Daming 1805

Zhu Jingyuan stayed in the Motor Vehicle Industrial Park on Chongming Island for three days.

This time, I did not personally organize the car race, because the car race already has a foundation.

Before Zhu Jingyuan joined, there were various horse-drawn carriage races, bicycle races, motor vehicle and car races.

At the beginning, Zhu Jingyuan specially arranged for the imperial court of the Great Food Kingdom to also organize a car race, and now it has reached a certain scale.

According to the original plan, Zhu Jingyuan planned to go to Edo to take office after visiting Nantong.

But Zhu Jingyuan changed his mind when he visited the shipyard a few days ago and what happened in the past few days.

While my father was still in Ying Tian Mansion, I went back to Ying Tian Mansion to have an interview with him.

On the way back to Yingtian, Zhu Jingyuan sorted out his recent thoughts and wrote a relatively complete report.

After rushing to Yingtian, he went to meet his father and handed over the report by the way.

Zhu Jingyuan originally thought that the father should at least ask for details, but Zhu Jianyan said directly after reading it:

"Just let it go and do it, don't worry about those villains' gossip..."

Zhu Jingyuan was obviously taken aback when he heard this, and then quickly realized that his father was trying to comfort him.

He was worried that the articles in the tabloids a few days ago would affect his mentality.

There should have been a problem, but this time I deliberately didn't ask, and used this kind of action to show my support for myself.

Zhu Jingyuan suddenly smiled helplessly:

"Father, you don't have to do this, what about our Daming, you and I still don't know?
"Those tabloids are basically not on the table, and those ideas are basically the same as the emperor using a golden pole.

"I didn't take it to heart, and I came back this time not to observe your attitude towards me...

"I really want to take this opportunity to have a good chat with you before going abroad.

"Because it will be several years before we meet again..."

Zhu Jianyan smiled and waved his hands:

"Okay, as expected, I was worrying too much, Jingyuan, you are still the same, you haven't changed at all, so I can rest assured.

"Then let me ask a few questions, I do have something I want to ask you.

"You are worried about the joint research and development of Thai and Western people. This kind of concern is indeed unavoidable.

"However, what are the considerations for including Taixi's industrial system into Daming's industrial system?"

Zhu Jingyuan explained in advance:
"Let the countries of Thailand and the West be deeply tied to Ming Dynasty economically, and make their markets a part of the Ming market.

"If they are unable to operate independently after they leave Daming, the economic order will quickly collapse.

"At the very least, the chaos should continue for a long time, so that the overall economic and technological level will be reduced for an era.

"In order to achieve this goal, we can continue to open up some advanced technologies to the West.

"Of course, just like the cooperation with France and the UK, technological openness is conditional, and this condition is the market.

"Or to put it another way, this process is the process of economic colonization.

"If they want to learn Daming's high-end technology, they must become part of the market controlled by Daming.

"The two are actually one and two, two and one.

"The higher the level of technology, the more difficult it is to realize, and the greater the demand on the industrial base and market.

"When the final products they can make are complex to a certain extent, it will not be possible for them alone to maintain the entire industrial base.

"At the same time, some of their industries should have been completely controlled by Daming's capital...

"In that case, they completely lose the opportunity to be independent.

"At that time, even if their king and court want to oppose Daming, they will be restrained by their domestic capital representatives.

"The size of the countries in Thailand and the West is relatively limited compared to Ming Dynasty, and they are not too far away from this level.

"It's almost the same time when electronic computers and turbine engines are common."

Zhu Jianyan showed a dazed expression when he heard half of it, because he found the corresponding thing in the posthumous article of the ancestors:

"The economies of the two sides are bound to each other, and the huge Ming Dynasty is absolutely dominant, and the other side can become the de facto economic colony of our Ming Dynasty..."

Zhu Jingyuan also nodded immediately:

"That's it, I think that's where we're headed for the next phase.

"To make it impossible for the other party to leave Da Ming, but Da Ming can abandon them at any time.

"In this way, an all-out war is basically impossible...

"If the other party's royal family and court oppose us, we can even mobilize the other party's civilian forces.

"Let the other party's capital and people force their royal family to cooperate with us.

"It's even a matter of abolishing and setting up."

What Zhu Jingyuan said was what actually happened in his previous life.

But the United States, which was tied to Thais and Westerners in Daming's previous life, is different.

While Americans are bound to Thais and Westerners, they themselves are actually bound in reverse to a certain extent.

Because after the information age, the population and size of the United States are actually still an order of magnitude worse.

The United States and Europe must be combined into one to form a complete and complete industrial system.

Although the United States may account for half or more of them, Taixi is also indispensable to the United States.

The current and future Ming Dynasty is an order of magnitude larger than the United States, and has the ability to realize a complete industrial system by itself.

Zhu Jianyan, who has read the posthumous articles of the ancestors, immediately grasped the key point of Zhu Jingyuan's logic:

"Let the capital and people in the other country launch a coup...

"Is it also possible to let the other party's domestic capital and people ask for it, and let the other party take the initiative to become a vassal of Daming?"

Zhu Jingyuan was stunned for a moment, his father was indeed still interested in the territory.

In fact, the current emperor of Ming must have the idea of ​​unifying the world, after all, there are two thirds of the world.

But the current Emperor Ming didn't want to mention the matter of the war.

I'm a bit worried about the world war.

If there is a peaceful method of annexation, allowing the other party to take the initiative to attach, there will definitely be high interest.

Of course Zhu Jingyuan also considered:
"Theoretically, it is possible to do that, but when we do that, we have to consider whether it is beneficial to Daming.

"The Xiyi are not the traditional vassals around the Ming Dynasty, their race and culture are completely different from ours.

"Even if we want to do this, we must control the population comparison between the two sides. The population of Daming must be at least twice that of the other side.

"Right now, there are only a quarter more people in Daming than in Taixi.

"If we maintain natural growth in the future, it will be difficult for us to achieve several times the ratio of the other party.

"We have to find a way to control the population growth rate of the Taixi people, and at the same time carry out in-depth and thorough cultural penetration.

"After at least one generation or even two generations of preparation, a relatively safe and peaceful annexation can be achieved.

"Otherwise, we will bury the seeds of disaster for our descendants..."

Zhu Jianyan immediately felt a little regretful:

"Indeed, the Han Dynasty's inappropriate handling of the Xiongnu's internal migration may have been the early cause of the chaos in China.

"It seems that my generation is not good enough. No matter how you plan, it must be completed by your generation."

Speaking of this, Zhu Jianyan regained his spirit:

"However, regardless of whether the peaceful annexation is to be made in the end, it is right to find a way to control the population of the Taixi people.

"This time your aides are going to England to mourn Pete, you can find that Malthus...

"In a state of peace, the population will grow exponentially, while the means of living can only grow linearly.

"What's more, now that all the exploration and distribution in the world has been completed, the territory controlled by the Thai and Western countries is only half of that of Ming Dynasty, and the difference in the area of ​​​​the grain-producing areas will be even greater.

"So if the Thai and Western countries let it go, there will inevitably be famine, war and plague.

"Therefore, countries in Europe and America should be advised to take measures to curb the birth rate.

"Malthus can be financed to promote his theories."

He nodded with a very complicated expression:
"I will remind Mr. Niu..."

Then Zhu Jianyan seemed to think of something again:
"Jingyuan, do you think there is any problem with this theory? Should we, Daming, be prepared for it?

"The land of our Ming Dynasty is not infinite, after all, the scale of the entire earth is only this.

"If the number of our Ming people increases to several billion, there will definitely be various problems.

"Jing Yuan, what do you think of this issue? Have you considered it?"

Zhu Jianyan has no deep feelings about these things, and is considering these logics very objectively.

This inquiry of Zhu Jingyuan even has the intention of investigating and comparing.

I want to see if Zhu Jingyuan deviates greatly from the thinking left by Emperor Shizu on issues of this level.

Zhu Jingyuan obviously has thoughts on this kind of problem, and even has deep personal experience:
"Population growth is not inherently exponential because normal human energy is limited.

"As technology and culture continue to develop, the average person will become more and more educated in general.

"The jobs they do will become more and more complex, and the social affairs they need to deal with will become more and more complex.

"The energy that ordinary people allocate to raising and educating their offspring is likewise limited.

"And as the level of education rises, the complexity of the work you do will rise, and there will be a corresponding downward trend.

"The more critical issue is that people with high levels of education have higher demands on their offspring.

"Ordinary people hope that their children will go up, at least not lower than themselves.

"It increases the effort and resources required to raise a single child.

"The energy that parents can spend on their children is decreasing, and the resources that need to be provided to individual children are increasing, and the direct result is that the number of children will be greatly reduced.

"This still doesn't take into account that as the status of women continues to rise as society develops, they will increasingly participate in more social work, instead of just undertaking traditional reproductive obligations.

"It also does not take into account the concentration of means of production, the pressure of living caused by social problems such as the inflation of means of subsistence.

"So when society develops to a certain level, the birth rate will naturally decrease.

"In fact, only the royal family, nobles, and high-level businessmen, these families who do not need to take care of their own children, will the growth of offspring be closer to exponential.

"Unless the imperial court can truly achieve absolute socialized upbringing.

"Let ordinary people only care about giving birth and not raising them, the number will definitely continue to expand.

"At the same time, the increase in means of subsistence is not actually linear...

"At least in the era of the industrial revolution, it is not linear, and the growth rate may be faster than the population increase.

"The role of chemical fertilizers is now being felt.

"If it can be popularized quickly, it can directly double the grain yield within a few years.

"It may take two generations for the population to double.

"We cannot guarantee that technological innovation will continue to occur, but we cannot guarantee that it will not continue to occur.

"My personal estimate is that if there is no large-scale social turmoil in the future, the peak of Ming's population may be around 20 billion.

"There is no need to consider the situation of billions of Ming people.

"When it comes to your grandchildren, the emperor and the court should worry about how to increase the fertility rate.

"Based on the land that Daming currently controls, plus decades of scientific and technological progress, by that time, it will be no problem to raise 100 billion Ming people...

"Finally, neither of the above two analyzes can prove that Malthus's theory is wrong.

"His theory is the logic of an ideal situation without considering external factors.

"Of course, ideal situations hardly exist in sociology.

"So, we, Ming Dynasty, don't need to care about the existence of this theory, but we can promote this theory to Western countries."

Zhu Jianyan listened to Zhu Jingyuan's long speech very quietly, and compared it with the relevant theories in Shizu's legacy.

Then judge the credibility of the relevant logic in your own mind.

Zhu Jianyan does not completely believe in the legacy of the ancestors, nor does he blindly believe in Zhu Jingyuan's various theories.

There are not only various predictions and predictions in the legacy of the ancestors, but also a very mature guiding thinking analysis theory.

We require future generations to learn analytical methods first, and then look at those predictions dialectically, and apply them in comparison with their own actual situation.

Zhu Jingyuan didn't speak, just waited for his father to think over there.

After a long time, Zhu Jianyan spoke again:
"So...Jingyuan, what you mean is that Daming doesn't need to consider the issue of population growth control at all.

"The population of Daming will begin to decline before it reaches the limit of the land resources of Daming.

"So, we, Ming Dynasty, even have to think about it in advance to prevent the premature decrease of the population growth rate?

"Have you given any thought to this?"

Zhu Jingyuan nodded again:
"I really have a little bit of thinking in this aspect, and the most important ones are actually two aspects.

"First of all, what I said before, to prevent excessive pressure of competition for social survival.

"Actually, for the current Daming, this matter is not a problem, even if it is discussed now, it is a prevention for the future.

"At the same time, Emperor Shizu has left behind a large number of preventive measures, many of which are still effective today.

"The first is to improve a smooth artisan education and employment system to prevent the income and social status of physical and mental workers from being disconnected.

"Mental workers do not earn more than manual workers, nor do they have a significantly more respected social status.

"Ordinary people in society will not want to send their children to be mental workers.

"The social affairs that manual workers need to face are much simpler than those of mental workers.

"So they have more energy to focus on having and raising children.

"Let them have a relatively decent status and income, so that children can maintain the same standard of living relatively easily.

"Let them not find it troublesome to have children, nor worry about their children's future life.

"They have no worries about fertility.

"Then there is the avoidance of unfettered emancipation of women.

"To some extent, these two logics are also one for two, two for one.

"Most of the large-scale and sustained women's liberation movements are profit-driven.

"It's not wrong for women to take care of their husbands and children, and it's certainly not wrong to be self-reliant.

"The key is who is to evaluate right and wrong, and how are relevant decisions made?

"Is it the thinking and understanding of the individual's heart? Is it the need of personal life?

"Or was it coerced by public opinion, or driven by deliberately created anxiety?
"For ordinary women, if they can take care of their husbands and raise their children at home, they can live a stable life for the rest of their lives. Why would they take the initiative to go out to work?
"For some women who are naturally suitable for participating in scientific research, engineering, and management, leaving the family can also make greater contributions to society.

"However, it is ulterior motives to demand that all women all go out to work and all be self-reliant free from the shackles of their parents and families.

"It's about imposing on everyone a theory that is better for some groups.

"All women go out to work, which essentially doubles the source of workers and greatly improves the bargaining position of manufacturers.

"The imperial court should do the opposite, guaranteeing the income of the vast majority of workers and their living standards.

"Let a slightly skilled worker be able to support his wife and children relatively stably.

"The choice of whether his wife wants to go out to work is in the hands of him and his wife.

"It's not like the wife doesn't go out to work, the children have to be hungry, and the future has no future, so they have to work.

"This will naturally avoid excessive emancipation of women.

"In the final analysis, it is to protect the most basic fairness of the whole society and avoid excessive concentration of social wealth and resources.

"Let the benefits generated by technological innovation fall more on the main laborers in society."