The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide.

Chapter 337 Trading
Henry Paulson couldn't believe it. To be honest, it is not difficult for institutions with good hedge funds to achieve an average annual return of more than 12%.

Many organizations can do this.

As for the scale of hundreds of billions, some people can achieve an income of more than 12%.

The simple truth is that taking Berkshire as an example, Buffett's asset management company does not conduct public fundraising, but only invests in the stock and foreign exchange markets, with an average annual return of 21.46%.

At this point in time, Berkshire’s stock assets alone exceed $800 billion.

Very exaggerated annualized rate of return, right? Such a long period of time, such a high rate of return and stable performance.

但是与此同时，从1965年到2006年这42年间，标普500指数成分股的平均股价年均增长率同样高达10.4%。

In other words, with a little bit of level, if you insist on holding the S&P 500, you can achieve an annualized return of more than 10%.

Bernard Madoff is the former chairman of Nasdaq and served as the chairman of Nasdaq during the most glorious decade of the Internet from 1991 to 2001. Under his leadership, Nasdaq became a capable company. A stock exchange that rivals the New York Stock Exchange.

Madoff had proven his investment abilities before becoming chairman of Nasdaq.

When Henry Paulson was the CEO of Goldman Sachs, he had many dealings with Madoff. He couldn't believe that Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme.

Such a well-known big shot is even better than him based on his resume alone. Even if the deal fails, it is better than no deal at all.

If the transaction fails and then plays a Ponzi scheme, it can be said that you believe in your own ability too much. After the transaction fails, you want to continue to maintain your past reputation, so you start to play the tricks of the Ponzi scheme.

But a federal investigation found that Madoff was a fraud from the beginning and that his hedge fund did not conduct a single transaction until 2003.

In other words, Madoff had the intention to deceive all investors from the beginning. This is terrible and very illogical.

Based on the other party's experience in presiding over a series of listing cases for Cisco, Baidu, Apple, etc., insider trading alone is enough to maintain an annual income of more than 10% for a tens of billions fund.

In the original time and space, Madoff was finally federally indicted for money laundering. There was evidence that he helped some criminal gangs in South America launder money, but this part was insignificant in the total funds he raised.

The most serious thing about Madoff was the Ponzi scheme.

To be honest, the financial crisis is even a good thing for Amerika to a certain extent.

Because financial crises and capital market bubbles are like the ebb and flow of tides, they are natural laws that help make the global system built by capitalism healthier and help Wall Street harvest the world's high-quality goods with every financial crisis. assets.

But if it is a limited financial crisis or an excessively severe financial crisis, America and Wall Street capitalists will also suffer heavy losses.

In July this year, when Fannie Mae went bankrupt, members of the Federal Reserve Board began to meet frequently, and Henry Paulson participated in most of these meetings. The meetings were very pessimistic because the crisis was at risk of getting out of control.

Henry Paulson already regrets coming to Washington to take this position. Wouldn't it be nice to continue waiting for the crisis to come at Goldman Sachs and harvest the world?

An even heavier blow was Madoff's Ponzi scheme. Due to the fermentation of Internet finance, Madoff's hedge fund affected too many of America's middle class, creating a $6000 billion hole.

This would cause a global financial tsunami. As for the horrific consequences, Henry didn't want to think about it.

The feds already had Madoff under control, but they were still investigating, and Zhou Xin made things worse.

Henry Paulson did not call to ask Zhou Xin to withdraw his Weibo or delete the Weibo directly. This is an act of deception, and a country like America, which is good at manipulating public opinion, will obviously not do this.

“Henry, what do you need me to do with the Federation?
In the current era of economic globalization, we are all in the same boat, and no one will fare well if the boat takes on water. "

Zhou Xin, who has almost transferred his assets and is even shorting the capital market and buying a large amount of gold, said lightly.

Henry said, "Newman, we should make the news about Madoff's arrest public tomorrow.

This can no longer be delayed, and at the same time we need iconic events to divert the attention of the media and the public.

A landmark event is needed to awaken the confidence of investors and investment institutions in the capital market. We hope to list NewPay. "

Henry Paulson didn’t finish. NewPay’s listing was on the one hand, and Robin’s arrest on the other.

As a deep participant in the Madoff case, Robin's identity as a Chinese can more easily be used to offset public grievances.

Of course, arresting Zhou Xin can make things worse, but the problem is that NewPay does not sell these products, and Zhou Xin has returned to China.

Washington plans to arrest Madoff and Robin, as well as some individuals who are deeply involved in this matter and have obvious criminal facts, and then split Baidu into Baidu and Google.

This is also a means for Washington and Wall Street to join forces to suppress the upstarts of Silicon Valley and the Internet. There is no better time than this.

The other is to hope that NewPay will be listed on the market. With Madoff's thunder, of all the electronic payment software that are somewhat famous on the market, only NewPay has not been involved.

As we all know, NewPay is here to stay. NewPay will become the de facto monopoly in the electronic payment field globally, and other electronic payment software will never have a chance.

WeChat Pay can only be used as a supplement and is unlikely to become the main payment software.

Therefore, for the top unicorns such as NewPay, Amerikan's consortium can't wait to launch it on the market.

It can distract attention, and for such a high-quality asset to be listed at this time, this will be the most appropriate price.

There are no good companies and bad companies in the stock market, only good prices and bad prices.

Even if Boss Jia’s Faraday Future burned tens of billions and only built three cars, if its market value is only 1000 million, then it is still a good company.

Zhou Xin said: "Is NewPay going public?

This will make the market even worse. Now there is a liquidity crisis. NewPay cannot obtain a good valuation when it is listed. Bringing NewPay to the market will further drain the liquidity on the market.

Further depletion of liquidity will only make the crisis worse.I don't think this is a good approach. "

Henry said: “It’s just the middle class that doesn’t have mobility, their mobility has dried up.

But financial institutions still have money, and the financial crisis has not yet affected them.

And even if the crisis affects financial institutions, we will issue special bonds to increase liquidity in the market. "

Zhou Xin thought to himself, md is trying to take advantage of me. NewPay is the best asset on my account, so I have to make conditions.

"I can cooperate with your rescue operation, Henry. Friendship is friendship, and transaction is transaction." Henry heard what Zhou Xin meant, "Let's make an offer. Now is a good time. Can you tell me what you want?"

Zhou Xin didn't speak, and only the breathing of the two of them could be heard on the phone, "Cymer?"

Zhou Xin tried in a questioning tone: "You know, I have a photolithography machine business. We are currently doing EUV research and development, and the light source is difficult to deal with.

Five years ago, we believed that Cymer was the only company with the potential to conquer deep ultraviolet light sources, but the acquisition was rejected by the White House. "

Henry Paulson said: "I don't know what kind of company this is, I have to find out.

Is it just this? "

Zhou Xin nodded on the phone: "Yes."

This is enough. Once I get this, I can’t create EUV. You don’t want to isolate Chinese companies from the EUV industry chain.

This is a neck-locking tactic.

Henry and Zhou Xin reached a preliminary consensus that this was a transaction. If the other party offered appropriate chips, Zhou Xin would allow Amerikan to operate NewPay and list it.

Soon, Henry's second call came: "Newman, I'm sorry, this is high-precision technology in enterprises that are not allowed to be exported under the Wassenaar Agreement.

We can sell Cymer to you, but Cymer cannot leave Amerikan from technology to R&D to production. "

Zhou Xin was speechless, so what’s the use of buying it?

"Technical data cannot be exported?" Zhou Xin asked.

“No, technicians can’t go to China either.

I can't promise you this. "Henry said.

Henry went to consult the technical experts from the Department of Energy. Because the new core lithography machine was the first to break through in the immersion lithography machine, Amerikan was particularly vigilant.

If China continues to lead in EUV, they will lose all their advantages in advanced chip manufacturing processes.

This is related to the strategic security of Amerikan, and it is impossible to sell it to Zhou Xin.

Amerikan internally speaks highly of Zhou Xin, believing that under his leadership, China's semiconductor industry has made a qualitative leap.

"In the past, China invested heavily in the chip field. They just wanted to become a production base like Goryeo or Wanwan, and even then, they couldn't do it.

But after Newman returned, China not only produced one-third of the world's chips, but also achieved leadership in the fields of lithography machines and chip design.

China is not good at market-oriented operations. They still apply the thinking of the Soviet Union for Mutual Economic and Trade Assistance to the chip industry. With only the manufacturing side and no market side, it will never be possible to solve substantive problems.

Newman is different. Newman is the top entrepreneur. The Matrix brand he created has profoundly led to changes in the consumer electronics industry. He knows what the market needs.

Under his leadership, China's chip industry will be a more formidable enemy than Neon in the future.Because Newman is not short of money, we cannot control him like we invest in Samsung.

At the same time, China is not like Neon and Goryeo. We can deal with Newman through means outside the rules.

We need to start paying attention to the rapid development of China's chip industry, and we need to appropriately curb the development of their high-precision technologies. "

This is a speech made by a think tank expert on the chip industry at a communication forum held by Americen's Foreign Affairs magazine in Washington.

Based on this understanding, it is impossible for Amerikan to sell Cymer to Zhou Xin.

Because of this understanding, Americen's semiconductor equipment and raw material suppliers, at the request of the Department of Energy, even began to cut prices in order to suppress Chinese competitors.

The best way to suppress the development of China's chip industry is always to dump at low prices, rather than banning yourself.

Of course, it is a dilemma for Amerikan. Low-price dumping and China’s advantages in AI and mobile phones will make them unbearable.

Now that there is no such concern, it is natural to adopt the strategy of low-price dumping.

"Make a different request, Newman," Henry said.

Zhou Xin asked: "Then let Xinxin join EUV LLC."

Henry knew what it was, and he had communicated with the Department of Energy and thought it was a request that could be granted.

Because Chinese companies are expanding very rapidly in the semiconductor supply chain, they are afraid of the success of Chinese lithography machines, so they want Xinxin to join EUV LLC.

If you join EUV LLC, even if you succeed in developing EUV, you will still be subject to the constraints of others. More than 50.00% of the parts and components must come from Americen. Are you still not allowed to do whatever they want with you?
What Zhou Xin thinks is to replace it step by step. I will build the EUV first.

I built the EUV in China, built a few more, and gradually replaced them during the manufacturing process.

Do reverse engineering with the easy stuff first and then the tough stuff.

Zhou Xin nodded: "Okay, that's it."

In Zhou Xin's mind, NewPay will have to be sold sooner or later. Now that it's just listed, he still has control.

NewPay went public and changed its core to join EUV LLC, which is not a loss.

As long as ASML and Nikon can be defeated, it will be a big profit.

If you compete with ASML, you will neither make nor lose.

Henry was relieved because Zhou Xin didn't have the lion's mouth.

The listing of NewPay will become a new hot spot in the financial circle and the media, and Madoff and Robin will be thrown out to defuse people's anger.

The remaining money in Madoff's hedge fund will be lost to financial institutions first and then to ordinary investors.

When financial institutions take away their principal, each ordinary investor will receive only one-tenth.

(End of this chapter)