Civilization Template

Chapter 142 Big Filter

"In this world, whose population is larger than both the United States and the Soviet Union?"

Qu Yanqiu's posture at this time is like an elder full of wisdom, earnestly inducing.

"Then there are only China and India."

"Actually, there is only one country, China." Qu Yanqiu raised a finger.

"why?"

"India, historically, was not a country. Let's not go into the details, why. But they haven't been able to become a country for the past 5000 years, there must be something internal that stops them.

This kind of power will continue to exist for a long time to come. "

Qu Yanqiu did not explain much about the composition of India.Polytheism itself contains the genes of conflict and division.

Hearing such a level of thinking, a group of freshman undergraduates completely lost their minds.

"I disagree with what you said."

Chen Quan thought for a while, and finally started to fight back.That is to say, he, who is well-informed, can keep up with Qu Yanqiu's train of thought.

"With the emergence of information tools such as telephones, faxes, BP machines, and even mobile phones, countries and organizations that were previously unable to cooperate due to geographical restrictions finally have the opportunity to unite. Many countries in Europe are planning to establish What the EU. This phenomenon is unprecedented."

"No! This phenomenon has happened before."

Qu Yanqiu has a thorough understanding of human history. Although she has no advantage in learning new knowledge, her ability to generalize laws is unparalleled in the world.

"When?"

"Similar things happened during the Greek city-state period. It also happened during the Roman period. But they all failed in the end."

"why?"

"Culture! Religion!"

Qu Yanqiu raised three fingers in a row, "There are races!"

"What do you mean?"

Everyone asked in unison.

"I checked a lot of literature and found that the vast majority of cultures on earth are exclusive."

Qu Yanqiu became more confident as she spoke.

"Among all cultures and religions on earth, there is a common characteristic, that is, when they are strong, they can show a certain openness, and once they start to decline, they will show narrowness and extremes.

For example, Arabic culture in history, the Crusades, etc.And the most recent CCCP.

Don't look at it, Europe and the United States are harmonious now, but at the root, their religions and races are all different.Once the strong decline, challengers will naturally emerge.

Westerners even summed up a term for it, Thucydides trap.In the past thousands of years, no country can escape the curse of Thucydides' trap.

Because this is determined by the nature of the country, the complex of interests.

If the United States relies too much on the so-called globalization provided by other countries, and its own industrial chain is too weak to maintain its status as a superpower, it will be time for him to abdicate. "
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"What will happen if the total population of a powerful country cannot support the industrial population it needs?"

Feng Yan interjected curiously.

"We still use history as a guide. If the total population of a powerful country is not enough to support the needs of technological development, then the country will collapse on its own."

Qu Yanqiu obviously came prepared.

"Here we can refer to, the collapse of the Roman Empire.

In the age of the Roman Empire, it had no worthy enemies.Its collapse was entirely caused by the fact that the population size could not keep up with the development of the technological level.

With the improvement of the level of science and technology and the standard of living, there will be a large number of non-industrialized needs for people, the animals themselves.Such as the famous Colosseum and so on.

There are more of these so-called tertiary industries, and they will naturally compete for the population of the primary and secondary industries.Slowly, fundamental problems will appear in Rome's entire industrial chain.Because no one wants to enter the factory, workshop anymore.

In addition, in a society with a long period of peace and a relatively high urbanization process, the human fertility rate will naturally decline.This is reflected in Roman times and modern society.

As the industrial population declines, the output of industry will continue to decline, and when it falls to a critical point, it will affect Rome's military strength.

From that point on, the victorious Rome began to suffer defeats.

This is also Rome, slowly being eaten away and defeated by barbarians without an obvious strong enemy.

In fact, Rome was not defeated by the enemy, but was dragged down by the stagnation or even decline of the total population, as well as the natural diversion of the industrial population caused by the division of labor in society. "

"After the collapse of the Roman Empire, what about its technological level?"

The more people listened, the more interested they became. "Can the technological level of mankind continue to advance?"

"No. When the population is insufficient, the technological level cannot advance.

After the collapse of the Roman Empire, Europe experienced a 1000-year Dark Middle Ages.

Compared with the technological and cultural level of the Roman era, the technological level of mankind in the Middle Ages was greatly regressed.

Technologies such as the Colosseum, aqueducts, public baths, and water supply and drainage systems that could be built in large quantities during the Roman period and served ordinary people were completely lost.Although the church still has the church construction technology in its hands, its cost has become extremely expensive, and it cannot be popularized at all, let alone development and renewal.

This period of darkness did not end until the population re-exploded in the Age of Discovery and broke through the population peak of the pre-Roman period.

Therefore, we can make a simple analogy. The level of human science and technology has nothing to do with the system, has nothing to do with race, and is only positively correlated with the total population.

This is why, before the 18th century, China's economic aggregate and technological level always ranked first in the world.Because China has a unified cultural heritage. "

"According to what you say, even if China, as a country, becomes a new generation of power again and ascends to the top of the world, it will still face the same problem. The total population of China will not be able to support the impact of technology on the population sooner or later. It is almost infinite needs."

Chen Quan thought of another thing.

The demand of technological development on the population is almost the same as the demand of perfect competition on him, there is no end.

"Not necessarily." Qu Yanqiu shook her head. "Chinese civilization is very special."

"Special? How special?"

"Chinese civilization is the only one that can still maintain an open culture even when it is weak."

"Give me an example!"

"Chinese mainland has been ruled by foreign races many times. But the result of each rule is the complete assimilation of foreign races. The culture of Tang Dynasty that we were proud of, the Li family, actually came from the grassland people. Not to mention, the historical In the Liao, Jin, Yuan, Qing and other dynasties, there was only one fate for these foreign rulers, Sinicization.

No matter what kind of religion, theory, or doctrine, as long as it enters China, it will be completely assimilated. "

"really?"

Everyone was completely confused.

"Besides this, Chinese culture is the only culture that doesn't use race or bloodlines as identification criteria." Qu Yanqiu's ult has not yet been released.

"How to say?"

A group of freshmen felt as if they were listening to a bible, and they were completely dumbfounded.

“Countries all over the world are either nation-states or religious nations.

For example, the Commonwealth of Nations.On such a small island, among tens of millions of people, there are actually four different races and two different religions.As long as Britain continues to weaken, it will sooner or later find itself in the predicament of continued division.

This is the innate dilemma of nation-states and religious states.

They are united by national blood or religious purity, and after the external force disappears, they will naturally split for the same reason.Because differences can always be found.

But China is different. China is a cultural country.

Confucius once said that when the barbarians enter China, the Chinese will live, and when China enters the barbarians, the barbarians will follow.

Chinese civilization not only said so, but also did so.

Numerous northern grassland peoples and southern barbarians were assimilated by Chinese culture.More than half of the Han population actually came from these assimilated ethnic groups.

In Europe at the same time, what was the nation in Northern Europe before 2000, what was the nation in Central Europe, what was the nation in Southern Europe, and what is the nation now.

Only a truly open system can completely integrate and integrate other ethnic groups and religions.

This is something that all civilizations and religions in the world cannot do.Therefore, from the perspective of national civilization, Chinese civilization is most likely to unify all mankind.

But unfortunately, at the stage of human civilization, Chinese civilization will also be restricted from the earth. "

"I have a question."

Yu Yaoying, who likes to read science fiction, raised his hand.

"Say."

"I have read some novels, which say that in the future world, the robots on the spaceship can not only repair and maintain the spaceship, but the spaceship itself is an independent large-scale processing base.

Such a spaceship can keep replicating itself as long as it finds enough mineral raw materials.This is the complete opposite of the big filter you mentioned. "

Qu Yanqiu pouted. "I think what you are reading is indeed science fiction. In the real world, it is impossible for this to happen."

"Why? Many novels are set like this. When civilization is about to perish, human beings send a fleet to spread their offspring to new planets." Yu Yaoying was very unconvinced. "In the new environment, human beings will soon thrive and rebuild civilization."

"I think it's understandable that there are robots responsible for maintenance on the spaceship." Qu Yanqiu explained. "But all they can do is repair. Use spare parts to replace damaged parts. Parts, especially core parts, cannot be produced by the spacecraft itself.

Let me give you a realistic example. Some high-strength components used in aircraft need to be formed under the pressure of a 10-ton hydraulic press.Can a spaceship fly around the universe with a 10-ton hydraulic press?

Secondly, we all know that chips are processed by specialized fabs.With the gradual improvement of the chip manufacturing process, the scale of the fab is also increasing.

Can the spacecraft carry all the equipment to produce chips?

By analogy, the higher the technical level of the equipment that can copy itself infinitely, the more difficult it is to realize. "

"You said that the population is a great filter for interstellar civilization, why can't it be other constraints? For example, the lack of a certain mineral or a certain energy on the earth?"

After a group of people brainstormed, they took turns to fight again.

"Other constraints, including techniques, technologies, theories, and even materials, can only be consequences because they can all be overcome.

In addition, from the perspective of probability theory, it is impossible for all civilizations in the universe to encounter the same difficulties at the same technical point.

Only population, this universal problem, cannot be avoided by all civilizations. "

All the questions were overthrown one by one by Qu Yanqiu.

"In your theory, there is an assumption, that is, the total population on the earth has an upper limit."

Chen Quan thought for a long time and found a new loophole.

"With the continuous development of biotechnology, the per unit area and total output of food are still rising. The total number of people that the earth can support can continue to rise.

According to your theory, as long as the total population on the earth continues to rise, the technological level of human beings can continue to improve, right? "

"wrong!"

Qu Yanqiu shook her head. "You also have to consider a population density issue.

Humans are social animals.On Earth, humans are not evenly distributed.As the total population continues to rise, the population density of large cities and central cities will inevitably continue to rise. "

"What's wrong with this?"

"Man, after all, is still a kind of animal.

Even when raising pigs and chickens, one must consider the issue of breeding density, and humans are no exception!

As long as the number of creatures per unit area exceeds a certain threshold, various plagues will inevitably break out.

This point has been proven many times in human history.

Although it is a special case for each plague, with a unique background and reasons, but from a more macro perspective, the emergence of the plague is inevitable. "

"Plague? Human plague?" A group of young people were dumbfounded.

"right!

Behind every accident, there is an inevitability.

As long as the population density exceeds a certain threshold, all kinds of strange epidemics will continue to appear.

Perhaps the advancement of technology will continue to increase this threshold, such as a good public health environment, water supply and drainage systems, etc.However, these measures cannot completely eliminate the principle of the emergence of the threshold.

Human medical and health technology is constantly improving, and viruses are also constantly evolving on the basis of fighting against it.The cost of defeating the virus will also increase.

The high-density population has created a sufficiently broad foundation for cultivation and interaction for the emergence of new viruses.As long as the trend of increasing population density does not change, sooner or later we will see virus variants that human technology cannot deal with.

In addition to the virus, there is also the phenomenon that the population growth rate is inversely proportional to the economic and cultural level.

All the evidences are showing that the total population of the earth will have a fixed upper limit. "

"Speaking of population density. If some civilizations are lucky enough to find a larger planet, wouldn't the upper limit of population increase?" Feng Yan had a new idea. "From this perspective, as long as the scale of the planet is large enough, isn't it also possible to produce breakthrough civilizations?"

"It's hard to say."

Qu Yanqiu shook her head.

"As the size of the planet increases, intelligent life may not be able to arise at all. Because as the size of the planet increases, the gravitational force also increases.

Immediately afterwards, animals need to expend more energy against gravity.The more energy your muscles need, the less your brain gets.

If you miss by a tiny bit, you can miss by thousands of miles. "

"Hearing what you said, why do I feel that this world seems to have been carefully designed?
If the diameter of the planet is too small, the total population will be insufficient, and if the diameter of the planet is too large, the individual intelligence level will be insufficient.

The cradle of cultivating mankind is itself a natural prison for mankind? "

After Yu Yaoying finished speaking, everyone had a similar feeling.
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"I want to talk to you alone."

Chen Quan said very seriously.He has been completely convinced by Qu Yanqiu.

Even though Qu Yanqiu's speculation about 'them' was wrong, Chen Quan still felt that this was a good idea.

A person is not afraid of being used, but he is afraid that he is not even worth being used.

(End of this chapter)