Siheyuan: The Ambition of Sanzang

Chapter 352 30. How long is the honeymoon period

"Boss, there's nothing wrong with that. On the surface, Luguo really seems to be in full swing, just because it has made a fortune, and its science and technology and labor productivity have not improved significantly." Sanzang explained earnestly. .

"Wait, why did you make such a judgment?" Boss Duan frowned, instinctively disbelieving.

"Boss, if you go to Hong Kong City and buy a newspaper casually, you will know that Lu Country has been importing a large amount of grain from the international market in recent years, and the increase is still increasing year by year, which fully demonstrates that at this point."

"Why? Isn't this a normal thing?" Boss Duan asked suspiciously.

"My big boss, this is very abnormal. Lu country now has the largest black land area in the world, reaching 190 million square kilometers. Just relying on this land alone, it can feed more than five times their current population. More than that,

But it actually has to import a large amount of grain from the international market. In 1981 alone, it imported 4600 million tons of grain from the international market. You can find this in any regular business newspaper.Big boss, tell me, is this normal? "

"Hey, I didn't expect Lu Country to have such a big problem." Boss Duan frowned tightly after hearing this, "But it still looks very powerful, and it needs a lot of money to maintain this situation , so where does its money come from?"

"Oil, the price of international crude oil rose from US$10 per barrel during the first oil crisis to US$20 per barrel during the second oil crisis, and then skyrocketed to US$1980 per barrel at the end of 41. In [-],

It has been hovering around 30 US dollars per barrel, and the country is now the world's largest oil producer. In 82, its output reached the peak of 6.2 million tons. You are always pinching your fingers to calculate how much money it makes , it is now like an upstart who made a fortune. "

"Understood, it turned out to be like this, but its current life is as nourishing as it can be." Boss Duan shook his head after hearing this.

"Big boss, it's like this. The two oil crises have hit the economies of western developed countries hard and plunged into a severe recession, which in itself has greatly reduced the demand for international oil.

At the same time, being hit and taught by the two oil crises, western developed countries have begun to seek alternative energy sources, further reducing the demand for international oil.

At the same time, the country's oil exploration and development have been strengthened to increase the supply. Under the action of these three forces, the oil consumption in the international market has dropped significantly. "

"Just this alone doesn't seem to have much impact on Lu Country, does it?"

"Yes, the international oil price is still rising, but from 1980 to 1982, the cyclical economic crisis broke out in the western developed countries, and the consumption of oil further dropped significantly, and now it has turned into a negative growth.

Now that the entire international oil industry has fallen into a comprehensive and serious overproduction, the international oil price will soon plummet, and the Americans may take advantage of the situation, and it is not impossible to manipulate the international crude oil price to $10 per barrel , You said, can the Lu people still have a good life? "

"Hiss." Boss Duan gasped, "Then it's not going to be easy at best. The rotten boat still has three catties of nails, so it shouldn't be very difficult."

"Hmph." Sanzang sneered, "Where is this? Don't forget that Lu Country still needs to import a large amount of grain from the international market every year, and the pricing power of international grain is controlled by the Americans. hands,
It will definitely not miss such a good opportunity to sell grain to Lu country in large quantities at low prices, making Lu country depend on it for food, and then manipulate international grain prices to skyrocket. Lu country really has not had a good few years. "

"This... Americans shouldn't do this, right?" Boss Duan said uncertainly.

"Big boss, I will definitely do it. This move is very lethal, and it doesn't take too much effort to use it. It's the best."

"Hmm... If this is the case, the country of Lu can't make much money from oil, and has to spend huge sums of money to maintain a huge oil industry, and spend real money on food imports,
It seems that it is indeed a little hanging, but its family has a big business, so it will be defeated for many years. "Boss Duan shook his head, still not daring to believe it easily.

"Boss, Luguo has been competing with the Americans in various aspects for such a long time. If the Americans fool him a few more times, the huge amount of real money in his hands will be spent in no time.

And the Lu people are used to living a good life, it is easy to go from frugality to extravagance, but difficult to go from extravagance to frugality, the ending can be imagined. " Sanzang talked eloquently.

"Well, your idea is quite good, but all your speculations are based on the fact that the National Assembly was deceived, but what if it is not deceived, such a big matter can only be guessed."

"Luguo will definitely be deceived, because the American people will honestly invest in real money in the early stage, and it can only follow suit when it sees this." Sanzang said with a smile on his face.

"But if you pay so much money, the American people probably won't be able to bear it. It's a trick to kill [-] enemies and hurt [-]." Boss Duan frowned.

"It must be able to bear it. First of all, money is not a one-time investment. It only needs to be invested in period by period. When it is invested is what it is. The second is that the US dollar is a hard currency in the international financial system. Everyone Trust it and use it, which means it can irresponsibly borrow money from other countries.”

"Wait, why is that?"

"It's very simple. Its debts to other countries are denominated in U.S. dollars, and what is a U.S. dollar? The U.S. dollar is essentially a piece of paper. It can print as much money as it wants.
The resulting inflation is paid for by other countries.It is equivalent to having a cheating device. If Lu Guo fights with it, sooner or later he will lose, it's just a matter of time. "

"Understood, so you judge that there will be a big crisis in Lu, and it won't be long?"

"Yes, I guess it will take more than ten years." Sanzang knew that he could no longer be a magic stick at this time, and it was right to say the time was longer.

"So you judge that this honeymoon period will not be too long, hurry up and invest huge sums of money in ITRI to introduce and track foreign strategic high-tech research, once the current situation undergoes major changes, the Americans will turn their guns To deal with us, it will be very difficult to get some advanced technology and equipment in the future.”

"Yes." Sanzang nodded slowly.

"I have to admire your good intentions, but have you ever thought about it? If things don't go as you imagined, you will lose a lot."

"I thought about it, but it's nothing. The sooner you catch up with technology, the better. It will become more and more difficult later on. Even if things don't develop as I imagined, but it has driven technological progress, I am satisfied."

"I see, are you really willing? If you stick to it for more than ten years, you will be able to invest two or three billion US dollars. This is a huge number." Boss Duan looked at Sanzang with piercing eyes.

　thank you very much!
　　
　
(End of this chapter)