Xinshun 1730

Chapter 953 Crisis Step by Step
It sounds like good news is coming from Europe.

Moreover, Liu Yu won the bet. Britain did not choose to gamble on the country's fortune. It had just finished fighting the Austrian King's Succession War and popular public opinion against Dashun.

But in fact, in Liu Yu's view, this is not only a good opportunity for China... but also a huge challenge for Dashun.

Set aside any preconceived positions.

Push aside any progressive or reactionary criticism.

Just from the perspective of economy and finance, it is easy to understand the huge crisis and challenges that Dashun is facing now.

Dashun does not have large gold or silver mines, but silver and copper coins are used as legal tender.

It means that the country does not have the right to issue silver banknotes, but only the right to issue copper coins.

Last year, the Dashun Coin Minting Bureau produced 1048759660 coins, equivalent to 104 million taels of silver.

In other words, the amount of money issued by the "central bank" of Dashun last year was 104 million taels.

Last year, counting the funds returned by the Western Trading Company this year, the total trade surplus of Dashun, including Japan, Nanyang, India and the total trade area of ​​Europe and America, was 4200 million taels.

In other words, the amount of money issued by the central bank of the country is one-fortieth of the influx of foreign currency.

Every year, 40 times the amount of hot money "printed" by the central bank pours in, and it can be used directly without the need for local currency exchange, and it is even a tax-approved currency.

The total fiscal revenue of the central government of the country, that is, the white revenue on the surface, is only 3000 million taels of silver.

The country tacitly allows local governments to use apportionment and other methods, which is the so-called gray income, to pay local expenses.It is about three to five times the central fiscal revenue, about 3000 million taels to [-] million taels.

Such a big country collects 3000 million taels of national tax, and any fool knows that it is not enough.At most, maintain the frontier expenses and one-time army, as well as the salaries of officials.

If there is a slight natural disaster, the treasury will have to bottom out.

Knowing that taxes are not enough, they still don’t increase taxes, acquiescing to the local government to pay local expenditures through labor, apportionment and other means.

White income, far lower than gray income, will inevitably lead to a sharp increase in the cost of governance.

The reason why it hasn't collapsed yet is because under the gray income, there is also a black income like bribery and corruption in the late Ming Dynasty, but now the black income has not surpassed the gray income.

Anyone with common sense in economics will understand what this means when they see this set of data.

Today, the total annual fiscal revenue of the imperial household government, excluding the salt tax, cannot keep up with half of the import and export trade surplus.

The country's trade surplus and the total amount of "foreign currency" imported each year are higher than the total fiscal revenue of the central government.

The total amount of "foreign currency" imported each year is 40 times that of the country's banknotes; the total amount of "foreign currency" imported each year is about 1.5 of the total fiscal revenue.

In this case, there is no government interference at all in this country.

Land is completely free to buy and sell.

The highest loan interest rate stipulated by law is 36% per annum.

The average land rent is 50% to 60% of the annual land harvest.

The gentry class can "avoid taxes" in a "legal and reasonable" way. It doesn't mean that they don't pay national taxes, but that the Ming and Shun systems are obviously small governments. ——From the abolition of the Prime Minister in the Ming Dynasty to the reform of the Tianyou Temple in Dashun, it only strengthened the imperial power and the autocratic monarchy, not the centralization of power.

Absolute monarchy and centralized power are not the same thing.

There is an obvious contrast, the outrageous window tax in the UK, which is set to be collected in summer, and can be paid in full in autumn.

Daming or Dashun, not to mention the outrageous high-end operation that can collect all the newly added taxes in three months, just say that the gentry owes national taxes and tax money to various places, can they recover all the arrears in three years?

If you don't understand how to collect taxes, is it worthy of centralization?

There is also a comparison. During the Meiji Restoration next door, there was a hair hanging industry?
Agricultural tax still accounts for the absolute bulk of the finance, 5072 million yen, accounting for 88% of the total fiscal revenue. At that time, the yen was benchmarked against gold, 1 yen was 1.5 grams of gold, and the gold-silver ratio was 1:16, equivalent to about 8000 Ten thousand taels of silver.

Six to seven times the arable land in Japan, but the agricultural tax revenue of the national finance is a quarter of that of Japan after the Meiji land reform.

If there had been no Falling Curtain War, no Southwest War, no return of registration books, and the core land issue would not have been changed, it would have been at the level of natural protection reforms, and it might not be as good as the criticized Westernization Movement.

Liu Yu's deep hatred for the gentry class and landlords in Dashun is not because of "exploitation".

He is now the spokesperson of Dashun's emerging bourgeoisie, how can bourgeois talk about exploitation?
Only talk about "benefits", "yield rate" and "direction of capital flow".

In capital words.

He is completely from the bourgeois point of view, and has a deep hatred for landlords and gentry.

Hate to the bone, wishing it could not be completely eliminated.

Dashun's two most profitable investments are land purchases and financial usury.

As the spokesperson of the bourgeoisie, he wants to engage in industry, commerce, capital flow, and capital investment. As a result, the gentry and landlords in Dashun make it difficult for him to walk.

Industry, industry, we all know that the future of the country is developing industry, but all the fucking capital is going to land and usury, how to develop?

What is the annual rate of return of the living fossil of the British Industrial Revolution, Quolibank Hydro Spinning Mill?

13%!

It was exclaimed by the United Kingdom as "three times the income of national debt", "unprecedented high-yield investment", and "a morning star leading capital flow to the textile industry".

Dashun doesn't say anything about the edge-of-the-line, but completely follows the "Dashun Law". What is the annual rate of return?British government bonds, basically equal to the maximum interest rate stipulated.

If the textile industry wants to achieve the same gold-absorbing effect as in the UK, that is, "three times the income of the national debt" exclaimed by the British, the annual rate of return must reach 108%.

How can the annual rate of return of the real industry reach such a high level?Open an alchemy room to refine gold?

What is the annual income of the land with the wonderful policy of [-] taxes and [-] tax, the brain congestion policy of gentry exempting miscellaneous labor and local apportionment?
A few years ago, in Shanghai County, Songjiang Prefecture under extreme conditions, the land price was 2.4 taels of silver per mu, the land rent was 6 cents of silver a year, and the yield was 40%.

At one time, there was a trend that "the owner is not as good as the tenant", and the self-cultivating farmers voluntarily sold their land to become tenants, avoiding handyman and local apportionment.

Let’s not talk about Shanghai County in those years under extreme conditions, but only talk about northern Jiangsu where Dashun’s Nanyang policy has been implemented in recent years.

In addition to ground rent, there are other benefits.

Is it profitable to lend nearby?
The daughter-in-law and daughter of the tenant farmers are free, is it income?It costs money to go to Kiln Street.

During the slack season, let the tenant farmers perform hard labor, repair the ridges, dams, houses, and walls, is it a profit?
To avoid the owner's first and last name.If you want to pay for the owner's father, even if you kill the dog, you have to watch the dog's death and cry for mourning. Is it a profit?
Hungry enough to eat the big family, more than 30 people were directly buried alive, and they were labeled as "conspiracy". If the emperor knew that there would be no punishment, would it be a gain?

This is centralization?This is clearly a modified version of the free land sale policy of the medieval enfeoffment and serfdom.

The key is that the knights still have to fulfill their feudal obligations, and they have to send troops. Landlords and gentry only need to pay the national tax of [-] taxes. Which feudal knights have such low feudal obligations plus feudal tribute?

If you don't care about anything, the rate of return of any industry can reach 40%?

A single bourgeois can transform into a landlord or a usurer.

Liu Yu, as the spokesperson of Dashun's bourgeoisie, represents the interests of the entire emerging class, so it is only natural that he hates the gentry and landlords deeply, to the bone.

As far as land issues and tax policies are concerned, a lot of things he has done in the past 20 years have been taken off his pants and farted.

But now?

This place is busy with foreign trade, and when you turn around, you have to worry about a huge amount of silver flowing into the land, so you have to engage in paper currency exchange certificates, and try to keep hot money from flowing into the land.

Fighting wits with the British consumes one-fifth of the energy, and the remaining four-fifths of energy are all fighting the land.

If he doesn't do this, he can only learn from the history of Manchu chiefs who did Xiaosi:
Gan Xiaosi took the lead in corruption, accepting bribes, asking for money, openly robbing, and working as a white-glove agent. He used various means to collect silver from foreign trade inflows, and then spent it in wars, disaster relief, and garden repairs.

But that is of no use, it doesn't involve the fundamentals, it's just tinkering to maintain the small peasant economy.Change to someone who is not so talented as a "political animal", and the prototype will be revealed immediately.

Besides, counting on the emperor is like opening a blind box for later generations.

The chances of Liu Che, Li Er, and Zhu Yuanzhang at the SSR level are too low.

Even for the Chinese Empire, in the face of this great change unseen in a thousand years, the top priority is not to draw cards like Liu Che and Li Er, but to never draw cards like Zhu Qizhen and Zhao Gou.

You can't count on the emperor, and Liu Yu has no ability to rebel in a prosperous age, so he will naturally feel uncomfortable all over if he engages in quick and messy violent land reform.

When I look at the gentry every day, I think about the rate of return on land and the rate of return on industry and commerce. All the gentry and landlords in my eyes are symbols of economic land rent.

Liu Yu has used almost all the means he can use.

Including but not limited to:

The child army, a secret service organization directly under the emperor, was used to monitor the silver flow of these maritime merchant groups.

Get rid of pants and fart silver coupons, try to control the silver that exceeds the total fiscal revenue of the imperial court every year, and don't flow to places that shouldn't flow.

It is completely reactionary to stand on the side of "perpetual ban on all walks and call for rest", using lower labor costs in exchange for industrial and commercial profits that are slightly higher than the return on land rent, begging capital to set up handicraft workshops.

Using the status of feudal aristocrats and the relationship with nobles and nobles, to kill chickens and monkeys to deal with "innocent" big merchants who used a large amount of overseas silver to buy land.There is no law in the Dashun Law that cannot buy and sell land.

Resisting the infamy of literati and gentry poking the backbone, carry out the [-]th tax reform in southern Jiangsu, reduce the burden on self-cultivating farmers, increase land prices, and reduce land rent income.

The hundreds of thousands of people in the Dayuling area who lost their jobs due to the transfer of commercial centers lied to their ears and steal their bells. The gentleman stayed away from the kitchen, knowing that the emperor might choose to suppress it by force, and he did not take the initiative to say "who develops, who protects", so that the industrial and commercial groups in Songjiang Prefecture are more Pay this tax as a fiscal transfer payment.

Acquiesce in the development of the population trade in Nanyang.Knowing that they are debt slaves and contract slaves, they do not admit that they are slaves, but say they are contract long-term workers, in order to reduce the development cost of Nanyang, increase the rate of return on capital, and let capital flow to Nanyang instead of domestic land.

Colluded with Westerners, borrowed silver from Western Financial Capital Group, and paid 7% interest per year, but resolutely refused to support "national capital" and did not ask them to borrow 20% annual interest loans.

Pay more than 20 taels of silver every year, engage in young crop loans in southern Jiangsu, and strive to reduce the income from lending in southern Jiangsu, so that some 12% of the industrial and commercial industries that no one cares about before, some people start to invest.

In order to violate the righteousness of "cheap rice hurts farmers", import Nanyang rice, reduce industrial and commercial costs, reduce the real rent income of landlords, and increase the relative return on industrial and commercial investment in disguise.

They are obviously the regulators of the government, but they want to be like grandsons, like coaxing children, coaxing these emerging classes to achieve the company policy of "high accumulation, low dividends".

He has already tried his best to set the company policy of "high accumulation, low dividend" at the dividend conference this time.

Engaged in the opium case, lesson plans, closed the Anglo-Portuguese business hall.

The Danish business house was seized and tax was increased.

Engage in hunger marketing that cut off the spice trade for a year or two.

Coupled with the special circumstances of Southeast Asia and India.

The result of exhausting all possible means is to make the trade start well, and the red turn purple, and the profit rate is pulled to an extremely high level.

Then turn extremely high into high, saying it is "high accumulation, low dividends", but in fact this "low" is also relative.

The situation that was finally opened up seems infinitely beautiful, with a promising future, but it is actually extremely fragile.

This kind of good situation is extremely abnormal, and it has exhausted all the means Liu Yu can use.

The imperial court has no money, and the six governments cannot use money to fill the bottomless navy. They can only rely on the high accumulation policy of commerce and trade to pile up enough navy to seize sea control.

The European war is clouded, and the next war may start within ten years. Will the extremely high accumulation rate this year be maintained within ten years?Can you save a family that can seize command of the sea?
These issues, which seem to be related to the navy, are actually closely related to Dashun's land and tax policies.

This year's dividend annual interest rate is finally determined to be 17%.

This is what Liu Yu said about "high accumulation, low dividends".It's actually quite high.

If the land and taxation policies are changed so that the profit rate of capital investment in land and lending is not so high, in fact, the annual interest rate of dividends can continue to decline.

If it can be like the UK, the average return on investment is only about 5%.

Then, as long as the rate of return on Western trade can reach 10%, investors will flock to it.

With an annual dividend of 10%, at least a few more battleships can be built every year.

But now, if the pressure is reduced to 10%, then Xiyang Trading Company has only one result: that is a Dutch-funded enterprise.

There will be no gentry or businessmen investing in Dashun, and the rate of return is too low.

Liu Yu has a piece of intelligence related to the "land return" in the UK, so he can know how much headache he is facing now.

The cost of buying a 100-acre plantation in a sugar-producing place like Jamaica or Barbados in the UK is about 5700 pounds.

And what is its rate of return?The average income of this 500 acres is [-] pounds-sucrose is risky, and small farmers cannot bear price fluctuations, so they can only calculate the average.

In other words, the annual rate of return is 9% to 10%.

And the plantations in places like Jamaica and Barbados are the first-class and sought-after products, and they are Caribbean tropical islands that "wouldn't trade for the whole of Canada".

In other words, an average annual rate of return of 9% can make the British take the lead.

But in Dashun, with an average annual rate of return of 9%, don’t even think about breaking the bank. It is estimated that the government must force apportionment to be forced to operate, and you will be dissatisfied.

Why was Dashun able to develop Nanyang?
Because the price of a smuggled black slave is 150 taels, and those who declare taxes add 30 taels; an average European contract slave is about 36 taels a year;

A qualified European sailor has an annual salary of 120 taels; while the best Chinese sailors have an annual salary of 36 taels.

A qualified first officer of a European merchant ship who can travel to Asia earns 300 taels a year, plus a certain quota for private goods sales. Of course, it is cheaper to go to the Caribbean, 180 taels.

And the outstanding ones who understand mathematics, geometry, cartography, can speak French or Latin almost, can seamlessly learn to use the moon phase map to calculate longitude in the future, and are basically at the level of chief officer of a warship, the annual salary of Dashun Merchant Marine is 120 taels.

A frigate with 350 tons of guns costs 8500 pounds and 30000 taels of silver; while in Dashun, a frigate of the same specification and guns of the same specification has been reduced to 12000 taels of silver by the technology of sawing wood by steam engines and boring guns.

To such an extent, relying on the "Nanyang immigration" that is almost contract slavery, as well as relying on the imperial court's orders for grain rice, and the full profit from trade with Europe, this is the only way to maintain the "shanghai" in Nanyang. Investable".

And where is the root?After all, it is still the land issue of the landlords and gentry.

The yield and land rent of the land are too high.

Dashun doesn’t need land reform, even if it can achieve [-]% rent reduction, all these troubles will be gone, and capital will spontaneously flow to Southeast Asia, Ezo, Whale Sea, industry and commerce, and overseas trade.

The most painful thing in the world is not not knowing where the way out is.

It's that they know the way out and where the problem is, but they can't do anything about it.

(End of this chapter)