I can see big data

Chapter 375

There are actually two hidden messages in the USDA news.

First, this type of genetically modified soybean is absolutely safe, and everyone can buy it with confidence; second, only this type of genetically modified soybean is currently confirmed to be safe, and other soybeans cannot be sold for the time being.

As soon as the news came out, the price of this type of genetically modified soybean was instantly raised.

The reason is simple. Rare things are more expensive. At present, countries in the world—mainly China—have too much demand for genetically modified soybeans, but only this kind of genetically modified soybeans can be exported.

If supply is less than demand, the price will naturally rise.

As for the impact of the increase in the price of genetically modified soybeans on domestic crushing companies controlled by "foreign capital"?The four major grain merchants don't care.

Firstly, not all of these foreign companies that hold shares are owned by the four major grain merchants. Even if they are owned by them, the profits are much greater than the losses.

The second reason is that of course oil extraction companies will not sell at a loss, and they will add the price increase to their products, so the final price increase will still be borne by consumers.

After all, China cannot produce enough genetically modified soybeans, so it can only import them from the four major grain merchants.

But Li Han's purpose is to make the oil-extracting companies lose money on a large scale, and then buy these companies.

As for the life of ordinary people, the impact is not great. The genetically modified soybean oil is too expensive to use other oils. Anyway, it is better to eat less genetically modified foods.

However, the main use of China's genetically modified soybeans is actually feed for the farming industry. The soybeans used to make feed account for 80% of the total, while the soybeans used to squeeze soybean oil account for only about 20%.

So, the 80% is the key.

One of the reasons why Li Han now has his soybean companies plant non-GMO soybeans is to deal with this problem.

The price increase of genetically modified soybeans, Li Han just took advantage of this wave of price increases to promote non-genetically modified soybeans, and then let everyone gradually get used to and accept non-genetically modified soybeans, and let this idea slowly take shape in their minds.

Because in terms of price, there is actually not much difference between the two. Non-genetically modified soybeans are only a few hundred yuan more expensive per ton than genetically modified soybeans. The factor of oil yield only affects the crushing enterprises, and has little impact on the breeding enterprises.

The problem now is that they don't have enough production to support the 80% demand, so the next thing is a tug of war.

The price increase of soybeans in the United States cannot last for too long. It is now autumn, and the next batch of soybeans will be produced from October to November. The other party should continue to press this batch of soybeans.

Because the temperature in the three months from December to February is too low, soybeans will not be planted, so the next batch of soybeans will not be produced until June next year.

Soybeans can usually be stored for about two years, and there is not much loss in pressing for a period of time.

This business is a steady profit for the four major grain merchants. Now they can earn as much as they sell soybeans at high prices. If they cannot be sold, they will not lose money if they return to parity prices, so they will definitely continue to hold it in their hands.

Li Han reckons that the US Department of Agriculture will not let go until June next year.

In other words, during the nine months from September to June next year, Li Han must take back more than 50% of the soybean crushing enterprises.

At the same time, domestic farmers must rely on various sources of soybean imports to survive the nine-month cold winter period, and import these high-priced soybeans as little as possible.If you really can't survive, it doesn't matter if you import at a high price. A certain loss is acceptable.

The domestic soybeans used for breeding are about 7000 million tons, and domestic planting enterprises can produce more than 2000 million tons of non-GMO soybeans. Counting the soybeans on hand of Sinograin and scattered imports from small countries such as Russia, they can obtain about 1000 million tons of soybeans. A total of 3000 million tons.

In addition, Brazil's soybeans, excluding the batch controlled by the four major grain merchants, can still export about 2000 million tons of soybeans every year, and Argentina also exports about 1000 million tons of soybeans. In other words, the current gap 1000 million tons.

Before the four major grain merchants started this harvesting operation, the price of soybeans was generally around 5000 yuan per ton, but now the price of soybeans has risen to 9000 yuan per ton, and it is still rising. It is expected that the peak value will reach [-] yuan. Yuan per ton.

Although there is a gap of 1000 million tons, the demand for this 1000 million tons is scattered within nine months.

After all, the price of pork per catty will increase by a few yuan. This effect is not big, because Sinograin also has pork reserves, and the price of pork can be controlled until they successfully regain the soybean market. .

Losses are inevitable for such a plan, but it is acceptable to regain the domestic soybean market with such a small loss, and it will be profitable in the long run.

In addition, Li Han had other ways to reduce this loss, so he immediately returned to his study and held a wave of video conferences with Chenxi Company and Hualong Enterprise to explain the next task.

"Mr. Li, as you said, they found an excuse to raise the price." Kong Jianhua looked worried.

"However, what will happen to our country's soybean shortage in the future? According to my speculation, the US Department of Agriculture will suppress the soybeans on hand for about half a year." Nie Caibin frowned, "In the past six months, our country's soybean shortage It’s very serious. No matter how I calculate, there will be at least a gap of about 1000 million tons that cannot be filled, and this is still on the premise of using the reserves of China Grain.”

"I'm here to talk to you about this issue today." Li Han replied, "If I'm not mistaken, the US Department of Agriculture should not let go of soybean exports until around June next year. During these nine months, The soybean shortage in the farming industry will be more than 1000 million tons."

"Then what should we do? Before the soybean crushing enterprises collapse, the farming enterprises will collapse first." Kong Jianhua frowned, "If we import their high-priced genetically modified soybeans, the domestic pork price may rise a lot."

"That's why we need to help these breeding companies survive this cold winter." Li Han said seriously, "From now on, we will invest in some of the largest domestic breeding companies, and then provide them with part of the funds to help them survive. Overcoming difficulties. But of course this money is not given to the four major grain merchants for free, we must find a way to reduce the loss of importing high-priced genetically modified soybeans."

"But, how to reduce it?" Kong Jianhua asked puzzled, "This soybean gap can't be filled."

"If we can't fill the gap in soybeans, then we can fill in the gap in funds, right?" Li Han smiled, "We don't buy commodity futures of soybeans, but options on soybeans. The money we earn will make up for our losses in imports."

"So that's it! Hedging transaction!" Nie Caibin suddenly said: "What a great idea! Although it can't completely offset the loss of soybean imports, this loss is acceptable! Forgive them for not daring to lower the price of soybeans!"

"That's right, as long as we can reduce the losses in this area, we can then start to regain the soybean crushing market." Li Han nodded, "My request to the two of you and China Grain Storage is to be able to acquire at least 20% of the domestic crushing companies. And we, Qiaokou Company, will focus our attention and funds on Koi Edible Oil, and try our best to win the controlling stake in this company.”

"...Is there any problem?" Kong Jianhua asked with some concern, "The capital behind Koi Edible Oil is a rich man from Singapore, and he is one of the top ten richest people in Asia. To win this company, I am afraid Isn’t it easy? Isn’t it easier to start with those small-scale enterprises?”

"That's so boring, isn't it?" Li Han smiled while holding his chin, "Sure enough, I still have to challenge a little bit to make me more motivated. Don't worry about this, I will definitely win the koi cooking oil for at least 34 % of the shares."

"This..." Nie Caibin smiled wryly, "Your spirit is really admirable, but...it's about the country, I think it's better to be safe. If you do this, the country will definitely thank you .”

"Don't worry, I will not let down the country's trust." Li Han said with a smile, "But I have already made up my mind about this matter. Koi edible oil was originally founded by entrepreneurs in our country, only a few decades ago. In the battle for the soybean market, foreign capital took advantage of it. Now I want to take it back and make it a domestic brand again.”

"I think this matter can be discussed in the long run. It's quite difficult to rely on your own strength..." Nie Caibin persuaded.

"No." Li Han shook his head: "This is not only my personal interest, but also for serious reasons."

Speaking, Li Han explained: "Koi edible oil accounts for about 30% of the domestic grain and oil market, and is also the industry leader. Only by winning this company can the domestic soybean market be truly in our hands. Otherwise, koi cooking oil will be like a time bomb, which may explode at any time."

"It's like the domestic beverage industry. Although there were a large number of domestic brands in China back then, the leaders in the domestic beverage industry were still Pepsi and Coca-Cola. Facing the competition from these big companies, small domestic brands were no match at all. The two companies were acquired, annexed, and finally disappeared, only to be monopolized by foreign capital."

"Since that's the case, we won't stop you." Kong Jianhua said with a smile, "What we can do for you is to acquire as many soybean oil companies as possible to ease your pressure."

"This is a war with no retreat..." Nie Caibin sighed.

"At this time, we can only fight with our backs, can't we?" Li Han crossed his arms and said, "But don't worry too much, this is how I got here step by step."

"Yes, I'll wait for your good news." Nie Caibin nodded.

(Thanks to 当仒尛, Maple Leaf 154600, Qiu ← Yi → Yue for the monthly tickets, Ji Qingwen for the 2 monthly tickets, TerinC for the 6 monthly tickets, and Chidori Xiangyu for the 18 monthly tickets)
(End of this chapter)