete the transaction.

NewPay also needs to face competition from Bank of America, needs to judge whether Merrill Lynch is arsenic wrapped in honey, and needs to successfully complete this acquisition.

So instead of asking for money from the Federal Reserve, it is better to make a deal and sell NewPay's shares to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will directly provide cash. After the Federal Reserve becomes a shareholder of NewPay, the risks are shared.

Of course, the Federal Reserve will not end so easily. As the core management agency of the federal finances, although there are private shareholders behind it, it cannot personally end the holding of NewPay shares.

The Federal Reserve is not good, but FIDC is. The full name of FIDC is the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. During this financial crisis, FIDC took over a large number of bankrupt banks. Like the Federal Reserve, it is also a financial institution controlled by the federal government. It is more flexible than the Federal Reserve. high.

If the Federal Reserve is equivalent to China's central bank, then FIDC has functions similar to China's social security fund.

"We need to communicate with the Federal Reserve and let FIDC participate. FIDC will provide funds, NewPay will acquire Merrill Lynch, and NewPay will sell some shares to FIDC. We need to turn the two-party agreement into a tripartite agreement.

Let the Federal Reserve, which originally only provided funds and assumed financing functions, participate in this transaction as a risk-sharing party. "

Zhou Xin's strategic plan is the same as when he brought Bill Gates back with him when he came back from Amerikan. It uses a risk-sharing strategy to reduce the probability of accidents.

"If the Fed is willing to do this, then the deal can be done. If they are not willing, then there is no need for us to talk to Merrill Lynch."

Zhou Xin knew very well that this point in time was a rare window of time to acquire large financial institutions.

After 2016, Chinese companies will not even think about acquiring Americen’s core financial institutions.

When Zhou Xin worked in Washington, he clearly remembered what a senior Chinese diplomat said to him:

"Now is the dark iron era for the relationship between China and America.

Many people say that the period from 2003 to 2008 before the Yanjing Olympics was the golden age of relations between the two countries. I don’t think so. I think this is just the silver age. The real golden age will not be until after 2007, from 2007 to 2011. Time is the golden age.

Because during this period, Amerikan was seeking help from China, and their large-scale water release required China's cooperation, otherwise they would not be able to control domestic inflation.

Can you imagine that during this period, the Federal Reserve could agree to Huaguo Investment Group’s acquisition of 10% of Morgan Stanley’s shares?

Now, it would be a complete fantasy, and those 10% stocks not only enjoy dividend rights, but also voting rights, which are not diluted.

Don't even think about it now. "

In addition, some Wall Street financial practitioners complained to him: "Before 08, it was the heyday of Wall Street. Wall Street could compete with Washington, but the Federal Reserve and the Federal Treasury did not have as much power as they do now.

At that time, mergers, acquisitions, and spin-offs between large financial institutions were much easier. "

This is because after 2010, federal financial supervision has become increasingly strict. Financial institutions with total assets of more than 100 billion US dollars need to prepay decomposition funds before the company fails, is acquired, or split up. The Federal Reserve has the ability to guide any company. The power of a large financial holding company to sell or transfer assets.

The qualifier here is any.

Washington has been given unprecedented power in the financial sector, and Wall Street has been greatly weakened.

The upstart Wall Street, a heretic from Silicon Valley, competes with Bank of America, the established financial institution, for Merrill Lynch, the largest brokerage in the United States. This is full of gimmicks.

After Peter Thiel's public admission, Merrill Lynch continued to rise, and the market gave a very positive signal.

Domestic media in China are also discussing this matter frequently. The dynamics of America's financial sector are related to when the global economy will stabilize. Both NewPay and Merrill Lynch are well-known companies. This potential The acquisition case is very topical.

"Damn it, that's Merrill Lynch. The day when a Chinese company actually acquires Merrill Lynch, I never dreamed of it before. This is much better than Lenovo's acquisition of ThinkPad."

"Pull it down. When did NewPay become a Chinese company? Isn't NewPay a pure Silicon Valley company? You can't say that companies founded by Chinese are Chinese companies."

"The new president still has control over NewPay. NewPay is expanding its business around the world. Why can't we say it is a Chinese company?"

"The global headquarters is in Silicon Valley, regulated by the American government, and its main business is also abroad. Except that Zhou Xin is Chinese, I don't see any trace of NewPay being a Chinese company."

Things went wrong all of a sudden on social media. What was originally a discussion about NewPay’s possible acquisition of Merrill Lynch turned into a discussion about whether NewPay is a Chinese company.

After successfully hosting the Olympic Games, China no longer needs such events to build national self-esteem from a civil level, which is completely different from the atmosphere ten years ago.

Everyone will only think that it is great that a company founded by Chinese people can acquire the century-old Merrill Lynch. The media will associate this matter with national pride, but for specific individuals, this feeling is unlikely.

This is just like the market value of Zoom soared after Americen went public 20 years later. No one felt anything because it was too far away from individuals. No matter how well Zoom develops, it will not have any positive impact on individuals.

And like Huawei's chip technology breakthrough, ordinary individuals can also enjoy the benefits brought by technological breakthroughs and industrial chain upgrades.

The homeless people in the Amerikan slums will proudly puff up their chests when they think of Amerikan's 11 aircraft carriers, because they know that these aircraft carriers are the bottom layer of their minds and they can realize that these aircraft carriers ensure that they can smoothly receive relief funds and free of charge. Food is the key.

But they will definitely not be proud of the luxurious villas of the rich in Beverly Hills, because no matter how luxuriously decorated it is, it has nothing to do with them.

“I generally agree with these contents. The end of the financial crisis is far away in sight, and the appropriate release of water and the work-for-relief model is conducive to stabilizing employment and maintaining growth.

China's debt ratio from local to central levels is very low. According to China's economic growth trend in the past, increasing leverage appropriately will not affect China's financial stability. "Peter Thiel and Warren Johnson were in Washington to acquire Merrill Lynch, while Zhou Xin was in Yanjing to attend a closed-door meeting on financial work held by relevant parties.

After the Gwy executive meeting ended not long ago, Yanjing announced 10 measures to stimulate economic growth, which is the four trillion plan that will be talked about by future generations. However, at the press conference after the Gwy ended, the spokesperson only announced the measures and did not Tell me the specific amount.

Those 10 measures were also widely discussed at Shenhai's financial summit. Everyone believed that they were necessary and feasible solutions. They were also considered by the financial media to be China's monetary policy, moving from "tight" to "appropriately loose." major turnaround.

The measures are in place, but the specific implementation is still a castle in the air. Yanjing hopes to find some experts in the economic field to come to Yanjing to hold closed-door meetings to discuss the measures.

As one of the leading entrepreneurs in the country, Zhou Xin was naturally invited.

“I have the following suggestions. When it comes to such a large amount of capital allocation, the functions of financial institutions should be used as much as possible, and banks can be responsible for specifically releasing the water.

At the same time, make good use of UnionPay’s data supervision role to improve the utilization rate of funds. You can use Internet means for supervision as much as possible to prevent systemic risks.

Previously, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank took the lead in establishing UnionPay. Once large-scale shantytown renovations are carried out in the future, combined with fiscal releases, it will inevitably promote the development of real estate and increase housing prices.

Not only are financial companies subject to systemic risks, the real estate industry with high turnover and high growth has a probability of similar risks that is not much lower than that of the financial industry, and the scale is even greater.

Supervision in this area must keep up. "

Zhou Xin knew that Yanjing would find this suggestion very good. It would be difficult to rely on UnionPay to supervise local state-owned enterprises, but they would have no psychological pressure if they supervise these real estate companies.

Maybe it will go astray later on, but it will have some effect.

"Let me give you a simple example. Nowadays, many real estate companies don't like to issue invoices to construction parties. For example, if you pay 100 million in cash, I will give you a 100 million ticket. The ticket will be redeemed after one year, and the coupon interest will be 8 points.

Although there was a bill law in the country in 2005, the registration of bills has always been very scattered. China Agricultural and Industrial Construction each has its own bill center, and then there are local bill trading centers, such as the Chongqing Stock Exchange and other central enterprise transactions. The platform also has the function of bill registration.

The bill market is fragmented among different regions and institutions, with low transparency. Market participants cannot fully connect with each other, and information is seriously asymmetric.

In this case, the central bank can establish a bill exchange to centrally manage bills and give full play to the functions of the bill market.

After establishing a unified management platform, the acceptance status can be tracked. Once any company refuses to accept a bill, it can be found on the unified management platform, which can greatly increase the company's illegal costs. "

Real estate, a high-turnover industry, prefers to use bills for payment, because it means their cash can be reserved for greater use.

And the construction party can enjoy 8 points of interest a year, which is also very good.

There is no problem in doing this when the market is growing at a rapid pace, and relevant parties upstream and downstream of the entire chain can benefit. The problem is that once real estate growth stops and companies have difficulties in capital turnover, bills will face the risk of non-acceptance.

No one wanted Evergrande's commercial bills at a 1% discount. Not to mention the interest, all the principal was lost.

"I agree with Mr. Xin. Since last year, there have been some cases in China where companies used their own money to invest in overseas hedge funds, resulting in a broken capital chain and inability to accept bills. The problem is that their bills were in the Yangtze River Delta region. The acceptance information is registered with the exchange and can only be found in the Yangtze River Delta. Some holders took advantage of the information gap to take these unacceptable bills to the Sichuan and Chongqing areas for pledge loans.

The extreme asymmetry of information caused the entire bill market to fall into disarray, failing to fully play its role in financing and stimulating the economy. ”said the experts at the meeting.

Zhou Xin did not say that there will be a ticket exchange in the future, but that will have to wait until ten years later.

"Yes, I have always felt that it is necessary to release water, and the central government needs to stand up and give the market confidence, but it is even more necessary to establish and improve the entire financial system and mechanism.

It is about our long-term financial market health and stability.

Now is the Internet era. Only by giving full play to information technology and using information technology for supervision can we let the released water go where it really wants to go. "

The unhealthy point of Amerikan's financial market is that the bubble is too big. This bubble was deliberately caused by the Federal Reserve. The unhealthy point of China's financial market is that the level of employees is too low and there is a lack of supervision and punishment measures.

“I just mentioned the financing role of the bill market as an example, and the financing role of the securities trading market is more important. It is a larger financing platform than bills and can better help the development of the real industry.

Our current securities market is facing big problems. I think the biggest problem is that the cost of violating the law in the operation of the capital market is too low, terrifyingly low. The maximum penalty of 50 is completely inconsistent with the actual situation. "This is also a point that has been criticized for a long time.

Why hasn't it been changed? To put it bluntly, it can be done like this. Dig out the radish and bring out the mud. Someone may be doing something wrong later.

Catching the rats in the granary is the most difficult.

But Zhou Xin didn't care. He had no say in this kind of closed-door meeting, but he still wanted to say that he was still walking on thin ice and cautious in his current position, so what's the point?

“The last thing is to give investors confidence and build China’s securities trading market into a market that truly tests corporate operations, corporate development and corporate profitability. I think the current delisting mechanism has big problems.

The conditions for companies to go public are strict, and the conditions for delisting are even more demanding. They can go up or down. This is a very important reason why monster stocks appear frequently and chaos abounds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.

I just gave two simple examples to illustrate that we need to improve the financial mechanism.

I think these ten specific items are very practical and have no problems. "

The reason why Zhou Xin has no objection to infrastructure construction is that at this point in time, the level of domestic infrastructure construction is not high, and infrastructure construction has not yet reached the point where the marginal effects will diminish in future generations.

After Zhou Xin finished speaking, the financial experts at the meeting broke out in a cold sweat. If Zhou Xin's suggestions were followed, the jobs of those working in the financial circle would be affected.

　I didn’t get back until after nine o’clock last night. I couldn’t write any more and fell asleep immediately. I’ll make up for the debt over the weekend!
　　
　
(End of this chapter)