I really just want to be a scholar

Chapter 646 30.00% probability of extreme weather, believe it or not?

The amount of data involved in this mathematical modeling deduction analysis is huge, and it was originally necessary to apply for supercomputing.

However, the use of supercomputing needs to go through the application process and queue up, and the program has to be rewritten to make it suitable for running in the supercomputing, which will take at least a week or so.

So Jiang Weixian naturally proposed to remotely use the dozens of server resources in his laboratory building.

Jiang Weixian's fluid mechanics laboratory building is a national key laboratory building. These dozens of servers were jointly developed by professors from the School of Computer Science, Kiyoki University. It is said that a very powerful cloud computing platform was formed at that time.

However, Qin Ke gave up after learning about its computing power data. With this cloud computing platform, which was really good five years ago, but is now lagging behind, it may not be possible to run for 48 hours to get a result.

So Qin Ke simply let Shimmer handle it.

Shimmer soon began to execute the program, and Qin Ke could see the calculation process constantly jumping through the interface through the remote connection.

Atmospheric circulation, changes in wind speed and direction, geographic coordinates, historical data of the Sahara Desert and the Taklamakan Desert, temperature and humidity changes, air pressure changes, light conditions, cloud movements... Countless variables and data are integrated into the bias with the NS equation as the core. Differential equations, as well as various matrices and probability calculations, are dazzling.

The amount of calculation is calculated in tens of millions.

Wan Baoshan coughed lightly, and looked at Academician Jiang Weixian: "Academician Jiang, you are the team leader, can you tell me your opinion?" The implication is that Qin Ke is going crazy, you have to take care of it.

This team has been studying extreme weather phenomena for a long time, and they are no strangers to responding to typhoons or even tsunamis, but they do not have much experience in how to deal with such large-scale sandstorms. The department arranged for the evacuation of personnel.

This kind of social impact is huge, and there are a lot of trucks going to and from the oil field every day. Whether the road is closed, completely closed, or which section is closed, and how long it will be closed, cannot be determined in just one or two sentences. The process and demonstration would take a few days, and Xia Yongguan did not dare to report the deduction results of Jiang Weixian's team with a probability of only about 30%.

Under everyone's nervous gaze, the sweat crystallization of the team's three days and nights of hard work slowly gathered on the remote interface——

"The average wind force in the center of the extremely strong sandstorm is expected to exceed level 12, and the danger level is red. All buildings in the above-mentioned areas are in danger of being buried by yellow sand. It is recommended that people in the above-mentioned areas be evacuated as soon as possible."

Wan Baoshan and Mao Hongen exchanged glances again, and both could see the surprise in each other's eyes.

Xia Yongguan was dumbfounded, and everyone's faces were heavy.

Only then did everyone in the conference room realize that Qin Ke himself had such a powerful data center, and they were greatly surprised.

Wan Baoshan echoed: "I have also used the 'MPAS' (Multi-Scale Prediction Model) for recent weather forecasts, and only a red high temperature warning is displayed."

This time was no exception. Ever since they were scared by Qin Ke last time, the two of them had been very cautious and did not dare to be lazy anymore. By entering the main meteorological data of the Taklimakan Desert in the past two years, the model was automatically proofread and optimized.

Wan Baoshan and Mao Hongen looked at each other. They never expected that in just three days, Jiang Weixian's research team would have completed the data analysis, worked out some mathematical models, and completed the deduction of the future weather!
Mao Hongen hesitated: "Of course we will not doubt the level and strength of Professor Qin and Professor Ning in mathematics, but I have analyzed it through the 'NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction System)' weather forecast model, and there is no hint that it will happen in the near future." Rain, steam and wind' extreme weather."

Xia Yongguan quickly asked Wu Youwen to contact Wan Baoshan and Mao Hongen's team, and Qin Ke didn't waste any time, and immediately discussed the countermeasures with the team members.

The extremely strong sandstorm caused by the "rain steaming wind" is nothing more than that. Although there will be losses, judging from the scope of the impact, it is still acceptable. But if there is another "fire rain", it is not a joke. Can easily destroy a city!
Xia Yongguan swallowed, but his voice was still hoarse like a dry leaf: "Professor Qin...do you want to contact Professor Wan Baoshan and Professor Mao Hongen to see the research results of their team?"

When dinner was almost finished, the deduction program run by Shimmer was about to usher in the final result.

However, none of them knew the existence of Shimmer, and they thought it was the staff of Lime Technology Data Center running this program in the background, so they ate dinner slowly while discussing the possible results in low voices.

But both Wan Baoshan and Mao Hongen have been beaten by Qin Ke, and they always have a kind of jealousy towards this young genius mathematician, and they left room for what they said just now, they just talked about their own research results, and did not dare to insist on Qin Ke's mathematical model deduction It turned out to be wrong.

Qin Ke shook his head and said, "I'm not familiar with the two weather prediction models you mentioned, but my model is based on the analysis of meteorological big data in the Taklamakan Desert and the Sahara Desert and the NS equation of fluid mechanics, and it's mainly for prediction' The three extreme meteorological disasters of dry rain, steaming rain, and fire rain may not be effective in other places, but here, the accuracy is guaranteed! I have confidence in it!"

However, if you consider that the total construction cost of the Lime technology data center is less than 4.5 million, the cost performance is obviously higher than that of the supercomputing center, not to mention the difference in power consumption between the two during operation.

Qin Ke frowned slightly. He had full confidence in the mathematical model he led the team to make. Although this was the most complex and largest mathematical deduction he had ever encountered, but now that the results came out, he had to prepare for the worst as soon as possible. Instead of looking for Wan Baoshan and Mao Hongen to argue again.

Meteorological prediction model is not an unfamiliar term. At present, the mainstream in the world is to create models based on graph neural network (GNN) and multidimensional time series (RNN), and then carry out meteorological prediction. "Numerical weather prediction system" and "cross-scale prediction model" Both are GNN and RNN weather prediction models that are widely used in the industry. After 30 to [-] years of testing and optimization, AI self-learning has also been added. At present, it can predict the weather within ten days more accurately.

Now the weather prediction models that the two teams are accustomed to using have no hints, but Qin Ke said that through the mathematical model he wrote himself, he deduced that there will be about 30.00% probability of "rain steaming wind" and large-scale extremely strong sandstorms , and even the specific time and place have been deduced?

He has worked at this weather station for nearly ten years, and he is well aware of the severity of the desert climate, and he is really worried that such terrifying and destructive natural disasters as "rain steaming wind" or "fire rain" will really appear.

But if the three research teams are willing to issue certificates at the same time, then Xia Yongguan will have the confidence to report to the National Meteorological Administration immediately.

"After the formation of the extremely strong sandstorm, it will expand from the D33 area to the entire area of ​​the D area within ten hours, and will move from south to east to west at a speed of about 20 kilometers to 25 kilometers per hour. The affected area is D The entire area of ​​the area, the area of ​​​​the C area, the B21 to B35 areas of the B area, and the A27 to A32 areas of the A area."

"After mathematical model deduction, around 10 o'clock tomorrow morning, there will be a third 'dry rain' phenomenon in the D33 area, with a probability of 95.55%, and then around 12 o'clock noon, there will be a 31.69% probability that it will evolve into a more Severe 'rain-steaming wind'. Once the 'rain-steaming wind' phenomenon occurs, a large-scale and extremely strong sandstorm will form within an hour and last for about five days."

It took more than ten minutes for the video conference to be connected slowly, which made Qin Ke feel a little uncomfortable.There are less than 18 hours left until noon tomorrow, and time is racing against time!

To say that the most nervous person was not Qin Ke, nor anyone in the research team, but the webmaster Xia Yongguan who was waiting by the side.

The complexion of everyone present changed dramatically, Xia Yongguan's complexion was even paler.

Wan Baoshan spoke politely, but slowly, pausing every sentence for two seconds. Obviously Qin Ke contacted their two research teams suddenly, which caught Wan Baoshan a little off guard. There was Ning Qingyun's look next to him, wanting to see some clues.

"Academician Jiang, Professor Qin, hello, we haven't had the chance to hold another exchange meeting these days. Now we are in such a hurry to find it, but have any major results?"

Although Jiang Weixian did not personally participate in the follow-up research, he followed up the whole process, and he had confidence in Qin Ke and Ning Qingyun. If he was not sure, the attitude of these two children would not be so tough and resolute.So he said without hesitation: "The current team leaders and deputy leaders are Qin Ke and Ning Qingyun, and I am willing to be responsible for their conclusions."

Considering the responsibilities and pressure on Xia Yongguan's shoulders, Qin Ke and Academician Jiang Weixian exchanged glances, then nodded: "Okay, arrange a three-party video conference immediately."

How can this be?

An old academician like Jiang Weixian is actually willing to give up his qualifications as a team leader, and is willing to guarantee the research results of his disciples?
Both of them hesitated, and wanted to nod along with the trend, but they thought that once they agreed with Qin Ke's team's conclusion, if a particularly strong sandstorm really happened, Qin Ke's team would be responsible for almost all the credit, and if there was no sandstorm, they would be blamed But let them share the share...

After he finished signing, Ning Qingyun took the pen, signed his name in a hurry, and said seriously: "Station Master Xia, every second wasted now will reduce the time spent preparing to deal with the extremely strong sandstorm." Time. Although there is only about a 30% probability, once it happens, the consequences of the disaster will be 100%. Dozens of people in this weather station, as well as truck drivers and passengers passing on the road, may be in danger of life. "

But this matter not only involves his weather station, but also involves the closure of three major highways. It is necessary to contact the higher authorities to issue a notice, build roadblocks, and prevent all vehicles from passing. Vehicles currently on the road must be evacuated as soon as possible.

The most serious loss may be the sandstorm sweeping the roads in the area. The sand-proof green plants on both sides may be uprooted, and the roads will also be buried by yellow sand. .

Qin Ke didn't bother to pay attention to what these small characters were thinking, and directly explained the results of his team's deduction, and then asked: "I don't know what research results Professor Wan and Professor Mao have these days, do you support our side? conclusion?"

It's not that he doesn't believe in Qin Ke and the others, it's because the matter involves too much.

This is naturally due to the upgrade of Vivolight to LV4, which has significantly improved the management efficiency of computing resources and the processing capacity of parallel algorithms. If Vivolight is still the original LV3, it will take at least three hours to complete this calculation.

"After the extremely strong sandstorm is over, it will lead to serious chaos in the climate in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert, and there is a 11.72% probability of triggering a 'fire rain' disaster. The range and direction of movement of the 'fire rain' cannot be deduced due to insufficient current data. Please Update the latest weather data in time and carry out recalculation and deduction.”

If you stand in the monitoring room of the Lime Technology data center at this time, you can see through the monitoring platform that the CPU and GPU usage rates of all servers are close to 100%, the cooling fans are working at full capacity, and the precision air conditioners are also running at full speed ...

Because this weather station is in the D17 area, if a sandstorm really forms, this is where the wind is strongest in its center!
The only good news is that the sandstorm did not extend beyond the Taklamakan Desert. Even the A27 to A32 areas are nearly [-] kilometers away from the nearest city on the edge of the desert, Arada City. Arada City will be affected to some extent, but not What a big loss.

Jiang Weixian also signed his name, and the rest of the team were silent, but they all took the pen and signed one by one.

One must know that Qin Ke spent at most three days on research!It's so amazing, then the weather forecasting teams in the world should stop doing it and go home to grow sweet potatoes!

Just as Xia Yongguan was thinking about the possible consequences in his mind, another new calculation result popped up.

According to the calculation results, there is a 30% chance that the extremely strong sandstorm caused by the "rain steaming wind" will appear at around 13:[-] noon tomorrow. In order to avoid losses, the personnel and materials within the coverage area must be transferred as soon as possible, and the faster the better.

If such a huge amount of calculation is performed by a supercomputer costing more than 20 billion yuan, it will take about 10 minutes, and the low light of LV4 can give full play to the resource advantages of more than 1000 server groups in the Lime Technology data center. It takes about half an hour.

Another lucky thing is that this time the dust storm moved south, avoiding the most valuable desert oil field development in the north.

Wan Baoshan's team and Mao Hongen's team are both extremely professional meteorological teams, but they are unable to build their own weather forecasting systems. They use these two world-renowned weather forecasting models respectively, and have also optimized them over a long period of time to make them more in line with local conditions.

Seeing that the two professors on the opposite side did not answer directly, Qin Ke lost his patience. He took the "Research Report and Proposal" that had just been printed out in Ning Qingyun's hand, and hurriedly signed his name on the last part of the document , and at the same time said to Xia Yong next to him:
"Station Master Xia, as the leader of the expatriate research team of the 'Qingmu University Fluid Mechanics Laboratory', I will formally submit a written proposal to you. Please quickly report the research conclusions of our team to the superior department and carry out the research as quickly as possible. Evacuation response to prevent extreme meteorological disasters."

Everyone didn't speak anymore, they just stood behind Qin Ke and Ning Qingyun, looking at Xia Yongguan like this.

Xia Yongguan's forehead is covered in cold sweat, with a 30.00% probability of extreme weather...

But Ning Qingyun is right, once it happens, it will be 100% a huge disaster!

He gritted his teeth and stopped looking at Wan Baoshan and Mao Hongen on the big screen. He accepted the report suggestion from Ning Qingjun and said firmly, "I will report to my superiors as quickly as possible!"

(End of this chapter)